Severe Thunderstorm Warning 237, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
242 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme Heat Warning in effect through 8 PM, Heat Advisory
  afterwards through 9PM Saturday

- Thunderstorm chances will increase after 7PM today with downbursts
  possible

- Greater storm coverage for Saturday with a lower threat for severe
  weather; Storms may impact outdoor activities on Saturday
  afternoon and Saturday Night.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows strong high pressure in
place over WVA. Low pressure was found over western KS. Aloft, water
vapor showed a strong area of high pressure over the Carolinas and
VA, and a tropical plume of moisture was streaming north across TX
and OK toward the upper midwest. Indiana was still under the
influence of of this strong high pressure system, allowing a
stagnant air mass, with very warm temperatures. Within the
convective plume, an upper level disturbance over northern Illinois
was interacting with the very hot, unstable airmass and convection
was developing. Heat Index readings across Central Indiana were
reaching the 105-110 range.

Tonight...A few stray thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon
and early evening, but this diurnal convection is expected to wane
this evening as heating is lost. The upper steering flow across the
southern Great Lakes is expected to sag southward overnight as this
past weeks/s ridge departs to the east. Although this could allow
for some overnight convection across far northwest Central Indiana,
it will mainly set the state for the more active weather expected
for the next two days. Thus after very isolated storms are gone this
evening, mainly partly cloudy skies will be expected with another
hit and humid night with dew points still remaining in the 70s.

Saturday and Saturday Night...Mainly dry and humid weather will
begin the day. However, models show the upper flow will have sagged
south across Central Indiana, and our area will no longer be
protected from forcing dynamics by ridging. Models suggest a
moderate short wave passing on Saturday Night. There will be little
change in the air mass prior to this feature arriving, allowing for
a favorable column for storms. CAPE on Saturday afternoon is
expected to reach over 2500 J/KG with pwats over 1.75. HRRR suggests
widespread late afternoon convective devlopment across central
Indiana persisting into the evening hours as the warm, unstable air
mass interacts with the passing short wave. Timing of these storms
could impacts fireworks displays on Saturday night. Due to the high
pwats, torrential rainfall will be possible.

Regarding temperatures, a slightly cooler day will be expected as
high clouds from upstream convection may be passing during the
morning hours and afternoon convection may limit max heating to the
mid 90s.

Sunday and Sunday Night...As we begin Sunday morning, dry weather
should be present as we start the day. The warm and humid air mass
will still be in place as southwest lower level flow remain due to
surface high pressure remaining in place over the Carolinas and weak
low pressure north of Indiana. The upper flow will allow yet another
short wave to approach Central Indiana from the northwest. Again,
forecast soundings appear favorable for convection, with steep lapse
rates and favorable CAPE in play. This will once again lead to
diurnal afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The upper
forcing looks to arrive during the late afternoon and into the
evening. This should result in another round of widespread
thunderstorms. Severe storms cannot cannot be ruled out and due to
the high pwats, again heavy rain will still be in play.

Monday through Friday

The upper ridge axis will retrograde early next week positioning
central Indiana on the periphery of an active, progressive northwest
flow regime aloft. As a series of low-amplitude shortwave troughs
and embedded convective impulses traverse the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley...expect daily opportunities for scattered showers and
thunderstorms to continue.

Convective potential remains largely diurnally driven and mesoscale
dependent on Monday and Tuesday focusing along residual outflow
boundaries. Pulse severe hazards...specifically localized
downbursts...will remain a secondary threat but with lower overall
coverage as thermodynamics become less intense. Weak surface ridging
on Tuesday may actually limit convection to isolated at best.

For the second half of next week...extended ensemble guidance
indicates a deeper and more cohesive northern stream shortwave
digging out of southern Canada. This feature will push a cold front
southward through the region by Thursday with a greater risk for
more robust and organized convection. In the wake of this frontal
passage, strong Canadian high pressure will overspread the area and
introduce a much drier and cooler airmass into the region. This will
effectively suppress temperatures and humidity back to near to
slightly below seasonal averages by the end of next week into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 104 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Impacts:

- Isolated TSRA, mainly from through 04Z; otherwise VFR.

Discussion:

VFR conditions will expected through much of this TAF period.
Diurnal heating will allow for isolated convection this afternoon
and evening as steep lapse rates plentiful CAPE is available.  This
has led to sct-bkn CU across the area with one storm south of BMG
developing.

As heating is lost tonight, any storms will subside, leading to just
VFR Conditions.

More storms will be possible on Saturday afternoon, especially
across northern Indiana as sagging upper flow there begins to
provide forcing combining with the hot, humid, unstable air mass in
place.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 9 PM EDT Saturday for
INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

AVIATION...Puma
DISCUSSION...Puma/Ryan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
246 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-041900-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
246 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

Peak heat index values between 105 and 110 are expected this
afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms this evening with a few strong to
severe storms possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Peak heat index values up to 105 Saturday. Additional storms are
expected Saturday afternoon and evening and into early next week
with a few strong to severe storms possible on Saturday. Storms may
impact outdoor activities on Saturday afternoon and evening.
Lightning is a threat from any thunderstorm.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any severe weather through the
weekend.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
210 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

INZ062-070-031845-
Lawrence IN-Monroe IN-
210 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Monroe
and northeastern Lawrence Counties through 245 PM EDT...

