Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
247 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 247 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

- Showers and storms are expected through this evening. Any
  strong to severe storms will be capable of producing large hail
  and damaging winds. We will also monitor for flash flooding.

- Shower and storm chances continue through this weekend as
  additional disturbances move overhead.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

An active weather pattern persists through this evening as an upper
level shortwave embedded within a larger trough over the western US
progresses northeast over our area. Meanwhile, yesterday's frontal
boundary has been relatively stagnant within our southern counties.
This looks to eventually lift northward as a warm front early
Thursday morning. Until then, lift associated with the front and the
shortwave combine with sufficient shear and instability to support
strong to severe storms through this evening. The strongest storms
will pose a large hail, flash flooding, and damaging wind threat,
although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. The area to
monitor for severe storm development remains the Permian Basin, and
the Upper and Lower Trans Pecos regions. Thus far, scattered storm
activity is ongoing within the eastern Permian Basin, with at
least pea to half inch sized hail having been reported at KMAF
around midday. As per short-range model guidance, this current
cluster of storms shall continue an east-northeast track through
this afternoon. Another cluster of storms is beginning to take
shape within our western counties and is expected to sweep
eastward through this evening before exiting our region around
midnight. This being the case, stay weather aware through the
remainder of the day!

Tonight, showers/storms track eastward and temperatures fall into
the 50s to low 60s. Another, weak shortwave impulse swings overhead
Thursday. The dryline is progged to set up just west of the TX/NM
border, near the western reaches of our region, by Thursday
afternoon. Given this set up, additional shower/storm development
will be possible Thursday afternoon. However, coverage looks
generally more isolated compared to today. Rain chances Thursday
afternoon and evening range from 10-40%, with the best odds over
the Permian Basin and the Lower Trans Pecos. Again, any severe
storms that develop will be capable of producing large hail and
damaging winds. The threat for flash flooding also increases
Thursday due to occasionally heavy rainfall over already saturated
soils from previous storms. Rain chances decrease shortly after
midnight Thursday night. Temperatures are forecast to warm into
the upper 70s in the eastern Permian Basin Thursday afternoon, and
80s almost everywhere else. Similar to the previous night, lows
Thursday fall into the 50s and 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Upper level troughing persists over the western CONUS through much
of the weekend, accompanied by shortwave impulses embedded within
the flow. Through the weekend, isolated to scattered shower/storm
activity will be possible each afternoon. Placement will depend on
the collocation of the dryline and upper level disturbances. Early
next week and into the middle of the week, an upper trough drops
into Texas and becomes a mid-level cutoff low, allowing low rain
chances to stay in the forecast each afternoon. Temperatures through
the extended period look to top out in the upper 80s to low 90s
during the afternoons, then cool into the 50s and 60s during the
overnight hours. The hottest conditions are expected near and along
the Rio Grande, as highs reach near to above the triple digit mark
most afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 247 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

A cluster of storms is currently moving east across the eastern
Permian Basin, with another round of storms beginning to take
shape over our westernmost counties. Scattered storms are expected
to continue through this evening, before rain chances taper down
overnight. Some of these may be severe, resulting in strong,
erratic winds and periods of reduced visibility and at least MVFR
ceilings.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               58  78  59  91 /  50  30  20  10
Carlsbad                 58  88  59  93 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                   63  84  63  90 /  50  30  30  20
Fort Stockton            60  85  62  92 /  40  20  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           57  80  58  82 /  30  10   0   0
Hobbs                    54  81  55  91 /  30  20  10   0
Marfa                    50  81  50  84 /  30  30  10   0
Midland Intl Airport     59  80  60  91 /  40  30  10  10
Odessa                   59  81  61  91 /  40  20  10   0
Wink                     59  85  59  92 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...95
LONG TERM....95
AVIATION...95

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1200 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

TXZ051-061-062-201730-
Midland TX-Martin TX-Ector TX-
1200 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL ECTOR...
SOUTHEASTERN ANDREWS...NORTHWESTERN MIDLAND AND SOUTHWESTERN MARTIN
COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 PM CDT...

At 1159 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Midland International Air and Space Port, or near Midland, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Midland, Odessa, Midland International Air and Space Port, Warfield,
and Midland Airpark.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 126 and 138.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3185 10214 3194 10233 3209 10224 3209 10221
      3213 10221 3220 10217 3211 10194
TIME...MOT...LOC 1659Z 208DEG 29KT 3197 10219

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

KLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1209 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

TXZ069-201745-
Upton TX-
1209 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL UPTON COUNTY THROUGH
1245 PM CDT...

At 1208 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles west of Rankin, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Upton
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3111 10206 3121 10228 3157 10222 3143 10178
TIME...MOT...LOC 1708Z 208DEG 29KT 3126 10211

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

KLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1214 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

TXZ068-075-201745-
Pecos TX-Crane TX-
1214 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL PECOS...
SOUTHEASTERN WARD AND NORTHWESTERN CRANE COUNTIES THROUGH 1245 PM
CDT...

At 1214 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles east of Grandfalls, or 18 miles west of Crane, moving northeast
at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Imperial.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3125 10261 3130 10277 3156 10269 3148 10241
TIME...MOT...LOC 1714Z 211DEG 25KT 3135 10266

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

KLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1234 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

TXZ068-075-201800-
Pecos TX-Crane TX-
1234 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL PECOS AND CENTRAL
CRANE COUNTIES THROUGH 100 PM CDT...

At 1234 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles southeast of Grandfalls, or 19 miles southwest of Crane, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Crane, Imperial, Cordona Lake, and Crane County Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3103 10259 3115 10284 3159 10261 3145 10232
      3144 10232
TIME...MOT...LOC 1734Z 210DEG 36KT 3123 10263

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

KLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
126 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

TXZ069-070-201900-
Reagan TX-Upton TX-
126 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN REAGAN AND EAST
CENTRAL UPTON COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM CDT...

At 126 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 17
miles northeast of Rankin, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Stiles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3126 10165 3136 10186 3165 10177 3165 10136
TIME...MOT...LOC 1826Z 221DEG 15KT 3140 10173

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

KLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
211 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

TXZ047-048-052-201945-
Scurry TX-Howard TX-Borden TX-
211 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN SCURRY...
NORTHWESTERN MITCHELL...EASTERN BORDEN AND NORTHEASTERN HOWARD
COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM CDT...

At 211 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Luther, or 15 miles east of Ackerly, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gail, Luther, J B Thomas Reservoir, Vincent, Vealmoor, and Knapp.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3253 10116 3253 10117 3251 10117 3233 10139
      3253 10164 3288 10135 3266 10100
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 217DEG 39KT 3252 10145

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

KLG