River Flood Warning 10, NWS Mobile, AL

468 
WGUS84 KMOB 300146
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
846 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Washington and Clarke 
  Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam, Coffeeville Dam 
- upstream, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/mob. Click on 
the Rivers and Lakes menu for forecasts and observations.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC025-129-010200-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0010.260503T2125Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.260503T2125Z.260505T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
846 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Leroy.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 24.0 feet, flooding of low lying farm and 
  pasturelands begins. Cattle in low lying areas should be moved to 
  higher ground. Water approaches low lying roads on west side of 
  river.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 PM CDT Wednesday the stage was 3.7 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    Sunday afternoon and continue rising to 24.9 feet Monday
    evening. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
  - Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
      3114 8802 3149 8793


$$

241 
WGUS84 KMOB 301446
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
946 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Washington and Clarke 
  Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam, Coffeeville Dam 
- upstream, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/mob. Click on 
the Rivers and Lakes menu for forecasts and observations.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC025-129-011500-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0010.260503T2125Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.260503T2125Z.260505T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
946 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL 
FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Leroy.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 24 feet, flooding of low lying farm and pasturelands 
  begins. Cattle in low lying areas should be moved to higher 
  ground. Water approaches low lying roads on west side of river.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:00 AM CDT Thursday the stage was 6.3 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    Sunday afternoon and continue rising to 24.9 feet Monday
    evening. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
  - Flood stage is 24 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
      3114 8802 3149 8793


$$

BB

049 
WGUS84 KMOB 010128
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
828 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Washington and Clarke 
  Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam, Coffeeville Dam 
- upstream, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/mob. Click on 
the Rivers and Lakes menu for forecasts and observations.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC025-129-020130-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0010.260503T0930Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.260503T0930Z.260505T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
828 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL 
FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Leroy.

* WHEN...From late Saturday night until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 24.0 feet, flooding of low lying farm and 
  pasturelands begins. Cattle in low lying areas should be moved to 
  higher ground. Water approaches low lying roads on west side of 
  river.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 PM CDT Thursday the stage was 10.2 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    early Sunday morning and continue rising to a crest of 25.1
    feet Monday evening.
  - Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
      3114 8802 3149 8793


$$

203 
WGUS84 KMOB 020138
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
838 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Clarke and Washington 
  Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam, Coffeeville Dam 
- upstream, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/mob. Click on 
the Rivers and Lakes menu for forecasts and observations.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC025-129-030145-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0010.260503T0515Z-260504T1435Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.260503T0515Z.260503T1800Z.260504T0834Z.NO/
838 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT TO LATE 
MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Leroy.

* WHEN...From late Saturday night to late Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 24.0 feet, flooding of low lying farm and 
  pasturelands begins. Cattle in low lying areas should be moved to 
  higher ground. Water approaches low lying roads on west side of 
  river.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 PM CDT Friday the stage was 17.2 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    early Sunday morning to a crest of 24.5 feet early Sunday
    afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage early Monday
    morning.
  - Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
      3114 8802 3149 8793


$$

460 
WGUS84 KMOB 021618
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1118 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Washington and Clarke 
  Counties.

For the Tombigbee River...including Coffeeville Dam, Coffeeville Dam 
- upstream, Leroy...Minor flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/mob. Click on 
the Rivers and Lakes menu for forecasts and observations.

The next statement will be issued when updates occur.


&&

ALC025-129-031630-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0010.260503T1500Z-260504T0200Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.260503T1500Z.260503T1800Z.260503T2000Z.NO/
1118 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO LATE TOMORROW 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tombigbee River near Leroy.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning to late tomorrow evening.

* IMPACTS...At 24 feet, flooding of low lying farm and pasturelands 
  begins. Cattle in low lying areas should be moved to higher 
  ground. Water approaches low lying roads on west side of river.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:00 AM CDT Saturday the stage was 19.5 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    late tomorrow morning to a crest of 24.1 feet early tomorrow
    afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage tomorrow
    afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 24 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
      3114 8802 3149 8793


$$

BB

360 
WGUS84 KMOB 030151
FLSMOB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
851 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Alabama...

  Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Clarke and Washington 
  Counties.

ALC025-129-030300-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0010.260503T1500Z-260503T0151Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
851 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Tombigbee River Near Leroy.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 PM CDT Saturday the stage was 20.2 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 20.6
    feet Sunday morning.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8804 3149 8786 3114 8792
      3114 8802 3149 8793


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
742 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 739 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

 - A round of strong to severe storms will be possible on Wednesday.

 - Several chances for beneficial rainfall are expected through
   Saturday with rainfall totals of around 2 to 4 inches possible.

