Severe Thunderstorm Warning 239, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
242 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme Heat Warning in effect through 8 PM, Heat Advisory
  afterwards through 9PM Saturday

- Thunderstorm chances will increase after 7PM today with downbursts
  possible

- Greater storm coverage for Saturday with a lower threat for severe
  weather; Storms may impact outdoor activities on Saturday
  afternoon and Saturday Night.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows strong high pressure in
place over WVA. Low pressure was found over western KS. Aloft, water
vapor showed a strong area of high pressure over the Carolinas and
VA, and a tropical plume of moisture was streaming north across TX
and OK toward the upper midwest. Indiana was still under the
influence of of this strong high pressure system, allowing a
stagnant air mass, with very warm temperatures. Within the
convective plume, an upper level disturbance over northern Illinois
was interacting with the very hot, unstable airmass and convection
was developing. Heat Index readings across Central Indiana were
reaching the 105-110 range.

Tonight...A few stray thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon
and early evening, but this diurnal convection is expected to wane
this evening as heating is lost. The upper steering flow across the
southern Great Lakes is expected to sag southward overnight as this
past weeks/s ridge departs to the east. Although this could allow
for some overnight convection across far northwest Central Indiana,
it will mainly set the state for the more active weather expected
for the next two days. Thus after very isolated storms are gone this
evening, mainly partly cloudy skies will be expected with another
hit and humid night with dew points still remaining in the 70s.

Saturday and Saturday Night...Mainly dry and humid weather will
begin the day. However, models show the upper flow will have sagged
south across Central Indiana, and our area will no longer be
protected from forcing dynamics by ridging. Models suggest a
moderate short wave passing on Saturday Night. There will be little
change in the air mass prior to this feature arriving, allowing for
a favorable column for storms. CAPE on Saturday afternoon is
expected to reach over 2500 J/KG with pwats over 1.75. HRRR suggests
widespread late afternoon convective devlopment across central
Indiana persisting into the evening hours as the warm, unstable air
mass interacts with the passing short wave. Timing of these storms
could impacts fireworks displays on Saturday night. Due to the high
pwats, torrential rainfall will be possible.

Regarding temperatures, a slightly cooler day will be expected as
high clouds from upstream convection may be passing during the
morning hours and afternoon convection may limit max heating to the
mid 90s.

Sunday and Sunday Night...As we begin Sunday morning, dry weather
should be present as we start the day. The warm and humid air mass
will still be in place as southwest lower level flow remain due to
surface high pressure remaining in place over the Carolinas and weak
low pressure north of Indiana. The upper flow will allow yet another
short wave to approach Central Indiana from the northwest. Again,
forecast soundings appear favorable for convection, with steep lapse
rates and favorable CAPE in play. This will once again lead to
diurnal afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The upper
forcing looks to arrive during the late afternoon and into the
evening. This should result in another round of widespread
thunderstorms. Severe storms cannot cannot be ruled out and due to
the high pwats, again heavy rain will still be in play.

Monday through Friday

The upper ridge axis will retrograde early next week positioning
central Indiana on the periphery of an active, progressive northwest
flow regime aloft. As a series of low-amplitude shortwave troughs
and embedded convective impulses traverse the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley...expect daily opportunities for scattered showers and
thunderstorms to continue.

Convective potential remains largely diurnally driven and mesoscale
dependent on Monday and Tuesday focusing along residual outflow
boundaries. Pulse severe hazards...specifically localized
downbursts...will remain a secondary threat but with lower overall
coverage as thermodynamics become less intense. Weak surface ridging
on Tuesday may actually limit convection to isolated at best.

For the second half of next week...extended ensemble guidance
indicates a deeper and more cohesive northern stream shortwave
digging out of southern Canada. This feature will push a cold front
southward through the region by Thursday with a greater risk for
more robust and organized convection. In the wake of this frontal
passage, strong Canadian high pressure will overspread the area and
introduce a much drier and cooler airmass into the region. This will
effectively suppress temperatures and humidity back to near to
slightly below seasonal averages by the end of next week into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 104 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Impacts:

- Isolated TSRA, mainly from through 04Z; otherwise VFR.

