Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS Melbourne, FL

974 
WWUS52 KMLB 132158
SVSMLB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
558 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

FLC009-095-132208-
/O.EXP.KMLB.SV.W.0080.000000T0000Z-260713T2200Z/
Brevard FL-Orange FL-
558 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN BREVARD AND
SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 600 PM EDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Melbourne.

LAT...LON 2839 8056 2829 8057 2837 8100 2874 8090
      2873 8064 2860 8054 2846 8049
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 276DEG 22KT 2847 8050 

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
259 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

- Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms this
  afternoon and evening with the potential for one or two storms
  capable of frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts, and heavy
  rainfall; a brief tornado cannot be ruled out (< 2% chance)

- A similar forecast is expected Tuesday before the arrival of
  more Saharan dust which will limit rain and storm chances mid to
  late week

- Hot and humid July temperatures will lead to afternoon heat
  indices between 102-107F each day. Make sure to practice heat
  safety!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Currently-Tonight... Current radar imagery shows a line of
scattered showers and lightning storms developing to the west of
Lake and Volusia counties moving east towards east central
Florida. GOES-16 satellite imagery and local observations shows
mostly cloudy skies across east central Florida. Analysis charts
show high pressure extended over southern Florida with a major
shortwave trough over the Midsouth/Southeastern US. Temperatures
are currently in the upper 80s to low 90s with dew points in the
mid 70s to around 80 degrees. Heat index values are generally
between 98-107F degrees.

Scattered to numerous generally offshore moving showers and
lightning storms are forecast to develop this afternoon as
collisions occur between the sea breezes and outflow from previous
storms. This morning's 15Z XMR sounding shows MLCAPE at 1,091
J/kg, MUCAPE at 3,630 J/kg, a PWAT of 1.98", 0-6km shear at 10kts,
conditionally unstable mid level lapse rates, and a 500mb
temperature of -8C. Thus, a Marginal Risk for severe storms exists
for all of east central Florida. The main hazards are frequent
lightning, damaging wind gusts up to 60mph (5-14% chance), and
heavy rainfall (1-3"+ in 30-60 minutes with a 1 in 10 chance of
rainfall amounts in excess of 3" up to 4-5" with the potential of
minor flooding of roadways and low lying areas. Additionally, a
brief tornado cannot be ruled out (<2 % chance). Additionally,
local analysis shows plenty of instability with CAPE up to 5,000
J/kg, LI up to -9, and no cap. The greatest potential for severe
storms is between until 9PM this evening beginning from
northwestern east central Florida to southeastern east central
Florida into this evening. Rain chances diminish by around
9PM/10PM as storms push offshore of the Treasure Coast. Lows in
the low to upper 70s are forecast.

Tuesday-Wednesday... A similar forecast is expected on Tuesday
with a shortwave trough over the southern US. However, there are
slightly lower precipitation chances between 40-60%. Scattered to
numerous generally offshore moving showers and lightning storms
are forecast to develop into the afternoon and evening as
collisions occur between sea breezes and outflow from previous
storms. Guidance indicates MLCAPE between 1,500-3,200 J/kg, 0-6km
shear up to 20-30kts enhanced along the local sea breeze, and
conditionally unstable mid level lapse rates, and 3KM EHI up to
1-3.5 along the coast. There is the potential for a couple to a
few strong storms capable of frequent lightning, wind gusts up to
40-55mph (< 5% chance of a storm capable of damaging wind gusts up
to 60mph), and heavy rainfall (1-2"+ with a < 5% chance of
rainfall amounts in excess of 2" up to 3-4.").

Drier weather is forecast on Wednesday as another Saharan dust
layer begins to arrive across east central Florida. Isolated to
scattered generally offshore moving showers and lightning storms
are forecast to develop into the afternoon and evening hours as
collisions occur between the sea breezes and outflow from previous
storms. The greatest chance for showers and lightning storms is
across Volusia and northern Brevard counties with offshore moving
showers and lightning storms. The potential exists for a strong
storm or two capable of frequent lightning, wind gusts up to
40-50mph, and heavy rainfall. Afternoon highs in the low to mid
90s are forecast with heat index values between 100-107F degrees.
Lows in the low to upper 70s are forecast.

Thursday-Sunday (modified previous discussion)... The surface
high will remain near to south of the area into late week and
next weekend with moisture gradually increasing once again and the
SAL diminishing. This will lead to a return of more normal
coverage of showers and storms each afternoon and evening, with
PoPs around 20-40%. Above normal heat will linger with highs in
the mid 90s for much of the area and heat index values nearing or
just below Heat Advisory thresholds. A Major HeatRisk with areas
of Extreme HeatRisk Friday and through the weekend. This level of
heat affects anyone without adequate cooling and hydration.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Currently-Friday (modified previous discussion)... The high
pressure over the western Atlantic will generally remain near to
south of the waters through the work week, with offshore winds out
of the W/SW during the overnight and morning hours, switching the
the S/SE in the afternoon as the east coast sea breeze forms.
Wind speeds will largely remain below 15 knots with seas 1-3
feet. Main hazard to boaters will be strong to marginally severe
offshore moving storms today and tomorrow during the
afternoon/evening. Scattered showers and storms pushing off the
coast are forecast today and Tuesday (rain chances up to 50- 60%),
with coverage of this activity decreasing through midweek. Any
storms that push offshore will be capable of producing strong wind
gusts near or in excess of 34 knots and frequent lightning
strikes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

