Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
259 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

- Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms this
  afternoon and evening with the potential for one or two storms
  capable of frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts, and heavy
  rainfall; a brief tornado cannot be ruled out (< 2% chance)

- A similar forecast is expected Tuesday before the arrival of
  more Saharan dust which will limit rain and storm chances mid to
  late week

- Hot and humid July temperatures will lead to afternoon heat
  indices between 102-107F each day. Make sure to practice heat
  safety!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Currently-Tonight... Current radar imagery shows a line of
scattered showers and lightning storms developing to the west of
Lake and Volusia counties moving east towards east central
Florida. GOES-16 satellite imagery and local observations shows
mostly cloudy skies across east central Florida. Analysis charts
show high pressure extended over southern Florida with a major
shortwave trough over the Midsouth/Southeastern US. Temperatures
are currently in the upper 80s to low 90s with dew points in the
mid 70s to around 80 degrees. Heat index values are generally
between 98-107F degrees.

Scattered to numerous generally offshore moving showers and
lightning storms are forecast to develop this afternoon as
collisions occur between the sea breezes and outflow from previous
storms. This morning's 15Z XMR sounding shows MLCAPE at 1,091
J/kg, MUCAPE at 3,630 J/kg, a PWAT of 1.98", 0-6km shear at 10kts,
conditionally unstable mid level lapse rates, and a 500mb
temperature of -8C. Thus, a Marginal Risk for severe storms exists
for all of east central Florida. The main hazards are frequent
lightning, damaging wind gusts up to 60mph (5-14% chance), and
heavy rainfall (1-3"+ in 30-60 minutes with a 1 in 10 chance of
rainfall amounts in excess of 3" up to 4-5" with the potential of
minor flooding of roadways and low lying areas. Additionally, a
brief tornado cannot be ruled out (<2 % chance). Additionally,
local analysis shows plenty of instability with CAPE up to 5,000
J/kg, LI up to -9, and no cap. The greatest potential for severe
storms is between until 9PM this evening beginning from
northwestern east central Florida to southeastern east central
Florida into this evening. Rain chances diminish by around
9PM/10PM as storms push offshore of the Treasure Coast. Lows in
the low to upper 70s are forecast.

Tuesday-Wednesday... A similar forecast is expected on Tuesday
with a shortwave trough over the southern US. However, there are
slightly lower precipitation chances between 40-60%. Scattered to
numerous generally offshore moving showers and lightning storms
are forecast to develop into the afternoon and evening as
collisions occur between sea breezes and outflow from previous
storms. Guidance indicates MLCAPE between 1,500-3,200 J/kg, 0-6km
shear up to 20-30kts enhanced along the local sea breeze, and
conditionally unstable mid level lapse rates, and 3KM EHI up to
1-3.5 along the coast. There is the potential for a couple to a
few strong storms capable of frequent lightning, wind gusts up to
40-55mph (< 5% chance of a storm capable of damaging wind gusts up
to 60mph), and heavy rainfall (1-2"+ with a < 5% chance of
rainfall amounts in excess of 2" up to 3-4.").

Drier weather is forecast on Wednesday as another Saharan dust
layer begins to arrive across east central Florida. Isolated to
scattered generally offshore moving showers and lightning storms
are forecast to develop into the afternoon and evening hours as
collisions occur between the sea breezes and outflow from previous
storms. The greatest chance for showers and lightning storms is
across Volusia and northern Brevard counties with offshore moving
showers and lightning storms. The potential exists for a strong
storm or two capable of frequent lightning, wind gusts up to
40-50mph, and heavy rainfall. Afternoon highs in the low to mid
90s are forecast with heat index values between 100-107F degrees.
Lows in the low to upper 70s are forecast.

