Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
259 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

- Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms this
  afternoon and evening with the potential for one or two storms
  capable of frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts, and heavy
  rainfall; a brief tornado cannot be ruled out (< 2% chance)

- A similar forecast is expected Tuesday before the arrival of
  more Saharan dust which will limit rain and storm chances mid to
  late week

- Hot and humid July temperatures will lead to afternoon heat
  indices between 102-107F each day. Make sure to practice heat
  safety!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Currently-Tonight... Current radar imagery shows a line of
scattered showers and lightning storms developing to the west of
Lake and Volusia counties moving east towards east central
Florida. GOES-16 satellite imagery and local observations shows
mostly cloudy skies across east central Florida. Analysis charts
show high pressure extended over southern Florida with a major
shortwave trough over the Midsouth/Southeastern US. Temperatures
are currently in the upper 80s to low 90s with dew points in the
mid 70s to around 80 degrees. Heat index values are generally
between 98-107F degrees.

Scattered to numerous generally offshore moving showers and
lightning storms are forecast to develop this afternoon as
collisions occur between the sea breezes and outflow from previous
storms. This morning's 15Z XMR sounding shows MLCAPE at 1,091
J/kg, MUCAPE at 3,630 J/kg, a PWAT of 1.98", 0-6km shear at 10kts,
conditionally unstable mid level lapse rates, and a 500mb
temperature of -8C. Thus, a Marginal Risk for severe storms exists
for all of east central Florida. The main hazards are frequent
lightning, damaging wind gusts up to 60mph (5-14% chance), and
heavy rainfall (1-3"+ in 30-60 minutes with a 1 in 10 chance of
rainfall amounts in excess of 3" up to 4-5" with the potential of
minor flooding of roadways and low lying areas. Additionally, a
brief tornado cannot be ruled out (<2 % chance). Additionally,
local analysis shows plenty of instability with CAPE up to 5,000
J/kg, LI up to -9, and no cap. The greatest potential for severe
storms is between until 9PM this evening beginning from
northwestern east central Florida to southeastern east central
Florida into this evening. Rain chances diminish by around
9PM/10PM as storms push offshore of the Treasure Coast. Lows in
the low to upper 70s are forecast.

Tuesday-Wednesday... A similar forecast is expected on Tuesday
with a shortwave trough over the southern US. However, there are
slightly lower precipitation chances between 40-60%. Scattered to
numerous generally offshore moving showers and lightning storms
are forecast to develop into the afternoon and evening as
collisions occur between sea breezes and outflow from previous
storms. Guidance indicates MLCAPE between 1,500-3,200 J/kg, 0-6km
shear up to 20-30kts enhanced along the local sea breeze, and
conditionally unstable mid level lapse rates, and 3KM EHI up to
1-3.5 along the coast. There is the potential for a couple to a
few strong storms capable of frequent lightning, wind gusts up to
40-55mph (< 5% chance of a storm capable of damaging wind gusts up
to 60mph), and heavy rainfall (1-2"+ with a < 5% chance of
rainfall amounts in excess of 2" up to 3-4.").

Drier weather is forecast on Wednesday as another Saharan dust
layer begins to arrive across east central Florida. Isolated to
scattered generally offshore moving showers and lightning storms
are forecast to develop into the afternoon and evening hours as
collisions occur between the sea breezes and outflow from previous
storms. The greatest chance for showers and lightning storms is
across Volusia and northern Brevard counties with offshore moving
showers and lightning storms. The potential exists for a strong
storm or two capable of frequent lightning, wind gusts up to
40-50mph, and heavy rainfall. Afternoon highs in the low to mid
90s are forecast with heat index values between 100-107F degrees.
Lows in the low to upper 70s are forecast.