VFR conditions outside of convection through the TAF period.
Scattered showers and storms are ongoing across the western side
of FL this afternoon, slowly moving eastward towards ECFL.
Additional showers and storms will move eastward across the state
from the west coast this afternoon along the west coast sea
breeze. Have maintained VCTS at all inland terminals as well as at
DAB and TIX at 18Z, and having VCTS starting at MLB-SUA at 19/20Z.
No changes to the timing of the TEMPOs as of now, but will
monitor to see if adjustments are needed. SW-SSW winds around 5 KT
will shift E-SE behind the east coast sea breeze this afternoon
and increase to around 10 KT. Any lingering showers and storms
will dissipate or move out of the local area by 1-3Z this evening
with dry conditions overnight. Winds will become light and
variable overnight before becoming SW-SSW and increasing to around
5 KT once again by mid morning Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  92  74  93 /  10  60  20  50
MCO  75  95  76  96 /  10  60  20  20
MLB  76  93  76  93 /  50  60  30  30
VRB  75  95  75  94 /  60  40  30  20
LEE  77  92  76  94 /  10  60  20  20
SFB  76  94  76  95 /  10  60  20  30
ORL  76  93  76  94 /  10  60  20  20
FPR  75  94  74  94 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Fehling
AVIATION...Watson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
431 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

FLZ041-045-046-141-247-347-447-132115-
Coastal Volusia FL-Northern Brevard Barrier Islands FL-Orange FL-
Seminole FL-Inland Volusia FL-Mainland Northern Brevard FL-
Inland Northern Brevard FL-
431 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SEMINOLE...NORTHWESTERN
BREVARD...CENTRAL ORANGE AND SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTIES THROUGH
515 PM EDT...

At 431 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Edgewater to Conway. Movement was east at 30
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Sanford, Altamonte Springs, Ocoee, and Winter Garden.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Seek safe shelter inside a sturdy building or hard-topped vehicle.
Remember, lightning can strike beyond 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. When thunder roars, go indoors!

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2869 8134 2901 8099 2903 8085 2882 8070
      2847 8105 2847 8148 2856 8164
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 257DEG 25KT 2896 8090 2850 8134

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
451 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0437 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NNW Osceola Astros Co 28.32N 81.34W
07/13/2026                   Osceola            FL   Trained Spotter

            Trained storm spotter reported trees down
            and snapped in half along Simpson Rd near
            Buena Ventura Lakes at 4:37 pm.

&&

MW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
451 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

FLZ041-045-046-141-247-347-447-132115-
Coastal Volusia FL-Northern Brevard Barrier Islands FL-Orange FL-
Seminole FL-Inland Volusia FL-Mainland Northern Brevard FL-
Inland Northern Brevard FL-
451 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN SEMINOLE...NORTHERN
BREVARD...SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE AND SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTIES
THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

At 451 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Apollo Beach to near Titusville to Avalon
Park. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Titusville, Oviedo, Winter Springs, and Winter Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Seek safe shelter inside a sturdy building or hard-topped vehicle.
Remember, lightning can strike beyond 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. When thunder roars, go indoors!

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2840 8056 2841 8059 2841 8063 2845 8128
      2856 8144 2899 8097 2899 8082 2860 8054
      2846 8049
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 272DEG 34KT 2889 8073 2862 8090 2849 8118

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
504 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0408 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 13 NE Daytona Beach Sho 29.29N 80.80W
07/13/2026  M40 MPH          AMZ550             FL   Buoy

            Buoy 41069 measured a peak wind gust of
            40MPH/35KT from the west at 4:08 PM.

&&

MW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
506 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

FLZ053-132130-
Osceola FL-
506 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN OSCEOLA COUNTY THROUGH
530 PM EDT...

At 506 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Poinciana, or near West Lake Toho, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Holopaw, West Lake Toho, Poinciana, Harmony, and Alligator Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2820 8096 2798 8108 2801 8142 2804 8146
      2805 8146 2806 8144 2804 8143 2803 8139
      2802 8138 2804 8136 2807 8137 2807 8135
      2808 8135 2809 8145 2814 8146 2814 8152
      2820 8152 2826 8156
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 280DEG 17KT 2818 8143

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
512 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

FLZ045-053-347-547-647-747-132145-
Southern Brevard Barrier Islands FL-Osceola FL-Orange FL-
Mainland Northern Brevard FL-Inland Southern Brevard FL-
Mainland Southern Brevard FL-
512 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL BREVARD...SOUTHEASTERN
ORANGE AND NORTHEASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

At 512 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Narcoossee, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Melbourne, Saint Cloud, Rockledge, Cocoa, and Cocoa Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2805 8051 2809 8073 2824 8132 2845 8118
      2842 8090 2841 8089 2841 8082 2842 8082
      2839 8056 2819 8056 2809 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 283DEG 20KT 2829 8114

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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