Flash Flood Warning 71, NWS Louisville, KY

303 
WGUS73 KLMK 280301
FFSLMK

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1101 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

INC025-037-061-117-123-KYC027-091-163-280311-
/O.CAN.KLMK.FF.W.0071.000000T0000Z-260628T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Crawford IN-Dubois IN-Harrison IN-Orange IN-Perry IN-Breckinridge
KY-Hancock KY-Meade KY-
1101 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026 /1001 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026/

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR CRAWFORD, DUBOIS, WESTERN 
HARRISON, SOUTHERN ORANGE, PERRY, NORTHERN BRECKINRIDGE, NORTHERN 
HANCOCK AND MEADE COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. The threat for flash flooding has 
diminished. However, a Flood Warning remains in effect for these 
areas through 5 AM EDT Sunday. Please continue to heed remaining 
road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 800 AM EDT Sunday/700 AM CDT 
Sunday for portions of Indiana and Kentucky.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 800 AM EDT Sunday/700 AM CDT 
Sunday for portions of east central, north central, northwest, and 
south central Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3849 8695 3850 8688 3853 8684 3854 8667
      3837 8619 3798 8607 3783 8618 3784 8691
      3788 8689 3791 8693 3789 8698 3793 8698
      3794 8692 3802 8680 3800 8677 3810 8677
      3812 8681 3821 8679 3820 8706 3851 8707

$$

EBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
441 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* The risk for heavy rainfall and flash flooding continues this
  evening across southern IN and central KY. Rainfall amounts of 1
  to 2 inches are possible, with locally higher amounts due to
  training storms. Isolated significant flash flooding is possible.

* Summer heat remains in place his week with a strong ridge
  overhead. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s and feels like
  temperatures will range 100-110 beginning Monday.

* Independence Day looks to not as hot, though highs remain in the
  low 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 440 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

The threat of a significant rainfall and flash flooding event
continues this afternoon through tonight as another round of showers
and thunderstorms develops off in western Kentucky, southern
Indiana, and southern Illinois. Per the latest SPC mesoanalysis, an
area of at least 2" precipitable water extends ahead of a cluster of
showers and storms off to our west and will push eastward over the
coming hours. While the elevated LLJ that was in place during our
initial round of showers and thunderstorms has drifted off to the
east, a new shortwave coinciding with the previously mentioned
showers and storms have aided in the redevelopment of active
weather. Another 25-30 kt LLJ will develop this evening just behind
the current cluster of showers and storms that will allow new
showers and storms to develop tonight in what will still be an area
of rich moisture.

As the surface frontal boundary shifts ever so slightly to the
south, the main track of the showers and storms for this afternoon
and evening will also push south some. The WPC has our southern and
southwestern CWA in a Moderate Risk in their Excessive Rainfall
Outlook, highlighting the more likely higher amounts in our southern
counties. Per the 12z HREF LPMM guidance for 24 hour precipitation,
there are multiple swaths of higher rainfall amounts across southern
Kentucky. The NBM also paints an area of 1-2" rainfall across
southern Kentucky, especially south of I-64. For this area, ex
expect to see an additional 1-2" of rainfall through tonight's
event, though areas of 3"+ in southern Kentucky will be possible
with heavier downpours and/or training showers and storms. As a
result, the threat for flash flooding will continue for this area
through Saturday night into early Sunday.

Another thing to look out for this afternoon and evening is a lower-
end severe weather threat for the far western portions of the CWA.
For areas that have had a reprieve from this morning and afternoon's
rainfall have destabilized some with semi-clearing skies. This has
allowed MLCAPE values to rise to over 2000 J/kg in western Kentucky,
acting as a spark for the ongoing showers and storms in that area.
With that said, the persistent showers and storms that most of the
area has experienced so far today has left an area of very stable
air in its wake. While some destabilization could occur in the coming
hours, there should be enough stable air in place to limit the
extent of severe convection mainly to the western CWA. Damaging
winds will be the primary concern with the strongest thunderstorms,
though a brief isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 440 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

=====Sunday - Tuesday=====
Despite some leftover showers in the morning, Sunday features a
large change in the synoptic weather pattern that will last for most
of this week. Any additional rainfall will be light just after
sunrise and will dissipate quickly ahead of a strong ridge of high
pressure moving over the Gulf states. WAA from SW flow, strong
subsidence, and plenty of sunshine will boost temperatures
above normal this week. With clouds clearing, highs on Sunday will
be in the mid 80s and low 90s, with the hottest temperatures in the
SW where clearing will occur the earliest in the day.

