Flash Flood Warning 39, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

604 
WGUS74 KMAF 261323
FFSMAF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
823 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

TXC243-377-261430-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0039.000000T0000Z-260526T1430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jeff Davis TX-Presidio TX-
823 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 AM CDT THIS
MORNING FOR SOUTHERN JEFF DAVIS AND NORTHEASTERN PRESIDIO COUNTIES...

At 823 AM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between
0.5 and 1 inch of rain has fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or
expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Marfa, Marfa Municipal Airport, Bloys Camp and Paisano Pass.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3048 10423 3056 10419 3054 10380 2995 10380
      3002 10444

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED

$$

KLG

840 
WGUS74 KMAF 261434 RRA
FFSMAF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
934 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

TXC243-377-261444-
/O.EXP.KMAF.FF.W.0039.000000T0000Z-260526T1430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jeff Davis TX-Presidio TX-
934 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR SOUTHERN JEFF DAVIS AND
NORTHEASTERN PRESIDIO COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3048 10423 3056 10419 3054 10380 2995 10380
      3002 10444

$$

44

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
608 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 606 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

- An approaching upper level system will bring increasing coverage
  of showers and thunderstorms through this evening.

- A few severe storms will be possible from far southeast New
  Mexico into the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos region today
  with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards. Heavy
  rainfall may result in localized flash flooding early this
  morning into the evening today.

- Drier and warmer conditions take shape by the middle to latter
  half of the work week before storm chances increase by the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Current radar and satellite imagery shows a line of thunderstorms
moving slowly eastward across western portions of Lea County, while
scattered showers and storms extending down from the Upper Trans
Pecos to Davis Mountains. This is due to upper-level troughing over
the western half of the forecast area. Meanwhile, multiple outflow
boundaries across west Texas and far southeast New Mexico have
helped in the additional development of showers and storms in the
areas previously mentioned. Observations are also showing a
Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) positioned over southern New
Mexico which will keep most showers and storms across far west Texas
and southeast New Mexico overnight tonight. Satellite and radar
imagery also shows an increase in coverage of showers and storms
near Van Horn, thanks to the aforementioned shortwave trough moving
over these areas. A few of these storms may become strong to severe
capable of producing hail up to the size of half dollar coins and
damaging winds up to 60 mph. Storms should eventually progress into
the Permian Basin by the early morning hours, though coverage looks
to remain scattered. By late morning, the wave across far west Texas
and southeast New Mexico propagates eastward impacting locations in
the Lower Trans Pecos and Permian Basin. The severe weather threat
across the Permian Basin to Lower Trans Pecos will depend on the
timing and extent of the morning convection. Latest CAMs indicate
more coverage of morning convection across the Permian Basin
compared with the Lower Trans Pecos. Therefore, more favorable
instability will be prevalent over portions of the Lower Trans Pecos
and eastern/northeastern Permian Basin. Forecast soundings signal a
damaging wind and heavy rainfall threat thanks to marginally
unstable surface/mixed layer CAPE, sufficient deep-layer shear, high
DCAPE (1000-1300 J/kg), and high Precipitable Water values (PWATs).
Storms look to quickly become linear by the early afternoon hours
which will bring more of a damaging wind and heavy rainfall threat.
Cannot rule out a couple of isolated cells that form ahead of the
line, therefore, large hail along with damaging winds will be the
main hazards with these storms. Localized flash flooding is going to
be evident due to heavy rainfall from repeating storms. Heaviest
rainfall amounts are still uncertain, though convective bands will
be capable of producing 1-2" for some locations. Overall, areas
extending from far southeast New Mexico to the central/eastern
Permian Basin to Lower Trans Pecos will have a 50-60% chance of an
inch or greater rainfall accumulation.

By the evening, the main line of storms will begin to exit our
region. A few lingering showers and storms are expected into the
overnight hours across the eastern half of the area due to shortwave
impulses from the flow aloft. Much drier conditions are expected on
Wednesday as the main system passes to the east. Isolated showers
and storms are going to be prevalent over the northern Permian Basin
and parts of the Lower Trans Pecos. These storms should remain below
severe limits, though gusty winds may occur out of the strongest
storm.

Lamberson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF): Much drier and warmer conditions on
Thursday before rain/storm chances increase by Friday lasting
through the weekend. We will be monitoring for the potential of more
severe storms during this timeframe. See the discussion below for
more details.

Thursday and Friday, an upper-level ridge strengthens over the
region. This will supply warmer high temperatures in the mid 80s to
mid 90s for most. Weak shortwave impulses embedded within the ridge
axis may translate over our area and bring a low chance (10-30%) of
showers and thunderstorms across far southeast New Mexico, Permian
Basin, and the Lower Trans Pecos Friday afternoon through the
evening. At the surface, guidance indicates the dryline will set up
near the TX/NM border. More available surface moisture and
instability will create a favorable pattern for the potential of a
few strong to severe storms. By the weekend, cluster analysis shows
southwesterly flow aloft taking shape once again as an upper-level
trough approaches from the west. This pattern looks to bring more
isolated to scattered showers/storms along with slightly cooler
temperatures in the 80s to low 90s Saturday through Monday across
the region.

Lamberson

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

MVFR conditions or lower in showers/storms for terminals on the
Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau until 15Z-18Z today. Main
impacts of showers/storms at terminals will be lightning, heavy
rainfall, hail, and damaging winds. There is a 20% to 30% chance
of another round of showers/storms for terminals on the SE NM
plains into northern Permian Basin 20Z-00Z this evening, with more
uncertainty in shower/storm coverage over the rest of the Permian
Basin and Stockton Plateau. In between regions of storms, VFR
conditions with scattered to broken cloud cover can be expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               75  60  84  63 /  70  20  10  10
Carlsbad                 78  58  86  60 /  50  10   0   0
Dryden                   86  65  88  67 /  50  20  10   0
Fort Stockton            81  60  87  63 /  60  10  20   0
Guadalupe Pass           74  57  80  61 /  60   0   0   0
Hobbs                    73  55  84  58 /  50  20  10   0
Marfa                    80  50  84  52 /  30   0  30   0
Midland Intl Airport     74  61  83  63 /  70  10  10  10
Odessa                   74  61  83  63 /  70  10  10  10
Wink                     77  59  85  62 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...94

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1245 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 AM     Hail             Lovington               32.95N 103.35W
05/26/2026  M1.25 Inch       Lea                NM   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Half Dollar Size Hail reported approximately
            3 blocks away from the Fire Department.

&&

94