Tornado Warning 38, NWS Louisville, KY

391 
WWUS53 KLMK 212054
SVSLMK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
354 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

KYC027-093-212103-
/O.CAN.KLMK.TO.W.0038.000000T0000Z-260721T2130Z/
Breckinridge KY-Hardin KY-
354 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL BRECKINRIDGE AND WEST
CENTRAL HARDIN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
central Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3758 8642 3757 8642 3757 8639 3756 8638
      3757 8636 3756 8635 3759 8635 3758 8631
      3760 8628 3759 8627 3760 8624 3758 8623
      3758 8621 3756 8618 3757 8617 3756 8615
      3733 8631 3733 8636 3753 8655
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 308DEG 26KT 3749 8637 

$$

KYC085-212130-
/O.CON.KLMK.TO.W.0038.000000T0000Z-260721T2130Z/
Grayson KY-
354 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
GRAYSON COUNTY...

At 353 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Leitchfield, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Leitchfield around 400 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Post,
Saint Paul, Concord, West Clifty, Sadler, Grayson Springs, Black
Rock, Clarkson, Tar Hill, and Duff.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3758 8642 3757 8642 3757 8639 3756 8638
      3757 8636 3756 8635 3759 8635 3758 8631
      3760 8628 3759 8627 3760 8624 3758 8623
      3758 8621 3756 8618 3757 8617 3756 8615
      3733 8631 3733 8636 3753 8655
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 308DEG 26KT 3749 8637 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

Padgett

458 
WWUS53 KLMK 212107
SVSLMK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
407 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

KYC085-212116-
/O.CAN.KLMK.TO.W.0038.000000T0000Z-260721T2130Z/
Grayson KY-
407 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR CENTRAL GRAYSON COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

The tornado threat has diminished and the Tornado Warning has been
cancelled. However, large hail and damaging winds remain likely and a
Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for the area.  However,
small hail, gusty winds and heavy rain are still possible with this
thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
central Kentucky.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
Grayson County. 

&&

LAT...LON 3758 8642 3757 8642 3757 8639 3756 8638
      3757 8636 3756 8635 3759 8635 3758 8631
      3760 8628 3759 8627 3760 8624 3758 8623
      3758 8621 3756 8618 3757 8617 3756 8615
      3733 8631 3733 8636 3753 8655
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 307DEG 20KT 3745 8630 

$$

Padgett

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
341 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Severe thunderstorms are likely from midday through this evening,
  with all severe hazards possible. Damaging straight-line winds are
  the main hazard, but a few tornadoes and large hail will be
  possible. Localized heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding,
  especially east of I-65.

* Calm weather moves in with cooler than average highs for Wednesday
  through Friday this week.

* Rain chances return late week into the weekend with maximum
  temperatures returning to the 90s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 341 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Semi-discrete supercells have now congealed into a squall line
moving through south-central Indiana and into central Kentucky.
Forecast updates reflect the timing of the system, which is
closely mimicking the HRRR forecast. SPC mesoanalysis ahead of
the squall line has very high CAPE (instability) amounts (SBCAPE
upwards of 4000 J/KG, MLCAPE around 3000 J/KG), effective bulk
shear between 40-50 KTS, PWs of greater than 2 (approaching
climatological maximum for July), DCAPEs greater than 600 J/KG, and
registering elevated numbers on several supercell/tornado
parameters (supercell composite, effective layer STP, effective
layer SRHs). Storms will continue to race toward the
south/southeast direction into a ripe environment for storms to
continue and/or strengthen for the next 4-6 hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

*** Today and Tonight ***

An upper level trough is beginning to drop south into the northern
part of the Ohio Valley. An associated low pressure system over
Ontario is draping a cold front SW through northern IL into the
Central Plains. This front is expected to push through the forecast
area today and tonight. Ahead of the line, PWATS are between 1.5" to
2" across the region (on the order of 75th to 99th percentile for
late July). As storms start to move in this afternoon, PWATS could
reach 2.5" (approaching climatological maximum for late July).
Southern IN counties can expected for storms to start moving in
early afternoon, with a some more discrete storms initially. As the
afternoon progresses, a broken line of storms will beginning to
develop over southern IN and move SW through KY.

