Severe Thunderstorm Warning 320, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1230 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Numerous storms expected this evening through Sunday morning
  with severe storms and flooding likely.

- Additional round of storms likely late Sunday afternoon into Sunday
  night mainly in southeast and southern KS with severe storms
  and flooding possible.

- Below normal high temperatures are forecast for much of next
  week with highs in the 80s and periodic rain chances possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

An upper shortwave trough is tracking east across the Central Great
Basin towards the Central Rockies with lee troughing strengthening
over much of the Rockies. A surface low is in eastern Colorado with
a warm front extending across northern Kansas. There are ongoing
showers and storms in central Nebraska due to 850-700mb warm moist
advection. This activity is moving southeast making it possible to
clip our central counties late this afternoon. Another round of
storms is expected to develop this afternoon in eastern Colorado and
eastern Wyoming from upslope flow and convergence, resulting in
another round of storms impacting our area. These storms are
anticipated to move into western Nebraska and western Kansas and
grow upscale as the upper shortwave continues to move into the
Central Rockies. This round of storms would likely impact
central KS after about 9 PM. There is still uncertainty with how
far south and east this MCS tracks with some guidance
suggesting another MCS diving southeast out of Nebraska through
much of our area in the late overnight hours into Sunday
morning. The main threats continue to be damaging winds with
gusts up to 60-80 mph and potentially flooding concerns. Heavy
rainfall is likely given the moist airmass with PWATs
approaching maximum values for this time of year, increasing the
potential for high rainfall rates; however, if this system
remains progressive, it could reduce some widespread flooding. A
brief tornado and hail threat cannot be ruled out especially
this evening if storms develop out ahead of the MCS but the main
concern is damaging winds. By Sunday morning, activity is
expected to have shifted to eastern KS with storms progged to
continue moving east into Missouri by mid morning, though
chances may linger in southeast KS from low-level WAA.

A lull in storms is forecast for late Sunday morning through the
early afternoon before another round of storms is possible late
Sunday afternoon. There is some question as to where the outflow
boundary from overnight/Sunday morning convection will end up. Model
guidance suggests a boundary across southeast KS with convergence
along it, resulting in additional storm development mainly in
southeast and parts of southern KS. Assuming this is where the
boundary sets up, plenty of instability and wind shear are
anticipated making any storm that develops having the potential to
be severe with the primary hazards being damaging winds and large
hail. Storm chances will start to diminish Sunday night as storms
move south and east of the area. Additionally, its possible for some
of our southern most counties to approach Heat Advisory criteria if
this is where the boundary sets up, though given uncertainty at this
time decided not to issue one, though later forecast shifts can
reevaluate.

Continuing into next week, most of Monday looks to remain dry as the
front will be south of our area. Periodic rain chances look possible
for much of the week as the upper air pattern remains relatively
active as multiple shortwave troughs are progged to move across
the region. A shortwave trough is expected to move into the
Northern Plains late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Its
possible for rain chances to clip parts of our area but better
chances remain out of our area. Flow aloft transitions to
westerly/northwesterly over the Plains as ridging builds into
the western CONUS with embedded shortwaves anticipated to ride
the ridging. This will keep periodic shower and storm chances
possible through much of the week with higher chances likely in
the evenings into the overnight hours. For temperatures, highs
are forecast to be in the low to mid 80s through much of the
work week which is about 5-10 degrees below normal for this time
of year.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

A line of thunderstorms is currently traversing the forecast
area bringing heavy rain and strong winds to the area. HUT and
ICT will see these impacts to start the TAF period. Additional
thunderstorms are expected overnight with the main impacts being
reduced vis, low cigs, and occasionally breezy winds.

Storms will shift out of the area and cigs will lift to VFR
levels generally after 12-15Z. Additional storms are possible
for south-central and southeastern Kansas towards the end of the
forecast time frame, but confidence remains low on exact
location as it will depend on where boundaries linger following
overnight storm activity.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this afternoon for KSZ033-048-049-051>053.
Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ070>072.

&&

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...ADK/AMD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
227 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-211930-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
227 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
east central Kansas, south central Kansas and southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A complex of storms is expected to track out of northwest Kansas
and southern Nebraska tonight into early Sunday morning, affecting
much of the area. 60 to 80 mph winds, ping pong ball size hail,
heavy rain and some flooding concerns will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Storms will linger Sunday morning across eastern Kansas with
damaging winds and flooding possible. Additional storms are
expected to develop Sunday afternoon and evening, especially across
southern Kansas. Large hail, damaging downburst winds and flooding
will be possible with the stronger storms.

Periodic storm chances will remain for Tuesday through Friday with
strong and severe storms possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated this afternoon or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1238 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1232 AM     Flood            Russell                 38.89N 98.86W
06/21/2026                   Russell            KS   Emergency Mngr

            Street flooding with some cars stalled. A
            few residence basements flooding.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1252 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1246 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 NNW Andale            37.82N 97.64W
06/21/2026  M65 MPH          Sedgwick           KS   Mesonet

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1256 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1236 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 N Mt Vernon           37.74N 97.85W
06/21/2026  E60 MPH          Reno               KS   Public

            Est. 50 to 60 mph winds. Report from social
            media. Time estimated from radar.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
115 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1258 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Maize                   37.78N 97.47W
06/21/2026  E70 MPH          Sedgwick           KS   Trained Spotter

            Est gusts 65 to 70 mph.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
116 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0113 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 NW East Wichita       37.70N 97.27W
06/21/2026  E70 MPH          Sedgwick           KS   Trained Spotter

            70 mph winds along with a few tree branches
            down.

&&