Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
108 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 102 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

- A few severe storms will be possible across portions of
  southeast New Mexico and across the Lower Trans Pecos. Large
  hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two may be seen with the
  most organized storms.

- Drier and warmer conditions take shape by the middle to latter
  half of the work week before storm chances increase by the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

A line of storms stretching from the northern Permian Basin south
into Terrell County continues to slowly move to the east bringing 1-
2" of rain with locally higher amounts to many locations. As this
activity clears out, daytime heating over southeast New Mexico, the
Davis Mountains, and areas generally south of I-10 may see new
isolated storms develop. A few may become strong to severe with
large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two being the main
threats out of the most organized storms. Afternoon activity will
dissipate or move out of the area by after sunset this evening.
Temperatures settle below normal into the 50s and 60s tonight. With
the aforementioned upper level disturbance moving off to the
northeast, temperatures warm up into the 80s for most with 90s down
along the Rio Grande. Isolated storms once again develop over the
Davis Mountains and into southeast New Mexico. However, less upper
level support will limit just how intense and how long lasting most
of this activity will be. Bouts of heavy rain, lightning, small
hail, and gusty winds will accompany some of this convection.
Wednesday night temperatures fall just below normal in the 50s and
60s.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 102 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Upper-level ridging continues to build into the region on Thursday,
yielding afternoon highs in the 80s for most (90s near/along the Rio
Grande). By Friday, shortwave impulses embedded in southwest flow
aloft coupled with increased moisture and dryline forcing brings low
to medium (generally 20-50%) chances of isolated to scattered
showers/storms across much of the area. Guidance shows a similar
pattern going into the weekend and early next week, keeping chances
(10-40%) of rain in the forecast. It is important to note that there
is uncertainty in timing, amounts, and severity of activity at the
moment. Naturally, we will continue to monitor trends over the next
several days and adjust the forecast accordingly. Otherwise,
afternoon highs in the 80s to low 90s can continue to be expected.

Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

MVFR to IFR conditions continue from MAF eastward as convection
continues into the early part of the afternoon. VFR conditions
expected during the afternoon as activity clears from west to east.
IsoT/SHRA chances remain for PEQ/FST this afternoon, but low
confidence in timing and impact exist, so will preclude from this
issuance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               60  84  63  87 /  20  10  10   0
Carlsbad                 58  86  60  90 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                   65  88  67  91 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            60  87  63  91 /  10  20   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           57  80  61  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    55  84  58  87 /  20  10   0   0
Marfa                    50  84  52  89 /   0  30   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     61  83  63  86 /  10  10  10   0
Odessa                   61  83  63  86 /  10  10  10   0
Wink                     59  85  62  89 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...93

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
111 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

TXZ082-261830-
Terrell TX-
111 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN TERRELL COUNTY THROUGH
130 PM CDT...

At 111 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 14 miles east of Terrell County Gas Plant to 10
miles west of Pandale to 10 miles west of Pumpville. Movement was
southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Terrell County Gas Plant.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3047 10169 3047 10173 3044 10172 3042 10174
      3034 10166 3034 10172 3029 10176 2978 10176
      2978 10181 2981 10181 2979 10182 2981 10185
      2978 10193 2982 10197 2979 10205 2981 10213
      3065 10171 3065 10170 3062 10165 3055 10165
TIME...MOT...LOC 1811Z 301DEG 11KT 3042 10161 3016 10173 2998 10191

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

21

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
351 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1146 AM     Flood            2 W Big Spring          32.26N 101.50W
05/26/2026                   Howard             TX   Public

            Report from mPING: Cropland/Yard Flooding.

1203 PM     Flood            4 W Luther              32.43N 101.53W
05/26/2026                   Howard             TX   Public

            Report from mPING: Cropland/Yard Flooding.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
327 PM MDT Tue May 26 2026

NMZ027-028-262215-
Eddy County Plains NM-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County NM-
327 PM MDT Tue May 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL EDDY COUNTY THROUGH
415 PM MDT...

At 327 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles north of Lincoln National Forest, or 22 miles south of Hope,
moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lincoln National Forest.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3252 10485 3252 10484 3261 10484 3243 10443
      3218 10466 3235 10485
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 312DEG 17KT 3249 10482

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
511 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

TXZ272-273-278-262300-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor TX-Eastern Culberson County TX-
Davis Mountains Foothills TX-
511 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL CULBERSON COUNTY
THROUGH 600 PM CDT...

At 511 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles north of Van Horn, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central
Culberson County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3112 10487 3130 10489 3139 10446 3112 10442
TIME...MOT...LOC 2211Z 262DEG 16KT 3122 10478

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

13