 - Strong winds return this weekend to area waters, creating
   hazardous conditions for small craft.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 739 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Activity is starting to increase sooner than expected over the
forecast area. If this activity limits heating today, the risk of
severe weather may be less with the decrease in instability. KMOB
VWP is pretty meh with deep layer winds at this time, keeping any
influx of warmer air off the Gulf on the limited side. Stay
tuned!
/16

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 726 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

SPC has updated their Day 1 outlook from a Marginal to a Slight.
Am still especting an increase in coverage and strength in
thunderstorm coverage through the day as a weak cold front sags
south across the forecast area this afternoon into tonight, before
stalling near the northern Gulf coast by Thursday morn.
/16

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

An upper ridge centered over Mexico shifts west as shortwave energy
continues to move quickly through the generally zonal upper flow
over the Conus. This shifting of the upper ridge will allow more of
the impulses to pass over the Southeast through the rest of the week
into the weekend. Daily showers and thunderstorms will help to ease
drought conditions over the forecast area. A weak cold front is
forecast to sag south over the forecast area today into tonight,
helping to provide the focus for isentropic upglide induced
convection the next few days as it stalls along the northern Gulf
coast. Ahead of the front, enough instability is present (SBCapes in
the 2500-3000J/kg range) for strong storms to form. Wind shear is
enough (Bulk and EBWD shear around 45kts), though limited in the
lowest 1-2km and presenting a linear profile, for some organization
to be possible. Mid level lapse rates this afternoon ahead of the
front are advertised around 7C in the guidance, meaning hail is
possible. Also, guidance is advertising the nose of a modest 80kt
upper level jet passing over the southern half of the Southeast this
afternoon into this evening, helping with storm strength. All
ingredients are good enough for strong to severe storms, with
damaging winds, hail the primary threats, though a brief spinup is
possible. Helping to temper the severe risk, model soundings show
the stronger winds (50kts and up) are above 500mb, so it will take
some taller storms. Also, with a pretty soupy sounding (precipitable
h20 values of 1.7"-1.9"), limited to no upper level dry air is
present to entrain into any downdrafts and help with the damaging
winds, though it will help for these storms to be efficient rainers.
Localized water issues are also a possibility today into tonight.

Thursday into the weekend, surface based instability over the
forecast area decreases, though enough is available above for
rumblers to mix in. The rest of the ingredients for strong to severe
storms drop, so am not expecting any organized severe storms. Still,
daily showers and thunderstorms are expected into the Saturday, when
a second, stronger cold front moves south over the forecast area.

Temperatures will see a downward trend into the weekend due to a
combination of rain and cooler air moving over the forecast area.
High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s today drop into the mid
60s to around 70 for Saturday. Low temperatures in the 60s tonight
drop into the around 50 to upper 50s for Friday night.

For the forecast (Saturday through Tuesday), an upper ridge builds
north from Mexico to over the Plains, bringing a return of
temperatures a bit above seasonal norms, low to mid 80s, but
Tuesday.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a Low Risk is
expected through the week, though the risk bumps Moderate Levels
today. A Moderate Risk, maybe High Risk returns Friday night
Saturday as onshore flow increases ahead of a second cold front
expected to cross the forecast area Saturday.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Conditions across the forecast area ranged from LIFR to VFR. Am
expecting these variable conditions to continue as shower and
thunderstorm continues. This activity is expected to continue
into the evening, with a weak cold front sagging south over the
forecast area. Post front, general drops in conditions to IFR or
lower is possible. southerly winds around 5 knots will shift to
westerly 5 to 10 knots this morning, then northerly around 5 knots
behind the weakening cold front.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 125 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will become
more variable, then temporarily offshore later tonight into Thursday
as a cold front sags south over area coastal waters and stalls.
Winds shift to easterly, then return to onshore by Friday night
ahead of another cold front approaching the northern Gulf coast.
This front will cross area waters Saturday, bringing moderate to
strong offshore flow follows for the rest of the weekend, with a
Small Craft Advisory likely.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      87  65  79  60 /  40  60  50  40
Pensacola   84  68  80  65 /  20  50  50  30
Destin      80  69  79  65 /  20  50  50  40
Evergreen   89  62  78  55 /  50  80  50  30
Waynesboro  87  61  74  55 /  70  80  50  40
Camden      86  60  74  54 /  60  80  50  30
Crestview   89  63  81  59 /  30  60  60  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
955 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

ALZ051-291545-
Choctaw AL-
955 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN CHOCTAW COUNTY THROUGH
1045 AM CDT...

At 955 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Snell, or 12 miles northeast of Quitman, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Butler, Lisman, and Pennington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3226 8801 3218 8801 3215 8802 3214 8804
      3209 8804 3206 8807 3207 8810 3205 8812
      3201 8811 3201 8809 3199 8807 3195 8808
      3197 8809 3195 8812 3193 8809 3188 8815
      3201 8846 3229 8843 3229 8842
TIME...MOT...LOC 1455Z 289DEG 34KT 3215 8854

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Black