Flash Flood Warning 113, NWS Louisville, KY

930 
WGUS73 KLMK 212158
FFSLMK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
458 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

KYC027-085-093-220000-
/O.CON.KLMK.FF.W.0113.000000T0000Z-260722T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Breckinridge KY-Grayson KY-Hardin KY-
458 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026 /558 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026/

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/
THIS EVENING FOR BRECKINRIDGE, GRAYSON AND HARDIN COUNTIES...

At 458 PM CDT /558 PM EDT/, the public reported water over roadways
near Leitchfield. Between 2 and 3 inches of rain have fallen.
Additional rainfall amounts up to 2 inches are possible in the warned
area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Public reported.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Elizabethtown, Leitchfield, Hardinsburg, Radcliff, Vine Grove,
  Clarkson, Upton and Caneyville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely and have them relay your report to the National
Weather Service in Louisville.

&&

LAT...LON 3777 8667 3786 8622 3780 8615 3782 8601
      3797 8597 3794 8585 3788 8584 3776 8569
      3765 8575 3755 8587 3744 8589 3745 8605
      3737 8652 3740 8661 3756 8666 3757 8663
      3755 8658 3764 8664 3766 8662

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED

$$

BEN

845 
WGUS73 KLMK 212348
FFSLMK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
648 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

KYC027-085-093-212358-
/O.CAN.KLMK.FF.W.0113.000000T0000Z-260722T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Breckinridge KY-Grayson KY-Hardin KY-
648 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026 /748 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026/

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR BRECKINRIDGE, GRAYSON AND HARDIN COUNTIES
HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A FLOOD WARNING...

The heavy rain has ended. A Flood Warning is replacing the Flash
Flood Warning. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 3777 8667 3786 8622 3780 8615 3782 8601
      3797 8597 3794 8585 3788 8584 3776 8569
      3765 8575 3755 8587 3744 8589 3745 8605
      3737 8652 3740 8661 3756 8666 3757 8663
      3755 8658 3764 8664 3766 8662

$$

BEN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
341 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Severe thunderstorms are likely from midday through this evening,
  with all severe hazards possible. Damaging straight-line winds are
  the main hazard, but a few tornadoes and large hail will be
  possible. Localized heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding,
  especially east of I-65.

* Calm weather moves in with cooler than average highs for Wednesday
  through Friday this week.

* Rain chances return late week into the weekend with maximum
  temperatures returning to the 90s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 341 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Semi-discrete supercells have now congealed into a squall line
moving through south-central Indiana and into central Kentucky.
Forecast updates reflect the timing of the system, which is
closely mimicking the HRRR forecast. SPC mesoanalysis ahead of
the squall line has very high CAPE (instability) amounts (SBCAPE
upwards of 4000 J/KG, MLCAPE around 3000 J/KG), effective bulk
shear between 40-50 KTS, PWs of greater than 2 (approaching
climatological maximum for July), DCAPEs greater than 600 J/KG, and
registering elevated numbers on several supercell/tornado
parameters (supercell composite, effective layer STP, effective
layer SRHs). Storms will continue to race toward the
south/southeast direction into a ripe environment for storms to
continue and/or strengthen for the next 4-6 hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

*** Today and Tonight ***

An upper level trough is beginning to drop south into the northern
part of the Ohio Valley. An associated low pressure system over
Ontario is draping a cold front SW through northern IL into the
Central Plains. This front is expected to push through the forecast
area today and tonight. Ahead of the line, PWATS are between 1.5" to
2" across the region (on the order of 75th to 99th percentile for
late July). As storms start to move in this afternoon, PWATS could
reach 2.5" (approaching climatological maximum for late July).
Southern IN counties can expected for storms to start moving in
early afternoon, with a some more discrete storms initially. As the
afternoon progresses, a broken line of storms will beginning to
develop over southern IN and move SW through KY.