Discussion:

VFR conditions will expected through much of this TAF period.
Diurnal heating will allow for isolated convection this afternoon
and evening as steep lapse rates plentiful CAPE is available.  This
has led to sct-bkn CU across the area with one storm south of BMG
developing.

As heating is lost tonight, any storms will subside, leading to just
VFR Conditions.

More storms will be possible on Saturday afternoon, especially
across northern Indiana as sagging upper flow there begins to
provide forcing combining with the hot, humid, unstable air mass in
place.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 9 PM EDT Saturday for
INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

AVIATION...Puma
DISCUSSION...Puma/Ryan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
246 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-041900-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
246 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

Peak heat index values between 105 and 110 are expected this
afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms this evening with a few strong to
severe storms possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Peak heat index values up to 105 Saturday. Additional storms are
expected Saturday afternoon and evening and into early next week
with a few strong to severe storms possible on Saturday. Storms may
impact outdoor activities on Saturday afternoon and evening.
Lightning is a threat from any thunderstorm.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any severe weather through the
weekend.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
457 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

INZ038>041-032200-
Tipton IN-Madison IN-Delaware IN-Hamilton IN-
457 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Madison,
northwestern Delaware, eastern Hamilton and eastern Tipton Counties
through 600 PM EDT...

At 457 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Noblesville, or 11 miles west of Anderson, moving northeast at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Anderson, Fishers, Noblesville, Elwood, Alexandria, Tipton, Windfall,
Westfield, Cicero, Pendleton, Fortville, Ingalls, Lapel, Edgewood,
Frankton, Arcadia, Summitville, Gaston, Atlanta, and Orestes.

This includes Interstate 69 between mile markers 210 and 222, and
between mile markers 238 and 251.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4038 8586 4038 8534 3994 8583 4007 8614
      4041 8599 4041 8586
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 214DEG 22KT 4005 8590

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

ME

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
516 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

INZ041-032200-
Delaware IN-
516 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Delaware County
through 600 PM EDT...

At 515 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Muncie, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Muncie, Yorktown, Chesterfield, Albany, Eaton, Daleville, Selma, and
Ball State University.

This includes Interstate 69 between mile markers 232 and 239.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4008 8548 4008 8558 4019 8558 4038 8537
      4038 8522 4017 8522
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 234DEG 16KT 4020 8545

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

ME

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
518 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

INZ041-042-049-032215-
Randolph IN-Henry IN-Delaware IN-
518 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Randolph,
southeastern Delaware and northeastern Henry Counties through 615 PM
EDT...

At 518 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles north of New Castle to 8 miles north of
Hagerstown. Movement was northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Winchester, Union City, Parker City, Farmland, Lynn, Selma,
Ridgeville, Mooreland, Mount Summit, Saratoga, Losantville, Modoc,
Blountsville, Summit Lake State Park, and Prairie Creek Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 8520 3996 8520 4001 8541 4031 8521
      4031 8480 4001 8481
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 230DEG 22KT 4003 8535 4002 8511

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

ME

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
531 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0359 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Whiteland               39.55N 86.08W
07/03/2026                   Johnson            IN   Public

            Two trees downed onto a house by
            thunderstorm wind gusts. Multiple nearby
            trees also downed.

&&

GM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
550 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0516 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 W Edgewood            40.10N 85.76W
07/03/2026                   Madison            IN   Emergency Mngr

            Multiple powerlines downed by thunderstorm
            wind gusts between Lapel and Anderson.

&&

GM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
554 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0534 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 ESE Alexandria        40.25N 85.66W
07/03/2026  E60 MPH          Madison            IN   Trained Spotter

            Trained spotter reported estimated wind
            gusts up to 60 mph.

&&

GM