Severe Thunderstorm Warning 236, NWS Indianapolis, IN

222 
WWUS53 KIND 031736
SVSIND

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
136 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

INC027-031744-
/O.CAN.KIND.SV.W.0236.000000T0000Z-260703T1745Z/
Daviess IN-
136 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN DAVIESS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled. 
Additional thunderstorms may move back into the area from the 
southwest through 230 PM EDT.

LAT...LON 3882 8692 3882 8690 3886 8690 3898 8665
      3878 8661 3868 8692
TIME...MOT...LOC 1734Z 239DEG 8KT 3877 8690 

$$

INC055-093-101-031745-
/O.CON.KIND.SV.W.0236.000000T0000Z-260703T1745Z/
Martin IN-Greene IN-Lawrence IN-
136 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN MARTIN...SOUTHEASTERN GREENE AND NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE
COUNTIES...

At 134 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located across the 
northern half of Martin County, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Loogootee, Silverville, Williams, Owensburg, Burns City, and Indian
Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3882 8692 3882 8690 3886 8690 3898 8665
      3878 8661 3868 8692
TIME...MOT...LOC 1734Z 239DEG 8KT 3877 8690 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Ryan

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
105 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme Heat Warning in effect through 8 PM today, Heat
  Advisory afterwards through 9PM Saturday

- Thunderstorm chances will increase after 7PM today with downbursts
  possible

- Greater storm coverage for Saturday with a lower threat for severe
  weather

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 847 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Surface analysis late this morning shows strong high pressure in
place over WVA. Low pressure was found over western KS. A weak
outflow boundary from yesterday/s convection was found south of MIE
and toward Greenfield. Aloft, water vapor showed a strong area of
high pressure over the Carolinas and VA, and a tropical plume of
moisture was streaming north across TX and OK toward the upper
midwest. Indiana was still under the influence of of this strong
high pressure system, allowing a stagnant air mass, with very warm
temperatures.

As the previous discussion states, forecast soundings suggest a very
unstable column today, but warm temperatures within the mid levels
and a lack of forcing should limit convection potential this
afternoon. Some CU development is suggested, but HRRR shows any
convection, albeit very isolated remaining across northern Indiana
through the afternoon hours. Thus precipitation will not be expected
through this afternoon. Given the little change in the overall air
mass, high temperatures and heat index values will be similar to
persistence. Overall, ongoing forecast remains in good shape.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 131 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Overview.

Patchy fog early this morning will give way to another day of
high heat and humidity, with heat indices above 105 degrees.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop during the late afternoon
and evening hours both today and tomorrow, presenting a severe
localized downburst and damaging wind threat. A slow cooling trend
begins Sunday, though daily chances for scattered showers and
storms will persist through mid-week.

Today through Saturday.

Near-surface saturation from residual boundary layer moisture and
light to calm winds beneath a lingering low-level inversion will
support patchy radiation fog development early this morning. This
will primarily impact river valleys and low-lying areas before
rapidly dissipating by 13Z with the onset of diurnal mixing.

Thereafter, focus shifts to both the heat and storm chances today.
While the anomalous sub-tropical ridge across the Ohio Valley begins
to subtly deamplify and suppress southward, 850mb temperatures
around +22C to +24C and intense diabatic heating will act on a
high theta-e airmass. With surface dew points forecast in the mid
to upper 70s, convective temperatures will quickly be breached in
the low 90s, driving peak afternoon heat indices between 105 and
110 degrees both Friday and Saturday.

Weakening large-scale subsidence will allow the capping inversion
near 700 mb to erode, clearing the way for convective initiation
during the peak diurnal heating windows. For Friday, timing for
isolated to scattered convective development is centered between 23Z
and 04Z, focusing along subtle mesoscale convergence zones or
differential heating boundaries. On Saturday, a weak, low-amplitude
shortwave traversing the flattening ridge periphery will provide
slightly stronger synoptic forcing, shifting the initiation window
slightly earlier to 19Z to 03Z and yielding higher storm coverage.