All severe threats remain possible for this afternoon and evening.
Gusty winds up to 70 MPH are expected with storms, along with a 1"-
2" hail threat. Isolated large hail is not out of the question, but
has the greatest chance with discrete cellular storms rather than
with the linear convection. A few isolated tornadoes are possible
mainly east of I-65, but not off the table for the remaining of the
forecast area. SBCAPE values are ranging from 2,000 - 4,000 J/kg
across the area providing ample instability for the environment.
Deep layer shear values of 30 - 40 kts are also expected to move in
ahead of this line, adding to the threat of tornadoes. However, LCL
heights are expected to remain marginal which would decrease that
threat slightly. There is also a concern for flash flooding with the
favorable PWAT environment. Storms will produce heavy rainfall
leading to isolated flash flooding, along with any training storms
through the evening hours. A flood watch has been issued for KY
counties mainly east of I-65 that will run through late tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

*** Tomorrow - Monday Night ***

Behind the cold front, a surface high pressure will build into the
Ohio Valley starting tomorrow. The upper level ridge that is
currently in place over the southern Plains will continue to
persist, leaving the Ohio Valley region in a northwesterly flow
aloft. Tomorrow some gusty winds are possible through the day as a
mid-level jet moves through. Maximum temperatures tomorrow are
expected to be in the mid to low 80s tomorrow with the CAA behind
the front. Temperatures will bounce back to the mid to upper 80s by
Saturday.

The next chance for precip will be Friday as a shortwave
trough moves east from the Central Plains. As we move into the late
weekend early week, a couple frontal boundaries will move through
the region. This will likely bring another round of rain showers for
Sunday into Monday. Temperatures to start the week will be in the
upper 80s and low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Convective activity over south central Indiana has initiated and
is starting to move southeastward into the region. General
arrival times are between 18Z and 19Z for south central Indiana
terminals, 19Z and 20Z for Louisville area terminals, and
pushing into central Kentucky (including Lexington, Bardstown,
Elizabethtown areas) for 20Z to 21Z. Sites should expect a few
hours (at least) of strong gusty winds and reduced visibilities
from heavy downpours this evening. Hail is also a concern in
these storms. Once storms pass, general wind direction will be
out of the NW with some chances for patchy MVFR fog later
tonight into tomorrow morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KYZ023-024-026-
     027-061>063-070>076-081.
     Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ033.
     Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Wednesday for KYZ034>043-
     045>049-053>057-063>067-073>078-081-082.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     INZ083-089.

&&

UPDATE...MK
SHORT TERM...CAL
LONG TERM...CAL
AVIATION...CAL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
439 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0401 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 W Muldraugh           37.93N 86.06W
07/21/2026                   Meade              KY   911 Call Center

            Tree down blocking the entire roadway on
            Garrett Road at Fawn Lane.

&&

CAL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
444 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0341 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 ESE Pleasure Ridge Pa 38.15N 85.83W
07/21/2026                   Jefferson          KY   911 Call Center

            Tree and wires down on Saint Andrews Church
            Rd and Woody Ln Radar estimated.

&&

CAL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
447 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0431 PM     Flood            3 W Jeffersontown       38.20N 85.63W
07/21/2026                   Jefferson          KY   911 Call Center

            Water rescue for sinking vehicle in
            floodwaters on Six Mile Lane at Breckenridge
            Lane.

&&

CAL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
451 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 S Doe Valley          37.96N 86.10W
07/21/2026                   Meade              KY   911 Call Center

            Tree down across the roadway completely
            blocked on Fairway Dr at Doe Valley Parkway.

&&

CAL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
457 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 W Muldraugh           37.94N 86.06W
07/21/2026                   Meade              KY   Emergency Mngr

            Large tree down on a house on Lamkin Ln.

&&

AMS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
501 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

KYZ042-043-049-212115-
Bourbon KY-Nicholas KY-Clark KY-
501 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN CLARK...BOURBON AND
CENTRAL NICHOLAS COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

At 501 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Pecks Ridge to near Paris. Movement was
southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Winchester, Paris, Carlisle, North Middletown, Blacks Crossroads,
Hutchison, Renick, Stony Point, Moorefield, and Clintonville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
central Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3830 8385 3818 8399 3812 8408 3793 8397
      3813 8437 3816 8437 3841 8394 3836 8392
      3836 8389 3835 8390 3836 8387 3835 8386
      3833 8386 3834 8384 3832 8385 3831 8384
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 294DEG 28KT 3833 8388 3815 8421

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Webb