Flash Flood Warning 56, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
753 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Flash flooding concerns remain as heavy rainfall chances
  remain in parts of the area through Saturday night.

* Summer heat and humidity build across the region next week, with
  triple digit heat indices likely (70-90% chance) west of I-65 on
  Monday and area-wide Tuesday through at least Friday. This will
  pose a risk for heat-related illness, especially among vulnerable
  populations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 426 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

The Lower Ohio Valley sits under the right entrance region of an
upper jet while an 850 jet is beginning to push in from the west.
This is pulling moisture along a stationary front sitting near
central Indiana. Just to the west, over southeast Missouri and
southwest Illinois, precipitable water values are reaching over 2.1"
in an area with MLCAPE values around 1,500 J/kg. Over southern
Indiana and central Kentucky, instability it trying to recover from
earlier convection.

In the coming hours into the overnight, the system will slide east,
south of the front. The very high PWATs will move eastward along the
Ohio River as the low level jet increases to around 35 knots over
the area. This is expected to produce heavy showers and
thunderstorms. This afternoon and evening, the severe threat isn't
overly concerning, but if instability is able to recover, a few
strong storms could be possible. Overall the severe threat is
expected to remain fairly low with flooding being the main concern
over southern Indiana and north central Kentucky, so our counties
along and north of Interstate 64 will remain in a Flood Watch until
12z tomorrow. Later in the night, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to move with the high PWATs farther south into southern
Kentucky. We issued a Flood Watch for the rest of our counties in
Kentucky beginning at 6z tonight to cover the increased threat. With
training possible and the HREF showing 6-Hour Probability-Matched
Mean totals reaching as high as 3-4 inches in south-central Kentucky
during the day Saturday for multiple runs now, the watch will run
through 6z Sunday for when we believe the highest threat exists.

WAA will keep lows near the dew points in the low 70s to upper 60s.
Tomorrow as winds veer slightly towards the southwest, as surface
low pressure pushes in over central Indiana. With some small periods
of sunshine being possible, temperatures are expected to climb into
the low to mid 80s with dew points in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 426 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Into the day Sunday, PWATs are expected to begin decreasing from the
northwest ahead of a northwest to southeast oriented warm front that
is expected to push east across the CWA Sunday morning, producing
the last round of showers before precipitation finally comes to an
end.

Later Sunday through the rest of the week, an upper ridge axis will
advance east towards the CWA, brining a major shift in the weather
pattern. Dew points in the low 70s and temperatures climbing through
the mid and upper 90s will make it feel hot and sticky. High
pressure under the ridge should keep winds light, providing little
in the way of relieve as heat indices climb into the 90s to low
100s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 753 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

A cluster of storms is moving northeast dropping visibilities to
MVFR/IFR conditions and ceilings to MVFR heights temporarily. Main
threat is gusty winds and lightning within these storms as they move
east through the evening. Once this cluster clears, spotty showers
and storms will linger overnight with ceilings dropping to MVFR
conditions across HNB/SDF/LEX. Except for lowered ceilings in
storms, high end MVFR ceilings are expected for BWG in the morning.
Multiple rounds of storms are expected tomorrow with near MVFR
conditions continuing Saturday morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KYZ030>043-049.
     Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Saturday through late
     Saturday night for KYZ023>029-045>048-053>057-061>067-
     070>078-081-082.
IN...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for INZ076>079-083-084-
     089>092.

&&

SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...BKF

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