Thermodynamics both days are exceptionally potent, with MLCAPE
values progged to exceed 3500-4000 J/kg. While weak deep-layer
vertical wind shear of less than 20kts will limit organized, long-
lived updrafts or supercellular structures, the environment is
classic for severe pulse convection and microbursts. Model soundings
display an ideal profile for severe downburst generation: PWAT
values near 2.1 inches maximizing precipitation loading aloft,
combined with steep low-level lapse rates with 0-3 km lapse rates
exceeding 7.5 C/km and a dry mid-level layer creating DCAPE values
over 1300 J/kg. Updrafts will rapidly accelerate, load heavy water
cores, and subsequently collapse as intense negative buoyancy and
evaporative cooling accelerate air downward. This may result in
localized, significant straight-line downburst winds capable of
exceeding 60-70 mph. The severe weather threat for today looks
higher than Saturday with storm coverage on Saturday looking greater
compared to today.

With the heat indices expected to top out in the low 100s again
today, opted to issue a Heat Advisory with the known uncertainty as
to storms bringing earlier relief than the current 9 PM endtime.
With the extended stretch of heat already combined with the
holiday weekend, felt the headline was warranted even as we remain
just under typical criteria.

Sunday through Thursday.

The synoptic pattern undergoes a more noticeable transition by
Sunday as the sub-tropical ridge is forced further into the Gulf
Coast states, positioning central Indiana on the southern periphery
of an active, progressive northwest flow regime aloft. This will
open the door for a series of low-amplitude shortwave troughs and
embedded convective impulses to traverse the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley through the mid-term period. While the extreme, warning-level
heat will subside as 850mb temperatures drop back toward +18C, a
warm, moist, and moderately unstable airmass will linger,
maintaining daily opportunities for scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

Convection during the Sunday through Monday timeframe will remain
largely diurnal and mesoscale-dependent, focusing along residual
outflow boundaries. Pulse severe hazards, specifically localized
downbursts, will remain a secondary threat but with lower overall
coverage as thermodynamics become less extreme.

By Tuesday into Wednesday, long-range ensemble guidance indicates a
deeper, more cohesive northern stream shortwave digging out of south-
central Canada. This feature will propel a distinct surface cold
front southward through the state, serving as a robust linear
forcing mechanism for more organized shower and thunderstorm
development. In the wake of this frontal passage, strong high-
pressure of Canadian origin will overspread the Midwest, inducing
robust cold air advection and dropping a much drier, cooler airmass
into the region. This will effectively suppress temperatures and
humidity back to slightly below seasonal averages by next Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 104 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Impacts:

- Isolated TSRA, mainly from through 04Z; otherwise VFR.

Discussion:

VFR conditions will expected through much of this TAF period.
Diurnal heating will allow for isolated convection this afternoon
and evening as steep lapse rates plentiful CAPE is available.  This
has led to sct-bkn CU across the area with one storm south of BMG
developing.

As heating is lost tonight, any storms will subside, leading to just
VFR Conditions.

More storms will be possible on Saturday afternoon, especially
across northern Indiana as sagging upper flow there begins to
provide forcing combining with the hot, humid, unstable air mass in
place.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 9 PM EDT Saturday for
INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

UPDATE...Puma
AVIATION...Puma
DISCUSSION...White

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
247 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-040700-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
247 AM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Peak heat index values between 105 and 110 are expected this
afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms this evening with a few strong to
severe storms possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Peak heat index values up to 105 Saturday. Additional showers and
storms expected Saturday into early next week with a few strong to
severe storms possible on Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any severe weather through the
weekend.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1233 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

INZ068-069-031700-
Daviess IN-Martin IN-
1233 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Martin
and northeastern Daviess Counties through 100 PM EDT...

At 1233 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northeast of Washington, or 23 miles northeast of Petersburg,
moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Odon, Plainville, Montgomery, and West Boggs Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3880 8717 3890 8698 3890 8697 3875 8685
      3866 8706
TIME...MOT...LOC 1633Z 238DEG 10KT 3877 8703

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Ryan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1255 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

INZ061-068-069-031730-
Daviess IN-Martin IN-Greene IN-
1255 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of western Martin,
southeastern Greene and Daviess Counties through 130 PM EDT...

At 1255 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 12 miles northwest of Shoals to 10 miles
northwest of Jasper. Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Loogootee, Odon, Elnora, Montgomery, Newberry, Crane, Cannelburg,
Alfordsville, West Boggs Lake, Burns City, and Glendale Fishery.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3850 8696 3850 8698 3851 8700 3851 8704
      3850 8706 3851 8707 3851 8708 3852 8708
      3854 8711 3892 8709 3895 8673 3850 8691
      3851 8693 3849 8695
TIME...MOT...LOC 1655Z 228DEG 16KT 3883 8691 3852 8705

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Ryan