Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
640 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 638 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

- Showers and storms are expected today beginning early this
  afternoon and continuing into this evening. Any strong to severe
  storms will be capable of producing large hail and damaging
  winds. We will also monitor for flash flooding.

- Shower and storm chances continue through this weekend as
  additional disturbances move overhead.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 156 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

The cold front that moved through the area on Tuesday has washed out
across the southern half of the region and will be one of the
catalysts for convection during the day today. In addition to the
front, plenty of moisture and instability will be available to help
some storms become strong to severe. Forecast soundings continue to
show plenty of shear, 1000-2000J/kg of MUCAPE, and steep lapse rates
favorable for large hail and damaging winds in the most organized
storms. Hi-res ensembles show activity getting an early start on the
day around or just afternoon with convection developing near the
Davis Mountains/Pecos River Valley and moving east into the Permian
Basin and Stockton Plateau. Coverage increases during the afternoon
and some upscale growth into multicellular clusters or lines of
storms may occur before exiting the region tonight after sunset.
Daytime highs to the north of the stalled front will struggle to
reach out of the 70s as low clouds keep temperatures from moving
much. To the south and west of the front, mainly west of the Pecos
River, highs will reach into the 80s with 90s along the Rio
Grande.

Tonight sees a lull in convection as the daytime activity decays or
moves off to the east. The dryline establishes itself west of
Midland/Odessa near or just west of the TX/NM border. The dryline's
position and any leftover boundaries from today will impact where
any convection develops on Thursday. Coverage overall will be lower
as the upper level support available for storms today will be weaker
for Thursday. Similar to today though, large hail and damaging winds
will be the primary hazards with any severe storms that develop.
Localized flash flooding will also be possible, particularly from
Reagan County southward into eastern Pecos and portions of
Terrell County that saw significant rainfall on Tuesday. Highs on
Thursday remain below normal, but increase into the 80s for most.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 156 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Thursday night sees activity once again decay and move off to the
east of our area. Friday and through the weekend, a similar pattern
continues where daytime convection will be dependent on where the
dryline sets up in the CWA and the timing of any upper level
disturbances that move in from the west. Medium to long range
guidance shows this occurring roughly each day Friday through Sunday
with a decrease in activity for Monday. Temperatures through the
weekend will hover near or just below normal in the 80s to low 90s.
Unsurprisingly, Rio Grande Village and the surrounding low Desert of
Big Bend may still reach the century mark on those days, but
temperatures will be otherwise unremarkable for late May. Given the
isolated to scattered nature of each day's showers and storms, rain
amounts will be tough to pin down. Rain chances continue evening
into the middle of next week, but that portion of the forecast
remains subject to change.

-Stickney

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Near MVFR CIGs have moved into the region at most terminals and
will be a fixture for the morning before lifting or dissipating.
TS/TSRA are possible this afternoon, but confidence remains low to
include mention at all sites with this issuance. Easterly flow
shifts southeasterly during the day with sustained winds between
10-15kts. Gusty and erratic winds will be possible with any nearby
convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               74  59  81  61 /  60  50  30  10
Carlsbad                 82  59  90  60 /  30  30  10  10
Dryden                   84  64  86  65 /  50  50  10  20
Fort Stockton            83  61  88  63 /  50  50  20  10
Guadalupe Pass           79  59  81  59 /  20  10   0   0
Hobbs                    73  55  84  56 /  60  20  20  10
Marfa                    85  52  82  50 /  40  20  20  20
Midland Intl Airport     75  60  83  62 /  70  30  10  10
Odessa                   75  60  84  63 /  70  30  10  10
Wink                     80  60  88  61 /  50  30  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...93

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1200 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

TXZ051-061-062-201730-
Midland TX-Martin TX-Ector TX-
1200 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL ECTOR...
SOUTHEASTERN ANDREWS...NORTHWESTERN MIDLAND AND SOUTHWESTERN MARTIN
COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 PM CDT...

At 1159 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Midland International Air and Space Port, or near Midland, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Midland, Odessa, Midland International Air and Space Port, Warfield,
and Midland Airpark.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 126 and 138.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3185 10214 3194 10233 3209 10224 3209 10221
      3213 10221 3220 10217 3211 10194
TIME...MOT...LOC 1659Z 208DEG 29KT 3197 10219

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

KLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1209 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

TXZ069-201745-
Upton TX-
1209 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL UPTON COUNTY THROUGH
1245 PM CDT...

At 1208 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles west of Rankin, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Upton
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3111 10206 3121 10228 3157 10222 3143 10178
TIME...MOT...LOC 1708Z 208DEG 29KT 3126 10211

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

KLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1214 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

TXZ068-075-201745-
Pecos TX-Crane TX-
1214 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL PECOS...
SOUTHEASTERN WARD AND NORTHWESTERN CRANE COUNTIES THROUGH 1245 PM
CDT...

At 1214 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles east of Grandfalls, or 18 miles west of Crane, moving northeast
at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Imperial.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3125 10261 3130 10277 3156 10269 3148 10241
TIME...MOT...LOC 1714Z 211DEG 25KT 3135 10266

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

KLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1234 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

TXZ068-075-201800-
Pecos TX-Crane TX-
1234 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL PECOS AND CENTRAL
CRANE COUNTIES THROUGH 100 PM CDT...

At 1234 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles southeast of Grandfalls, or 19 miles southwest of Crane, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Crane, Imperial, Cordona Lake, and Crane County Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3103 10259 3115 10284 3159 10261 3145 10232
      3144 10232
TIME...MOT...LOC 1734Z 210DEG 36KT 3123 10263

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

KLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
126 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

TXZ069-070-201900-
Reagan TX-Upton TX-
126 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN REAGAN AND EAST
CENTRAL UPTON COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM CDT...

At 126 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 17
miles northeast of Rankin, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Stiles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3126 10165 3136 10186 3165 10177 3165 10136
TIME...MOT...LOC 1826Z 221DEG 15KT 3140 10173

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

KLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
211 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

TXZ047-048-052-201945-
Scurry TX-Howard TX-Borden TX-
211 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN SCURRY...
NORTHWESTERN MITCHELL...EASTERN BORDEN AND NORTHEASTERN HOWARD
COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM CDT...

At 211 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Luther, or 15 miles east of Ackerly, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gail, Luther, J B Thomas Reservoir, Vincent, Vealmoor, and Knapp.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3253 10116 3253 10117 3251 10117 3233 10139
      3253 10164 3288 10135 3266 10100
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 217DEG 39KT 3252 10145

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

KLG