River Flood Warning 11, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
742 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 739 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

 - A round of strong to severe storms will be possible on Wednesday.

 - Several chances for beneficial rainfall are expected through
   Saturday with rainfall totals of around 2 to 4 inches possible.

 - Strong winds return this weekend to area waters, creating
   hazardous conditions for small craft.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 739 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Activity is starting to increase sooner than expected over the
forecast area. If this activity limits heating today, the risk of
severe weather may be less with the decrease in instability. KMOB
VWP is pretty meh with deep layer winds at this time, keeping any
influx of warmer air off the Gulf on the limited side. Stay
tuned!
/16

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 726 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

SPC has updated their Day 1 outlook from a Marginal to a Slight.
Am still especting an increase in coverage and strength in
thunderstorm coverage through the day as a weak cold front sags
south across the forecast area this afternoon into tonight, before
stalling near the northern Gulf coast by Thursday morn.
/16

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

An upper ridge centered over Mexico shifts west as shortwave energy
continues to move quickly through the generally zonal upper flow
over the Conus. This shifting of the upper ridge will allow more of
the impulses to pass over the Southeast through the rest of the week
into the weekend. Daily showers and thunderstorms will help to ease
drought conditions over the forecast area. A weak cold front is
forecast to sag south over the forecast area today into tonight,
helping to provide the focus for isentropic upglide induced
convection the next few days as it stalls along the northern Gulf
coast. Ahead of the front, enough instability is present (SBCapes in
the 2500-3000J/kg range) for strong storms to form. Wind shear is
enough (Bulk and EBWD shear around 45kts), though limited in the
lowest 1-2km and presenting a linear profile, for some organization
to be possible. Mid level lapse rates this afternoon ahead of the
front are advertised around 7C in the guidance, meaning hail is
possible. Also, guidance is advertising the nose of a modest 80kt
upper level jet passing over the southern half of the Southeast this
afternoon into this evening, helping with storm strength. All
ingredients are good enough for strong to severe storms, with
damaging winds, hail the primary threats, though a brief spinup is
possible. Helping to temper the severe risk, model soundings show
the stronger winds (50kts and up) are above 500mb, so it will take
some taller storms. Also, with a pretty soupy sounding (precipitable
h20 values of 1.7"-1.9"), limited to no upper level dry air is
present to entrain into any downdrafts and help with the damaging
winds, though it will help for these storms to be efficient rainers.
Localized water issues are also a possibility today into tonight.

Thursday into the weekend, surface based instability over the
forecast area decreases, though enough is available above for
rumblers to mix in. The rest of the ingredients for strong to severe
storms drop, so am not expecting any organized severe storms. Still,
daily showers and thunderstorms are expected into the Saturday, when
a second, stronger cold front moves south over the forecast area.

Temperatures will see a downward trend into the weekend due to a
combination of rain and cooler air moving over the forecast area.
High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s today drop into the mid
60s to around 70 for Saturday. Low temperatures in the 60s tonight
drop into the around 50 to upper 50s for Friday night.

For the forecast (Saturday through Tuesday), an upper ridge builds
north from Mexico to over the Plains, bringing a return of
temperatures a bit above seasonal norms, low to mid 80s, but
Tuesday.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a Low Risk is
expected through the week, though the risk bumps Moderate Levels
today. A Moderate Risk, maybe High Risk returns Friday night
Saturday as onshore flow increases ahead of a second cold front
expected to cross the forecast area Saturday.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Conditions across the forecast area ranged from LIFR to VFR. Am
expecting these variable conditions to continue as shower and
thunderstorm continues. This activity is expected to continue
into the evening, with a weak cold front sagging south over the
forecast area. Post front, general drops in conditions to IFR or
lower is possible. southerly winds around 5 knots will shift to
westerly 5 to 10 knots this morning, then northerly around 5 knots
behind the weakening cold front.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 125 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will become
more variable, then temporarily offshore later tonight into Thursday
as a cold front sags south over area coastal waters and stalls.
Winds shift to easterly, then return to onshore by Friday night
ahead of another cold front approaching the northern Gulf coast.
This front will cross area waters Saturday, bringing moderate to
strong offshore flow follows for the rest of the weekend, with a
Small Craft Advisory likely.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      87  65  79  60 /  40  60  50  40
Pensacola   84  68  80  65 /  20  50  50  30
Destin      80  69  79  65 /  20  50  50  40
Evergreen   89  62  78  55 /  50  80  50  30
Waynesboro  87  61  74  55 /  70  80  50  40
Camden      86  60  74  54 /  60  80  50  30
Crestview   89  63  81  59 /  30  60  60  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
955 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

ALZ051-291545-
Choctaw AL-
955 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN CHOCTAW COUNTY THROUGH
1045 AM CDT...

At 955 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Snell, or 12 miles northeast of Quitman, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Butler, Lisman, and Pennington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3226 8801 3218 8801 3215 8802 3214 8804
      3209 8804 3206 8807 3207 8810 3205 8812
      3201 8811 3201 8809 3199 8807 3195 8808
      3197 8809 3195 8812 3193 8809 3188 8815
      3201 8846 3229 8843 3229 8842
TIME...MOT...LOC 1455Z 289DEG 34KT 3215 8854

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Black