Severe Thunderstorm Warning 314, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
550 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Numerous storms expected this evening through Sunday morning
  with severe storms and flooding likely.

- Additional round of storms likely late Sunday afternoon into Sunday
  night mainly in southeast and southern KS with severe storms
  and flooding possible.

- Below normal high temperatures are forecast for much of next
  week with highs in the 80s and periodic rain chances possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

An upper shortwave trough is tracking east across the Central Great
Basin towards the Central Rockies with lee troughing strengthening
over much of the Rockies. A surface low is in eastern Colorado with
a warm front extending across northern Kansas. There are ongoing
showers and storms in central Nebraska due to 850-700mb warm moist
advection. This activity is moving southeast making it possible to
clip our central counties late this afternoon. Another round of
storms is expected to develop this afternoon in eastern Colorado and
eastern Wyoming from upslope flow and convergence, resulting in
another round of storms impacting our area. These storms are
anticipated to move into western Nebraska and western Kansas and
grow upscale as the upper shortwave continues to move into the
Central Rockies. This round of storms would likely impact
central KS after about 9 PM. There is still uncertainty with how
far south and east this MCS tracks with some guidance
suggesting another MCS diving southeast out of Nebraska through
much of our area in the late overnight hours into Sunday
morning. The main threats continue to be damaging winds with
gusts up to 60-80 mph and potentially flooding concerns. Heavy
rainfall is likely given the moist airmass with PWATs
approaching maximum values for this time of year, increasing the
potential for high rainfall rates; however, if this system
remains progressive, it could reduce some widespread flooding. A
brief tornado and hail threat cannot be ruled out especially
this evening if storms develop out ahead of the MCS but the main
concern is damaging winds. By Sunday morning, activity is
expected to have shifted to eastern KS with storms progged to
continue moving east into Missouri by mid morning, though
chances may linger in southeast KS from low-level WAA.

A lull in storms is forecast for late Sunday morning through the
early afternoon before another round of storms is possible late
Sunday afternoon. There is some question as to where the outflow
boundary from overnight/Sunday morning convection will end up. Model
guidance suggests a boundary across southeast KS with convergence
along it, resulting in additional storm development mainly in
southeast and parts of southern KS. Assuming this is where the
boundary sets up, plenty of instability and wind shear are
anticipated making any storm that develops having the potential to
be severe with the primary hazards being damaging winds and large
hail. Storm chances will start to diminish Sunday night as storms
move south and east of the area. Additionally, its possible for some
of our southern most counties to approach Heat Advisory criteria if
this is where the boundary sets up, though given uncertainty at this
time decided not to issue one, though later forecast shifts can
reevaluate.

Continuing into next week, most of Monday looks to remain dry as the
front will be south of our area. Periodic rain chances look possible
for much of the week as the upper air pattern remains relatively
active as multiple shortwave troughs are progged to move across
the region. A shortwave trough is expected to move into the
Northern Plains late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Its
possible for rain chances to clip parts of our area but better
chances remain out of our area. Flow aloft transitions to
westerly/northwesterly over the Plains as ridging builds into
the western CONUS with embedded shortwaves anticipated to ride
the ridging. This will keep periodic shower and storm chances
possible through much of the week with higher chances likely in
the evenings into the overnight hours. For temperatures, highs
are forecast to be in the low to mid 80s through much of the
work week which is about 5-10 degrees below normal for this time
of year.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 548 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

High confidence that a few rounds of scattered to numerous
thunderstorms will track east-southeast through the region later
this evening through early to mid-morning Sunday. For now
included a mix of TEMPO and PROB30 groups to cover this threat.
Large hail, damaging straight-line winds, and very heavy
rainfall may accompany the strongest activity.

Another round of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms is
possible by late Sunday afternoon over southern Kansas. The ICT
and CNU TAF sites would have the highest chances for this
activity.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for KSZ033-048-049-
051>053.
Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Sunday through Sunday evening for
KSZ070>072.

&&

DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...ADK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
227 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-211930-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
227 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
east central Kansas, south central Kansas and southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A complex of storms is expected to track out of northwest Kansas
and southern Nebraska tonight into early Sunday morning, affecting
much of the area. 60 to 80 mph winds, ping pong ball size hail,
heavy rain and some flooding concerns will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Storms will linger Sunday morning across eastern Kansas with
damaging winds and flooding possible. Additional storms are
expected to develop Sunday afternoon and evening, especially across
southern Kansas. Large hail, damaging downburst winds and flooding
will be possible with the stronger storms.

Periodic storm chances will remain for Tuesday through Friday with
strong and severe storms possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated this afternoon or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict