Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
101 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible this
  afternoon into tonight; with a Slight Risk across the north and
  a Marginal Risk for severe storms over central and
  southern portions of the area.

- There is a Limited threat for dangerous heat stress today with
  heat index values peaking near 105 degrees.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1057 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

At mid morning satellite imagery showed abundant sunshine with a
cu field developing over our CWA. This has helped temperatures
warm to around 90F already in spots. Our airmass is warm moist
and becoming unstable. Local microburst checklist showed
microbursts will be likely across most of our CWA. In addition
there is a stalled boundary across our northeast along with
convection dropping southeastward across northeast Mississippi. A
Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for our northeast for
severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. An
additional Watch or an expansion of the current Watch is possible
this evening as more organized convection drops into our CWA. With
the heat and humidity across the CWA this morning heat indices
have been on the rise as well. Peak heat index values will be
around 105F in may areas this afternoon. /22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Today into Tonight:

In the short term, an axis of deep moisture and instability
cutting across our area will serve as a focus and fuel for
thunderstorms today. An early morning MCS coming out of the Ozarks
may graze the northeastern portions of our forecast area later
this morning, but the latest suite of high res guidance indicates
the southern flank of the morning MCS or a residual NW-SE oriented
boundary will serve for convection to develop into the afternoon
and evening. Any MCS developing from this continued activity
should feel the influence of wind shear from the west or
northwest, favoring east or southeast moving lines. But as
guidance is indicating, storms in the moist and unstable axis
should have the ability to build southward through the 3000-4000
J/kg of SBCAPE today. The Marginal Risk for severe storms today
primarily accounts for a wind threat with organized lines, though
hail can't be ruled out. The shortwave ridge aloft is helping to
keep temps hot too. A Limited threat for dangerous heat exists
today with heat index values rising to around 105 degrees before
rain moves through.

Tuesday through Sunday:

The pattern will break down, with a ridge drifting into the Great
Lakes region and a trough sliding south toward the Gulf Coast.
This should push a cold front into and through the area Tuesday
into Wednesday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will be pushed
mainly to the south where better moisture and instability reside.
The slightest of chances is retained in the southern tier or our
forecast area on Wednesday, but could be a day without rain
anywhere as PWAT values drop below an inch in our northeast.

Dry air and cooler temps can't persist for too long in early June,
and by Friday, the ridge shifts and a surge of 2+ inch PWATs moves
back into the southern Mississippi River Valley. Areawide 50-60%
POPs return for next weekend with showers and thunderstorms back
in the forecast. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

VFR conditions wl prevail through the aftn into the evening but
local radars were showing isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA
developing across the north that wl increase in coverage and
affect TAF sites. Once the TSRA dissipate toward 06Z VFR
conditions wl prevail until 11Z when MVFR cigs wl develop. MVFR
cigs wl prevail until improving after 16Z. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       93  73  89  68 /  40  20  50  10
Meridian      94  72  89  66 /  60  20  50  10
Vicksburg     93  74  89  69 /  20  30  30  10
Hattiesburg   93  73  91  69 /  40  40  70  30
Natchez       94  74  91  70 /  40  20  50  20
Greenville    93  73  87  67 /  10  50  10   0
Greenwood     93  72  87  66 /  40  60  20   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

22/NF/22

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