Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
640 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 638 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

- Showers and storms are expected today beginning early this
  afternoon and continuing into this evening. Any strong to severe
  storms will be capable of producing large hail and damaging
  winds. We will also monitor for flash flooding.

- Shower and storm chances continue through this weekend as
  additional disturbances move overhead.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 156 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

The cold front that moved through the area on Tuesday has washed out
across the southern half of the region and will be one of the
catalysts for convection during the day today. In addition to the
front, plenty of moisture and instability will be available to help
some storms become strong to severe. Forecast soundings continue to
show plenty of shear, 1000-2000J/kg of MUCAPE, and steep lapse rates
favorable for large hail and damaging winds in the most organized
storms. Hi-res ensembles show activity getting an early start on the
day around or just afternoon with convection developing near the
Davis Mountains/Pecos River Valley and moving east into the Permian
Basin and Stockton Plateau. Coverage increases during the afternoon
and some upscale growth into multicellular clusters or lines of
storms may occur before exiting the region tonight after sunset.
Daytime highs to the north of the stalled front will struggle to
reach out of the 70s as low clouds keep temperatures from moving
much. To the south and west of the front, mainly west of the Pecos
River, highs will reach into the 80s with 90s along the Rio
Grande.

Tonight sees a lull in convection as the daytime activity decays or
moves off to the east. The dryline establishes itself west of
Midland/Odessa near or just west of the TX/NM border. The dryline's
position and any leftover boundaries from today will impact where
any convection develops on Thursday. Coverage overall will be lower
as the upper level support available for storms today will be weaker
for Thursday. Similar to today though, large hail and damaging winds
will be the primary hazards with any severe storms that develop.
Localized flash flooding will also be possible, particularly from
Reagan County southward into eastern Pecos and portions of
Terrell County that saw significant rainfall on Tuesday. Highs on
Thursday remain below normal, but increase into the 80s for most.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 156 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Thursday night sees activity once again decay and move off to the
east of our area. Friday and through the weekend, a similar pattern
continues where daytime convection will be dependent on where the
dryline sets up in the CWA and the timing of any upper level
disturbances that move in from the west. Medium to long range
guidance shows this occurring roughly each day Friday through Sunday
with a decrease in activity for Monday. Temperatures through the
weekend will hover near or just below normal in the 80s to low 90s.
Unsurprisingly, Rio Grande Village and the surrounding low Desert of
Big Bend may still reach the century mark on those days, but
temperatures will be otherwise unremarkable for late May. Given the
isolated to scattered nature of each day's showers and storms, rain
amounts will be tough to pin down. Rain chances continue evening
into the middle of next week, but that portion of the forecast
remains subject to change.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Near MVFR CIGs have moved into the region at most terminals and
will be a fixture for the morning before lifting or dissipating.
TS/TSRA are possible this afternoon, but confidence remains low to
include mention at all sites with this issuance. Easterly flow
shifts southeasterly during the day with sustained winds between
10-15kts. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible with any nearby
convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               74  59  81  61 /  60  50  30  10
Carlsbad                 82  59  90  60 /  30  30  10  10
Dryden                   84  64  86  65 /  50  50  10  20
Fort Stockton            83  61  88  63 /  50  50  20  10
Guadalupe Pass           79  59  81  59 /  20  10   0   0
Hobbs                    73  55  84  56 /  60  20  20  10
Marfa                    85  52  82  50 /  40  20  20  20
Midland Intl Airport     75  60  83  62 /  70  30  10  10
Odessa                   75  60  84  63 /  70  30  10  10
Wink                     80  60  88  61 /  50  30  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...93

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1130 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

TXZ061-068-201700-
Crane TX-Ector TX-
1130 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ECTOR AND
NORTHWESTERN CRANE COUNTIES THROUGH NOON CDT...

At 1129 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles south of West Odessa, or 18 miles east of Monahans, moving
north at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Odessa, West Odessa, and Penwell.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 96 and 118.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3150 10250 3157 10272 3196 10258 3181 10229
TIME...MOT...LOC 1629Z 200DEG 29KT 3161 10257

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

KLG