Thursday-Sunday (modified previous discussion)... The surface
high will remain near to south of the area into late week and
next weekend with moisture gradually increasing once again and the
SAL diminishing. This will lead to a return of more normal
coverage of showers and storms each afternoon and evening, with
PoPs around 20-40%. Above normal heat will linger with highs in
the mid 90s for much of the area and heat index values nearing or
just below Heat Advisory thresholds. A Major HeatRisk with areas
of Extreme HeatRisk Friday and through the weekend. This level of
heat affects anyone without adequate cooling and hydration.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Currently-Friday (modified previous discussion)... The high
pressure over the western Atlantic will generally remain near to
south of the waters through the work week, with offshore winds out
of the W/SW during the overnight and morning hours, switching the
the S/SE in the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms.
Wind speeds will largely remain below 15 knots with seas 1-3
feet. Main hazard to boaters will be strong to marginally severe
offshore moving storms today and tomorrow during the
afternoon/evening. Scattered showers and storms pushing off the
coast are forecast today and Tuesday (rain chances up to 50- 60%),
with coverage of this activity decreasing through midweek. Any
storms that push offshore will be capable of producing strong wind
gusts near or in excess of 34 knots and frequent lightning
strikes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period.
Scattered showers and storms are ongoing across the western side
of FL this afternoon, slowly moving eastward towards ECFL.
Additional showers and storms will move eastward across the state
from the west coast this afternoon along the west coast sea
breeze. Have maintained VCTS at all inland terminals as well as at
DAB and TIX at 18Z, and having VCTS starting at MLB-SUA at 19/20Z.
No changes to the timing of the TEMPOs as of now, but will
monitor to see if adjustments are needed. SW-SSW winds around 5 KT
will shift E-SE behind the east coast sea breeze this afternoon
and increase to around 10 KT. Any lingering showers and storms
will dissipate or move out of the local area by 1-3Z this evening
with dry conditions overnight. Winds will become light and
variable overnight before becoming SW-SSW and increasing to around
5 KT once again by mid morning Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  92  74  93 /  10  60  20  50
MCO  75  95  76  96 /  10  60  20  20
MLB  76  93  76  93 /  50  60  30  30
VRB  75  95  75  94 /  60  40  30  20
LEE  77  92  76  94 /  10  60  20  20
SFB  76  94  76  95 /  10  60  20  30
ORL  76  93  76  94 /  10  60  20  20
FPR  75  94  74  94 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Fehling
AVIATION...Watson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
329 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

FLZ041-044-132000-
Northern Lake County FL-Inland Volusia FL-
329 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL LAKE AND CENTRAL
VOLUSIA COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

At 328 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cassia, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Deltona, DeLand, Orange City, Lake Helen, and Paisley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
safe shelter inside a sturdy building or hard-topped vehicle.
Remember, lightning can strike beyond 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. When thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2906 8125 2885 8121 2885 8136 2886 8135
      2887 8136 2888 8136 2885 8139 2884 8159
      2900 8160
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 269DEG 17KT 2891 8153

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Watson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
349 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

FLZ045-053-144-132015-
Osceola FL-Orange FL-Southern Lake County FL-
349 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL LAKE...
SOUTHWESTERN ORANGE AND NORTHWESTERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM
EDT...

At 349 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Four Corners, or near Bay Lake, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Kissimmee, Saint Cloud, Windermere, and Bay Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2847 8180 2853 8128 2821 8129 2825 8155
      2826 8156 2826 8166 2835 8166 2835 8179
      2836 8179 2836 8182
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 272DEG 30KT 2838 8165

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Heil

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
354 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

FLZ044-045-144-132030-
Northern Lake County FL-Orange FL-Southern Lake County FL-
354 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN LAKE AND
NORTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT...

At 354 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fruitland Park, or near Leesburg, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Leesburg, Eustis, Tavares, Lady Lake, and Mount Dora.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2896 8195 2896 8166 2899 8166 2898 8150
      2854 8164 2854 8195
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 271DEG 24KT 2883 8195

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Heil

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
401 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

FLZ041-045-046-141-247-347-447-132045-
Coastal Volusia FL-Northern Brevard Barrier Islands FL-Orange FL-
Seminole FL-Inland Volusia FL-Mainland Northern Brevard FL-
Inland Northern Brevard FL-
401 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SEMINOLE...NORTHWESTERN
BREVARD...CENTRAL ORANGE AND CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM
EDT...

At 400 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Daytona Beach Airport to near University Of
Central Florida. Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Deltona, Daytona Beach, Port Orange, Sanford, and Titusville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2909 8090 2888 8075 2858 8084 2858 8137
      2877 8143 2887 8137 2889 8136 2889 8135
      2890 8136 2921 8119 2923 8097
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 251DEG 23KT 2917 8106 2862 8124

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Heil