The largest weather story will be the feels like temperatures
soaring into the 90s and 100s this week. On Sunday, feels like
temperatures will be in the 90s to low 100s near Heat Advisory
criteria. Dewpoints from this SW flow will be in the upper 70s,
meaning this new air mass expected coming in Sunday afternoon will
bring very stuffy, oppressive heat and the hottest air of the year
thus far. Climatological 850-500mb height values from the latest
HREF guidance indicates this high will strengthen and barely move
this week, reaching the 95th percentile by midweek. Lows remain warm
Sunday night from these elevated dewpoints in the low to mid 70s.
Considering this, and the amount of rain KY/south IN has received,
there could be isolated areas of fog Sunday morning with mostly
clear skies overnight.

If not for Sunday, then Heat Advisories will be needed for Monday
and Tuesday as the ridge axis and center of the high comes right
overhead. Highs on both days with mostly clear skies will be in the
mid 90s with feels like temps ranging 100-110 degrees during the
day. This is potentially dangerous heat and warrants those working
outside to take longer breaks, drink plenty of water and find ways
to cool down when possible. This week is a good time to check on
those who may not have AC in their home and check on your neighbors
during the day when you can.

=====Wednesday - Weekend=====

Heat Advisories may continue to be issued for Wednesday and Thursday
this week but there's a catch. With continued SW flow and the ridge
axis just sliding off to the east, there may be enough moisture in
the air to form afternoon convection providing some heat relief.
Forecast certainty is low for these storms, though spotty coverage
of some brief downpours can't be ruled out. Highs will still be warm
in the mid 90s with feels like temps still in the 100-110 range.

Into next weekend, the ridge is expected to weaken some, though will
remain stationary over the Gulf keeping temperatures warm heading
into Independence Day. For now, the forecast for the holiday is hot
with highs in the low 90s and a continued chance of spotty afternoon
convection.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms continue to move across
southern Indiana and central Kentucky Saturday afternoon. Showers
and storms that produce heavy downpours could cause reductions in
visibility, which was observed recently with the earlier rounds of
showers and storms. Lightning will also be possible with these
waves, and were included in the TAF as PROB30 groups. While there
is currently a slight decrease in activity, this will quickly ramp
back up in the next couple hours, lasting into the overnight period.
Coverage of showers and storms will finally begin to decrease late
Saturday night, though low MVFR ceilings will linger into Sunday
morning. There is the potential for IFR cigs Sunday morning, though
confidence was too low to include in the TAF. By the end of the TAF
period, winds across most terminals will predominantly be out of the
southwest at 5-8 kt.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ030>043-049.
     Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KYZ023>029-045>048-
     053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

SHORT TERM...BEN
LONG TERM...BKF
AVIATION...BEN

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
311 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     Flash Flood      1 E Richmond            37.74N 84.27W
06/27/2026                   Madison            KY   Public

            Intersection of Eastern Bypass and Irvine Rd
            completely underwater. Car completely
            submerged.

&&

CAL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
323 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     Flash Flood      4 SE Valley View        37.78N 84.39W
06/27/2026                   Madison            KY   Public

            Million Church in Richmond off of Tates
            Creek Rd was swept off its foundation.
            Washed onto the roadway (pictured).

&&

CAL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
352 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     Flash Flood      2 SW Richmond           37.73N 84.31W
06/27/2026                   Madison            KY   Public

            Section of Armitage Dr washed away
            (pictured).

&&

CAL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
421 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     Flash Flood      1 WSW Shrewsbury        37.38N 86.40W
06/27/2026                   Grayson            KY   Public

            Rushing water over the roadway on Renfrow Rd
            and Cook Rd; impassable.

&&

CAL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
433 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     Flash Flood      1 S Shepherdsville      37.97N 85.71W
06/27/2026                   Bullitt            KY   911 Call Center

            Water rescue on S Preston Hwy near KY 480.

&&

CAL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
452 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     Flash Flood      4 NNE Aberdeen          37.30N 86.66W
06/27/2026                   Butler             KY   911 Call Center

            Large area flooded near Dexterville Banock
            and McKendree Chapel Rd.

&&

CAL