Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
329 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

...New MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

 - A round of strong to severe storms will impact the area this
   afternoon and evening.

 - Several chances for beneficial rainfall are expected through
   Saturday with rainfall totals of around 2 to 4 inches possible.

 - Strong winds return this weekend to area waters, creating
   hazardous conditions for small craft.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Synopsis...Latest surface analysis is showing a cold front
extending from Kentucky to central Texas. This front is being
pushed slowly southeastward between a surface low pressure area
centered across the eastern Ohio River Valley and a surface high
pressure area centered across Kansas. This cold front will be our
main focus for convection this afternoon and evening as it
advances through the northern portions of Mississippi and Alabama,
eventually reaching roughly to the I-65 corridor by early
Thursday morning. This front will eventually move south of the
coast Thursday evening and then stalls Friday morning as an
inverted surface trough forms across the western Gulf coastline.
This stalled boundary should momentarily lift back northward as a
warm front to near our coast Friday afternoon and evening as the
inverted trough becomes quite elongated by the Saturday morning,
extending from the southwest Gulf to the Florida Panhandle. The
departures of the surface trough to our east will reinforce the
northerly wind flow on Saturday as high pressure builds into the
region from the northwest. Looking aloft...a southern jet stream
merges with a northern jet stream over the southern Rockies and
extends eastward across much of the country. There are signatures
of upper difluence and impulses between this jet and a broad upper
ridging to our south that will remain through late tonight. This
jet streak will strengthen Thursday into Friday but lift northward
further from our area.

Severe thunderstorms...In coordination with The Storm Prediction
Center, we have issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 181 that remains
on effect until 9 PM this evening. Ahead of an eventual expanding
cluster of convection with possible discrete thunderstorm activity
south of the advancing cold front, ample warm air advection is
ongoing with upper 60 to lower 70 dewpoints already in place. The
latest meso-analysis is showing surface based instability values
around 2,500 to 3,000j/kg and mixed layer instability values
around 1,500 to 2,000j/kg. Effective Bulk Shear is currently
around 50 knots, and the maximum 2-6km AGL Lapse Rates are quite
high ranging from 7.5 to 8.0C/km. Under these conditions we are
anticipating damaging gusts and an isolated risk for large hail as
the primary hazards with the stronger storms. Effective Storm
Relative Helicity values are currently nominal at around 50m2/s2,
so no significant tornadic activity is expected but we will be
monitoring the radar for any enhanced rotation. Localized nuisance
flooding is also possible across our inland areas.

Currently the anticipated timing for discrete storms is now,
especially across south central Alabama. The leading edge of the
cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms is currently entering
our southeastern Mississippi and northwestern Alabama counties,
and will impact these areas into early evening. The remaining
areas under the watch will see impacts from late this afternoon
until 9 PM this evening. Non-severe convection is expected for the
remainder of the night, but showers and storms remain into as the
aforementioned cold front passes through. A resurgence of
numerous to widespread showers and storms will occur Friday
afternoon into Saturday as additional upper impulses traverse the
region, and this is when we have a potential of more significant
rainfall to help ease the drought conditions over the forecast
area.

A much cooler and drier airmass moves into the area behind the
reinforced northerly flow with high temperatures over the weekend
topping out in the middle 60s to lower 70s, then warming into the
lower to middle 80s by Tuesday into midweek. Overnight lows follow
a similar cadence, generally in the middle to upper 40s over the
interior and lower 50s nearer the coast Saturday and Sunday
nights. Overnight lows warm into the middle 50s to lower 60s by
midweek.

Beach Forecast: A LOW risk of rip currents through Friday night is
expected to briefly become MODERATE Saturday and Saturday night
before settling back to a LOW risk on Sunday. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Predominantly MVFR or greater conditions are anticipated through
the afternoon outside of a few thunderstorms over northern
portions of the area. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in
coverage from northwest to southeast by late afternoon and early
evening, especially north of i-10. A few of these storms may be
strong to severe. Periods of showers and perhaps a few lingering
thunderstorms should continue through at least daybreak Thursday
as a weak cold front clears the area. A few drops to IFR ceilings
are possible through Thursday morning. Outside of thunderstorms,
southerly winds are expected through the afternoon at 10-15 knots,
weakening after dark and transitioning to a light northerly flow
Thursday morning. JGC/22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow through tonigh will
gradually transition to an offshore flow Thursday and Thursday
night as a cold front moves through. Winds shift predominately
easterly for Friday and an inverted surface trough approaches from
the west, followed by a moderate to strong offshore flow for the
coming weekend as the trough moves eastward. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      66  79  59  71 /  70  40  40  70
Pensacola   69  81  64  74 /  60  50  30  50
Destin      68  80  64  76 /  50  50  30  40
Evergreen   61  77  54  73 /  90  50  30  50
Waynesboro  61  74  54  64 /  80  50  40  80
Camden      60  73  53  65 /  90  40  30  60
Crestview   64  82  58  76 /  70  50  30  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
150 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

ALZ051-291930-
Choctaw AL-
150 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL CHOCTAW COUNTY
THROUGH 230 PM CDT...

At 150 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Crandall, or 14 miles east of Quitman, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Toxey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
southwestern Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3207 8806 3206 8807 3207 8808 3206 8812
      3202 8812 3199 8810 3201 8809 3198 8806
      3196 8807 3195 8808 3197 8809 3195 8812
      3193 8809 3194 8807 3193 8805 3191 8813
      3187 8813 3184 8816 3193 8847 3208 8844
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 280DEG 30KT 3200 8848

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Black

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
452 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

MSZ075-076-079-292230-
Perry MS-Greene MS-George MS-
452 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN GEORGE...PERRY AND
SOUTHWESTERN GREENE COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM CDT...

At 451 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles northeast of Beaumont to 5 miles east
of McLaurin. Movement was southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Beaumont, New Augusta, and McLain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
southeastern Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3126 8915 3125 8901 3130 8884 3101 8860
      3091 8886 3091 8914
TIME...MOT...LOC 2151Z 326DEG 22KT 3125 8879 3116 8913

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

RD