River Flood Warning 29, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
645 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms continue this morning with some low end severe and
  flooding possible. Storms will be possible again this
  afternoon and evening for mainly southern KS with some large
  hail and damaging winds possible, along with high rainfall
  rates.

- Pattern will remain active for most of next week, mainly
  starting Tuesday night and continuing through Friday. The
  main scenario will be for storms to develop over the High
  Plains during the afternoon and roll east through the
  overnight hours.

- Below normal temps will continue, with highs each day expected
  to be in the 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Large complex of storms is currently making their way across central
and eastern KS with some additional development across northwest KS
that is also tracking off to the southeast.  This whole area of
storms is being fed by very strong 850-700mb theta-e advection that
is gradually shifting from western KS into central KS. Storms are
expected to continue for the next several hours, and by 12z,
storms will mainly be affecting eastern and southern portions of
the forecast area with most of this initial activity exiting
the area by 16-17z. While some damaging winds will remain a
threat through the morning hours, the wind threat has come down
slightly from where it was a few hours ago. However, very
frequent lightning and high rainfall rates are still likely.

Still looking for storms to redevelop this afternoon along the cold
front but with large complex of storms moving across southern KS as
we speak, confidence is low on how far north the front will be by
this afternoon, so this will be something the day shift will
need to monitor. Another mid/upper trough, that is currently
located over the Central Rockies, will move through the area
this evening and may result in some additional development
generally along the 850mb front. While shear will be less than
what we had overnight, there should be enough instability across
southern KS for some hail and downburst winds. In addition, PWs
will remain very high so high rainfall rates and flooding will
also be possible with any storms tonight. Any storms that
develop over southern KS tonight should push southeast fairly
quickly and be out of the forecast area by around 09z.

We look to get a break from storms during the day Monday with the
highest storm potential in the upslope regime over western KS. There
is another upper perturbation forecast to move out of the
central/southern Rockies Mon night and may bring some small chances
for storms to mainly southern KS. However, current thinking is that
the better chances will be south of the forecast area, closer to the
front.  There will be some small storm chances during the day Tue,
but better chances look to arrive Tue night as a more substantial
upper impulse moves through with a good low level jet response.
Pattern will remain very active with decent model agreement in
storms developing over the High Plains Thu and across our forecast
area Thu night into Fri morning.

Confidence remains very high in below normal temperatures remaining
through this entire forecast with highs each day in the low and
mid 80s. Normal highs for this time of year are around 90
degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 636 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Main aviation concern will be storms this morning and then again
tonight.

Large complex of storms that developed across northwest KS last
night are currently making their way through southeast KS. So
currently expecting KCNU to continue seeing some for the next
few hours before pushing east. Surface front is currently
located north of I-70 and will start pushing south this morning,
moving through central KS by 16z and KICT by 20-21z. Winds
behind the front will flip around to the north and northeast. A
few storms may try and develop along the front across southeast
KS this afternoon but have higher confidence that sct storms
will develop after 03z as the low level jet increases. KCNU will
have the best chance to see these storms.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ033-048>053-
067>069-082-083-092-093.
Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ070>072-094>096-
098>100.

&&

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...ADK/AMD/RBL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
352 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-220900-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
352 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
east central Kansas, south central Kansas and southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Storms will continue this morning across much of the area. Small
hail and 60 mph winds will be possible with the stronger storms. In
addition, the storms will produce very high rainfall rates that may
lead to flooding.

Additional storms will be possible this afternoon and evening,
mainly across southern and southeast Kansas. Hail up to quarter
size, 60 mph winds and heavy rainfall will be possible with the
stronger storms.

Several rivers across the area are expected to go into flood today
and tonight. See latest river flood warnings for additional details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Several rivers across the area are expected to go into flood over
the next few days. See latest river flood warnings for additional
details.

Storm chances will return for Monday night and will start
to increase for Tuesday night through the remainder of the work
week. Some strong to severe storms will be possible through this
period, along with heavy rain and flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict

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