Flash Flood Warning 111, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
341 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Severe thunderstorms are likely from midday through this evening,
  with all severe hazards possible. Damaging straight-line winds are
  the main hazard, but a few tornadoes and large hail will be
  possible. Localized heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding,
  especially east of I-65.

* Calm weather moves in with cooler than average highs for Wednesday
  through Friday this week.

* Rain chances return late week into the weekend with maximum
  temperatures returning to the 90s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 341 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Semi-discrete supercells have now congealed into a squall line
moving through south-central Indiana and into central Kentucky.
Forecast updates reflect the timing of the system, which is
closely mimicking the HRRR forecast. SPC mesoanalysis ahead of
the squall line has very high CAPE (instability) amounts (SBCAPE
upwards of 4000 J/KG, MLCAPE around 3000 J/KG), effective bulk
shear between 40-50 KTS, PWs of greater than 2 (approaching
climatological maximum for July), DCAPEs greater than 600 J/KG, and
registering elevated numbers on several supercell/tornado
parameters (supercell composite, effective layer STP, effective
layer SRHs). Storms will continue to race toward the
south/southeast direction into a ripe environment for storms to
continue and/or strengthen for the next 4-6 hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

*** Today and Tonight ***

An upper level trough is beginning to drop south into the northern
part of the Ohio Valley. An associated low pressure system over
Ontario is draping a cold front SW through northern IL into the
Central Plains. This front is expected to push through the forecast
area today and tonight. Ahead of the line, PWATS are between 1.5" to
2" across the region (on the order of 75th to 99th percentile for
late July). As storms start to move in this afternoon, PWATS could
reach 2.5" (approaching climatological maximum for late July).
Southern IN counties can expected for storms to start moving in
early afternoon, with a some more discrete storms initially. As the
afternoon progresses, a broken line of storms will beginning to
develop over southern IN and move SW through KY.

All severe threats remain possible for this afternoon and evening.
Gusty winds up to 70 MPH are expected with storms, along with a 1"-
2" hail threat. Isolated large hail is not out of the question, but
has the greatest chance with discrete cellular storms rather than
with the linear convection. A few isolated tornadoes are possible
mainly east of I-65, but not off the table for the remaining of the
forecast area. SBCAPE values are ranging from 2,000 - 4,000 J/kg
across the area providing ample instability for the environment.
Deep layer shear values of 30 - 40 kts are also expected to move in
ahead of this line, adding to the threat of tornadoes. However, LCL
heights are expected to remain marginal which would decrease that
threat slightly. There is also a concern for flash flooding with the
favorable PWAT environment. Storms will produce heavy rainfall
leading to isolated flash flooding, along with any training storms
through the evening hours. A flood watch has been issued for KY
counties mainly east of I-65 that will run through late tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

*** Tomorrow - Monday Night ***

Behind the cold front, a surface high pressure will build into the
Ohio Valley starting tomorrow. The upper level ridge that is
currently in place over the southern Plains will continue to
persist, leaving the Ohio Valley region in a northwesterly flow
aloft. Tomorrow some gusty winds are possible through the day as a
mid-level jet moves through. Maximum temperatures tomorrow are
expected to be in the mid to low 80s tomorrow with the CAA behind
the front. Temperatures will bounce back to the mid to upper 80s by
Saturday.

The next chance for precip will be Friday as a shortwave
trough moves east from the Central Plains. As we move into the late
weekend early week, a couple frontal boundaries will move through
the region. This will likely bring another round of rain showers for
Sunday into Monday. Temperatures to start the week will be in the
upper 80s and low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Convective activity over south central Indiana has initiated and
is starting to move southeastward into the region. General
arrival times are between 18Z and 19Z for south central Indiana
terminals, 19Z and 20Z for Louisville area terminals, and
pushing into central Kentucky (including Lexington, Bardstown,
Elizabethtown areas) for 20Z to 21Z. Sites should expect a few
hours (at least) of strong gusty winds and reduced visibilities
from heavy downpours this evening. Hail is also a concern in
these storms. Once storms pass, general wind direction will be
out of the NW with some chances for patchy MVFR fog later
tonight into tomorrow morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KYZ023-024-026-
     027-061>063-070>076-081.
     Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ033.
     Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Wednesday for KYZ034>043-
     045>049-053>057-063>067-073>078-081-082.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     INZ083-089.

&&

UPDATE...MK
SHORT TERM...CAL
LONG TERM...CAL
AVIATION...CAL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
333 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 E Pewee Valley        38.31N 85.43W
07/21/2026                   Oldham             KY   911 Call Center

            Tree down blocking entire roadway on W Mount
            Zion Road and Abbott Glen Dr.

&&

CAL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
340 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SW Goshen             38.40N 85.60W
07/21/2026                   Oldham             KY   911 Call Center

            Tree down over wires across the roadway
            completely blocking on Reading Road.

&&

CAL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
351 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 W Goshen              38.40N 85.62W
07/21/2026                   Oldham             KY   911 Call Center

            Tree and lines down on the roadway on
            Harmony Village Rd.

&&

CAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
357 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

KYZ033-035>037-041-212030-
Henry KY-Scott KY-Fayette KY-Franklin KY-Harrison KY-
357 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SCOTT...NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE...
SOUTHWESTERN HARRISON AND NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM
EDT...

At 357 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles south of Owenton, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Georgetown, Frankfort, Stamping Ground, Sadieville, Longlick,
Spindletop Estates, Leesburg, Skinnersburg, Moon Lake Estates, and
Muddy Ford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
central Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3828 8442 3828 8444 3826 8443 3811 8453
      3815 8465 3818 8465 3818 8468 3817 8468
      3818 8471 3819 8473 3818 8476 3826 8499
      3842 8488 3839 8490 3838 8490 3836 8487
      3834 8478 3837 8471 3845 8460 3833 8439
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 296DEG 26KT 3837 8478

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Webb

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
400 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     Flood            3 S Louisville          38.21N 85.76W
07/21/2026                   Jefferson          KY   911 Call Center

            Water rescue for vehicle stuck in flooded
            waters on 2500 block of S 3rd Street.

&&

CAL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
404 PM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0357 PM     Flood            2 SW Louisville         38.24N 85.78W
07/21/2026                   Jefferson          KY   911 Call Center

            Water rescue of vehicle stuck in flood
            waters at West Oak Street and S 15th Street.

&&

CAL