At 209 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Bedford, moving east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bedford, Oolitic, Heltonville, Avoca, Smithville, Monroe Reservoir,
Fairfax State Recreation Area, Charles Deam Wilderness, Harrodsburg,
and Bartlettsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3881 8655 3908 8658 3910 8637 3905 8637
      3905 8632 3898 8632 3883 8641
TIME...MOT...LOC 1809Z 281DEG 6KT 3898 8649

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

ME

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
226 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

INZ062-063-070-071-031915-
Brown IN-Lawrence IN-Jackson IN-Monroe IN-
226 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Monroe,
southern Brown, eastern Lawrence and western Jackson Counties through
315 PM EDT...

At 226 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 13 miles southeast of Bloomington to 7 miles
southeast of Bedford. Movement was east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Bedford, Mitchell, Medora, Norman, Heltonville, Freetown, Tunnelton,
Bartlettsville, Vallonia, Spurgeons Corner, Pleasant View, Spring
Mill State Park, Monroe Reservoir, Elkinsville, Kurtz, Charles Deam
Wilderness, and Story.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3869 8646 3910 8646 3912 8608 3877 8607
      3878 8610 3877 8610 3876 8612 3877 8617
      3878 8618 3878 8620 3877 8622 3878 8623
      3876 8625 3877 8626 3876 8628 3873 8629
      3873 8631 3869 8631
TIME...MOT...LOC 1826Z 254DEG 16KT 3900 8640 3878 8640

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

ME

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
250 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

INZ055-063-064-071-072-031930-
Johnson IN-Brown IN-Bartholomew IN-Jackson IN-Jennings IN-
250 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Brown, southwestern
Johnson, Bartholomew, northeastern Jackson and west central Jennings
Counties through 330 PM EDT...

At 250 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southwest of Nashville to Brownstown.
Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Columbus, Seymour, Brownstown, Nashville, Edinburgh, Princes Lakes,
Trafalgar, Elizabethtown, Jonesville, Peoga, Helmsburg, Waymansville,
Freetown, Beanblossom, Gnaw Bone, Spurgeons Corner, Yellowwood Lake,
Azalia, Spearsville, and Cortland.

This includes Interstate 65 between mile markers 50 and 76.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3886 8610 3905 8619 3919 8636 3921 8637
      3925 8637 3925 8638 3930 8638 3934 8630
      3934 8625 3937 8625 3947 8608 3902 8569
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 233DEG 17KT 3915 8633 3889 8608

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

ME

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
343 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

INZ054-055-032015-
Johnson IN-Morgan IN-
343 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Morgan
and northern Johnson Counties through 415 PM EDT...

At 343 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Franklin, or 20 miles south of Indianapolis, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Greenwood, Franklin, New Whiteland, Whiteland, Bargersville, and
Waverly.

This includes Interstate 65 between mile markers 94 and 97.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3943 8619 3947 8632 3963 8627 3957 8600
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 216DEG 17KT 3949 8622

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

ME

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
408 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

INZ039-040-047>049-055>057-032115-
Rush IN-Johnson IN-Henry IN-Shelby IN-Madison IN-Hancock IN-
Hamilton IN-Marion IN-
408 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southern Madison,
northern Shelby, Hancock, Rush, northeastern Johnson, southern Henry,
Marion and southern Hamilton Counties through 515 PM EDT...

At 408 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Southport to 9 miles northeast of Shelbyville.
Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Indianapolis, Shelbyville, Carmel, Fishers, Noblesville, Greenwood,
Lawrence, Greenfield, New Castle, Beech Grove, Speedway, Rushville,
Southport, Westfield, Cumberland, McCordsville, Pendleton, Fortville,
Ingalls, and Knightstown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3979 8530 3965 8530 3945 8543 3945 8549
      3964 8627 4009 8617 3998 8561 3987 8522
      3979 8522
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 212DEG 32KT 3968 8612 3958 8562

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

ME

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
457 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

INZ038>041-032200-
Tipton IN-Madison IN-Delaware IN-Hamilton IN-
457 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Madison,
northwestern Delaware, eastern Hamilton and eastern Tipton Counties
through 600 PM EDT...

At 457 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Noblesville, or 11 miles west of Anderson, moving northeast at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Anderson, Fishers, Noblesville, Elwood, Alexandria, Tipton, Windfall,
Westfield, Cicero, Pendleton, Fortville, Ingalls, Lapel, Edgewood,
Frankton, Arcadia, Summitville, Gaston, Atlanta, and Orestes.

This includes Interstate 69 between mile markers 210 and 222, and
between mile markers 238 and 251.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4038 8586 4038 8534 3994 8583 4007 8614
      4041 8599 4041 8586
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 214DEG 22KT 4005 8590

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

ME