All severe threats remain possible for this afternoon and evening.
Gusty winds up to 70 MPH are expected with storms, along with a 1"-
2" hail threat. Isolated large hail is not out of the question, but
has the greatest chance with discrete cellular storms rather than
with the linear convection. A few isolated tornadoes are possible
mainly east of I-65, but not off the table for the remaining of the
forecast area. SBCAPE values are ranging from 2,000 - 4,000 J/kg
across the area providing ample instability for the environment.
Deep layer shear values of 30 - 40 kts are also expected to move in
ahead of this line, adding to the threat of tornadoes. However, LCL
heights are expected to remain marginal which would decrease that
threat slightly. There is also a concern for flash flooding with the
favorable PWAT environment. Storms will produce heavy rainfall
leading to isolated flash flooding, along with any training storms
through the evening hours. A flood watch has been issued for KY
counties mainly east of I-65 that will run through late tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

*** Tomorrow - Monday Night ***

Behind the cold front, a surface high pressure will build into the
Ohio Valley starting tomorrow. The upper level ridge that is
currently in place over the southern Plains will continue to
persist, leaving the Ohio Valley region in a northwesterly flow
aloft. Tomorrow some gusty winds are possible through the day as a
mid-level jet moves through. Maximum temperatures tomorrow are
expected to be in the mid to low 80s tomorrow with the CAA behind
the front. Temperatures will bounce back to the mid to upper 80s by
Saturday.

The next chance for precip will be Friday as a shortwave
trough moves east from the Central Plains. As we move into the late
weekend early week, a couple frontal boundaries will move through
the region. This will likely bring another round of rain showers for
Sunday into Monday. Temperatures to start the week will be in the
upper 80s and low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Convective activity over south central Indiana has initiated and
is starting to move southeastward into the region. General
arrival times are between 18Z and 19Z for south central Indiana
terminals, 19Z and 20Z for Louisville area terminals, and
pushing into central Kentucky (including Lexington, Bardstown,
Elizabethtown areas) for 20Z to 21Z. Sites should expect a few
hours (at least) of strong gusty winds and reduced visibilities
from heavy downpours this evening. Hail is also a concern in
these storms. Once storms pass, general wind direction will be
out of the NW with some chances for patchy MVFR fog later
tonight into tomorrow morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KYZ023-024-026-
     027-061>063-070>076-081.
     Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ033.
     Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Wednesday for KYZ034>043-
     045>049-053>057-063>067-073>078-081-082.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     INZ083-089.

&&

UPDATE...MK
SHORT TERM...CAL
LONG TERM...CAL
AVIATION...CAL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
415 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 W Goshen              38.40N 85.62W
07/21/2026                   Oldham             KY   911 Call Center

            Tree down on power lines on roadway at
            Riverside Dr and Harmony Village Rd.

&&

CAL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
418 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Goshen                  38.41N 85.60W
07/21/2026                   Oldham             KY   911 Call Center

            Tree down blocking roadway on Pheasant Ridge
            in Prospect.

&&

CAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
422 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

KYZ036-037-041>043-049-212100-
Bourbon KY-Scott KY-Fayette KY-Nicholas KY-Clark KY-Harrison KY-
422 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SCOTT...NORTHERN CLARK...
BOURBON...NICHOLAS...NORTHERN FAYETTE AND HARRISON COUNTIES THROUGH
500 PM EDT...

At 422 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles south of Brooksville to near
Georgetown. Movement was southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lexington, Georgetown, Winchester, Paris, Cynthiana, Carlisle, Bryan
Station, Thoroughbred Acres, Breckinridge, and Millersburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
central Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3830 8385 3812 8408 3802 8402 3794 8409
      3815 8465 3818 8465 3819 8473 3822 8473
      3857 8437 3858 8420 3855 8421 3855 8416
      3849 8417 3843 8400 3842 8400 3844 8397
      3835 8390 3836 8387 3834 8384
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 294DEG 36KT 3857 8407 3820 8450

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Webb

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
428 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Prospect                38.35N 85.61W
07/21/2026                   Jefferson          KY   911 Call Center

            Tree down on Covered Cove Bridge Rd blocking
            entire roadway.

&&

CAL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
433 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 N Saint Matthews      38.28N 85.64W
07/21/2026                   Jefferson          KY   911 Call Center

            Tree down in roadway N of Brownsboro on Rudy
            Lane.

&&

CAL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
436 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 W Garrett             37.91N 86.15W
07/21/2026                   Meade              KY   911 Call Center

            Tree down blocking entire roadway on Shumate
            Rd at Dave Smith Rd.

&&

CAL