Thursday-Sunday (modified previous discussion)... The surface
high will remain near to south of the area into late week and
next weekend with moisture gradually increasing once again and the
SAL diminishing. This will lead to a return of more normal
coverage of showers and storms each afternoon and evening, with
PoPs around 20-40%. Above normal heat will linger with highs in
the mid 90s for much of the area and heat index values nearing or
just below Heat Advisory thresholds. A Major HeatRisk with areas
of Extreme HeatRisk Friday and through the weekend. This level of
heat affects anyone without adequate cooling and hydration.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Currently-Friday (modified previous discussion)... The high
pressure over the western Atlantic will generally remain near to
south of the waters through the work week, with offshore winds out
of the W/SW during the overnight and morning hours, switching the
the S/SE in the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms.
Wind speeds will largely remain below 15 knots with seas 1-3
feet. Main hazard to boaters will be strong to marginally severe
offshore moving storms today and tomorrow during the
afternoon/evening. Scattered showers and storms pushing off the
coast are forecast today and Tuesday (rain chances up to 50- 60%),
with coverage of this activity decreasing through midweek. Any
storms that push offshore will be capable of producing strong wind
gusts near or in excess of 34 knots and frequent lightning
strikes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period.
Scattered showers and storms are ongoing across the western side
of FL this afternoon, slowly moving eastward towards ECFL.
Additional showers and storms will move eastward across the state
from the west coast this afternoon along the west coast sea
breeze. Have maintained VCTS at all inland terminals as well as at
DAB and TIX at 18Z, and having VCTS starting at MLB-SUA at 19/20Z.
No changes to the timing of the TEMPOs as of now, but will
monitor to see if adjustments are needed. SW-SSW winds around 5 KT
will shift E-SE behind the east coast sea breeze this afternoon
and increase to around 10 KT. Any lingering showers and storms
will dissipate or move out of the local area by 1-3Z this evening
with dry conditions overnight. Winds will become light and
variable overnight before becoming SW-SSW and increasing to around
5 KT once again by mid morning Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  92  74  93 /  10  60  20  50
MCO  75  95  76  96 /  10  60  20  20
MLB  76  93  76  93 /  50  60  30  30
VRB  75  95  75  94 /  60  40  30  20
LEE  77  92  76  94 /  10  60  20  20
SFB  76  94  76  95 /  10  60  20  30
ORL  76  93  76  94 /  10  60  20  20
FPR  75  94  74  94 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Fehling
AVIATION...Watson

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
603 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 2 WSW Port Canaveral    28.40N 80.65W
07/13/2026  M53 MPH          AMZ552             FL   Other Federal

            USSF wind sensor on tower 300 measured a
            peak wind gust of 53MPH/46KT from the
            northwest at 5:40 PM. Earlier, a gust to
            47MPH/41KT occurred at 5:30 PM. Sensor
            elevation is 54 feet.

&&

MW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
604 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0604 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 ESE Cape Canaveral SF 28.46N 80.53W
07/13/2026  M39 MPH          Brevard            FL   Other Federal

            USSF wind sensor on tower 3 measured a peak
            wind gust of 43MPH/37KT from the northwest
            at 5:40 PM. Earlier, a gust to 39MPH/34KT
            occurred at 5:35 PM. Sensor elevation is 54
            feet.

&&

MW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
607 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0553 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 SSW Melbourne         28.10N 80.65W
07/13/2026  M45 MPH          Brevard            FL   ASOS

            Melbourne International Airport measured a
            peak wind gust of 45MPH/39KT from the
            northwest at 5:53 PM.

&&

MW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
610 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 2 NE Cape Canaveral     28.41N 80.59W
07/13/2026  M40 MPH          AMZ552             FL   Mesonet

            The WeatherFlow station at Cocoa Beach -
            Jetty Park measured a peak wind gust of
            40MPH/35KT from the northwest at 5:42 PM.

&&

MW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
611 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 S Cape Canaveral SFS  28.44N 80.56W
07/13/2026  M40 MPH          Brevard            FL   Other Federal

            USSF wind sensor on tower 2 measured a peak
            wind gust of 40MPH/35KT from the northwest
            at 5:50 PM. Sensor elevation is 54 feet.

&&

MW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
621 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

FLZ058-132245-
Okeechobee FL-
621 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY
THROUGH 645 PM EDT...

At 621 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Okeechobee, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Treasure Island, Okeechobee, Four Seasons Estates, Country Hills
Estates, and Whispering Pines.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2722 8095 2722 8097 2723 8099 2725 8098
      2725 8099 2726 8100 2730 8100 2730 8102
      2737 8104 2749 8069 2723 8068 2720 8094
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 260DEG 17KT 2730 8090

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Heil