Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1213 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1211 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

- An approaching upper level system will bring increasing coverage
  of showers and thunderstorms this evening through Tuesday.

- A few storms will be capable of becoming strong to severe with
  damaging winds over our western areas late this afternoon and
  evening. A few severe storms will be possible from far southeast
  New Mexico into the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos region
  on Tuesday with large hail and damaging winds the primary
  hazards. Heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding
  tonight into Tuesday.

- Drier and warmer conditions take shape by the middle to latter
  half of the work week before storm chances increase by the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Early afternoon water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough
continuing to deepen over the Desert Southwest while an upper-level
low was located over the vicinity of east and southeast Texas. A
remnant MCV was also moving across portions of west-central Texas to
the south of Abilene early this afternoon, with scattered storms
developing along this feature near San Angelo to our east. A warm
and relatively moist easterly to southeasterly surface flow is in
place over west Texas and southeast New Mexico with surface
dewpoints ranging from the mid 40s to near 50 degrees over our
western zones and in the mid 50s to mid 60s over the Permian Basin
and Lower Trans Pecos. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
beginning to to develop over the higher terrain of the Guadalupe and
Davis Mountains in the upslope flow regime as of 130 PM CDT.
Isolated to scattered convection will generally remain confined to
areas west of the Pecos River and into portions of the southeast New
Mexico plains this afternoon. Convective coverage should increase
over western portions of our forecast area late this afternoon into
this evening along and ahead of a shortwave impulse lifting into
southwest Texas and southeast New Mexico ahead of the upper-level
trough over the vicinity of Arizona and the Four Corners. Will
maintain scattered to numerous (40-80%) coverage of showers/storms
over locations especially along and west of a Tatum-Pecos-Alpine/
Marathon-Big Bend NP line this evening, while generally dry
conditions  persist over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos.
Can't entirely rule out an isolated storm over the far eastern Basin
this evening on the western fringe of the MCV to our east, but
confidence remained low enough to keep mention out of the forecast
for now. Steep mid-level lapse rates, plentiful DCAPE in excess of
1000 J/KG, and modest surface-based instability will support a
marginal severe threat with storms over western portions of our
forecast area this evening with potential for strong gusts in excess
of 50-60 mph with the strongest storms that develop. Precipitable
water values also increase above 1" over our western areas this
evening, so there will also be potential for locally heavy rainfall
that could lead to spotty flooding/flash flooding of low-lying areas.

An increasingly diffluent flow pattern will spread across the rest
of west Texas and southeast New Mexico early Tuesday morning and
into the day Tuesday. Deep-layer moisture and ascent will bring
scattered to numerous coverage of showers and thunderstorms into the
Permian Basin and the Trans Pecos region by early Tuesday morning
with a good chance of showers/thunderstorms continuing through
Tuesday afternoon. Precipitable water values between 1-1.4 inches
will support a heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding threat
through the day Tuesday, especially where repeated rounds of storms
develop. Confidence in larger scale flash flooding was low enough to
preclude a Flood Watch issuance with this package, but will continue
to monitor given CAM trends of showing pockets of rainfall amounts
of 1-2" (perhaps very locally higher) over portions of far southeast
New Mexico and the Permian Basin through Tuesday afternoon.
Probabilities of >1" of rain have increased to about 40-50% east of
a Tatum-Midland/Odessa-Big Lake line. In addition to the heavy
rainfall/localized flooding potential, we will also be monitoring
for severe storms from the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos on
Tuesday. Forecast soundings and CAMs indicate a zone of moderate
instability with MUCAPE values up to 1500-2500 J/KG developing over
this portion of our CWA late Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon.
This instability along with 0-6 km shear up to around 40 knots will
support storm organization and associated large hail and damaging
wind threat over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos region
Tuesday. A low level jet will strengthen over the Permian Basin and
Lower Trans Pecos by early Tuesday evening, which could support a
low-end tornado threat with supercells that might continue into the
evening hours. Storm chances should gradually decrease from west to
east Tuesday evening/night as the shortwave trough lifts over the
region. Highs Tuesday afternoon should trend below normal with the
increased cloud cover and rain chances. Temperatures should range
from the 70s to lower 80s over most of the region, except along the
Big Bend/Rio Grande where temperatures will be in the 90s and
perhaps over 100 degrees in spots.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Warmer and drier conditions return on Wednesday as weak upper-level
ridging moves over southeast New Mexico and far west Texas. However,
shortwave impulses embedded in the flow aloft provides isolated (10-
30%) storm chances across portions of the Davis
Mountains/surrounding areas and the far eastern Permian Basin.
Otherwise, expect afternoon highs to top out into the 80s for most,
with 90s farther south along the Rio Grande. The aforementioned
upper-level ridge builds over the region on Thursday and Friday,
yielding warmer temperatures and highs in the 90s become
commonplace. Though guidance is indicating that a dryline will set
up somewhere along the New Mexico/Texas border and extend south into
the Big Bend on Friday. This coupled with increased moisture and
instability ahead of the dryline yield low (10-30%) chances of
showers and storms across southeast New Mexico, Trans Pecos/Stockton
Plateau, and western portions of the Permian Basin. By the weekend,
long-range ensemble guidance shows southeast New Mexico and west
Texas under southwest flow aloft while the surface dryline remains
positioned in our forecast area. This means that additional chances
(generally 20-50%) of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible this weekend.

Greening

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

MVFR conditions or lower in regions of showers/storms through
11Z-14Z Tuesday morning at terminals, followed by another round
of showers/storms 15Z-22Z for terminals on the Permian Basin and
Stockton Plateau. Main impacts of stronger storms at terminals
will be heavy rain capable of causing flash flooding, lightning,
damaging winds, and hail. In between regions of storms, VFR
conditions with scattered to broken clouds can be expected.
Showers/storms clear most terminals by 03Z-06Z Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               78  60  83  62 /  80  40  10  10
Carlsbad                 79  57  87  60 /  60  10   0   0
Dryden                   88  65  88  66 /  60  20   0  10
Fort Stockton            82  60  87  63 /  60  20  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           74  56  80  60 /  50  10   0   0
Hobbs                    74  55  84  57 /  70  20  10   0
Marfa                    81  50  85  52 /  40  10  20   0
Midland Intl Airport     77  60  83  62 /  80  20   0   0
Odessa                   77  60  83  63 /  80  20   0   0
Wink                     79  59  86  62 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...94

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
841 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

TXZ275>277-260230-
Chinati Mountains TX-Marfa Plateau TX-Davis Mountains TX-
841 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS AND
NORTHEASTERN PRESIDIO COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM CDT...

At 840 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles east of Candelaria, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Marfa and Marfa Municipal Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3007 10442 3029 10459 3055 10428 3035 10393
TIME...MOT...LOC 0140Z 232DEG 23KT 3023 10442

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
956 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

TXZ276-279-281-282-260345-
Central Brewster County TX-Presidio Valley TX-
Lower Brewster County TX-Marfa Plateau TX-
956 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN BREWSTER AND
SOUTHEASTERN PRESIDIO COUNTIES THROUGH 1045 PM CDT...

At 956 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles north of Lajitas, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Study Butte and Terlingua.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2929 10388 2947 10390 2964 10351 2931 10344
TIME...MOT...LOC 0256Z 256DEG 15KT 2940 10380

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

13