Severe Thunderstorm Warning 155, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
133 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms capable of producing 2 inch diameter hail, 75
  mph wind gusts, and a brief tornado are possible this
  afternoon and evening, mainly between 2 PM and 9 PM MDT.

- Locations that received heavy rain during the past 24-hr are
  more prone to experience flash flooding, should additional
  heavy rain occur this afternoon.

- Severe storms capable of producing 2 inch diameter hail and 70
  mph wind gusts are possible during the afternoon and evening
  hours Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1208 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Today, a 500 mb low will create an 850 mb and surface low that will
sweep across the southern portions of the Northern Plains. This will
extend a cold front through the CWA, sparking off more storms in the
afternoon hours. Highs are expected to be near 80 in the
northeastern CWA, but near 90 in the southwestern CWA.

Convection looks to just north of Yuma and Dundy counties, and move
southeast. Additional convection will fire in off as a broken line
to the southwest. As of 18Z, there is a Cu field forming in this
area, which will become storms over the next couple of hours. Hail
up around in the 1-2 inch range will be the main threat early on,
but if a storm can really tap into the shear and CAPE, 3 inch hail
will be possible. The tornadic threat is fairly similar, a bigger
hazard early on. This does not look to be a great tornadic
environment as hodographs are a little too straight. Winds are a
threat through the whole event, but more so as the broken line grows
together. Most likely winds will be in the 60-70 MPH range, but
winds up to 80-85 MPH are possible. Convection looks to weaken
around 3Z, with lingering showers potentially lasting until after
6Z.

Lows tonight do look to be a bit cooler Sunday night behind the cold
front, likely dropping into the 50s. Fog and stratus are likely
again overnight.

Monday, the northwesterly flow aloft persists and sends another
shortwave across the Rockies and into the High Plains. Highs look to
warm into the mid 70s in the northeastern CWA and mid 80s in the
southwestern CWA. Convection looks to fire off the front range and
Palmer Divide around 21-23Z and move east into the area. These CAMs
are showing these storms decaying before they exit Colorado, but
looking at CAPE and shear, they may continue into Nebraska and
Kansas. Hail is the primary threat with these storms, up to 2
inches, and winds up to 60-70 MPH are possible. There is a low
tornado risk, too. Additional sub-severe convection may trail these
storms and linger into the overnight hours. The severe threat looks
to end around 3-5Z.

Lows tomorrow night look to cool into the 50s, maybe low 60s. Fog
and stratus may return again.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 128 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

***Tuesday-Wednesday***

A 500-mb trough looks to be moving across the Northern United States
Tuesday, with a modest 40-55 kt jet streak at its base. The trough
axis looks to be moving through the area throughout the day. At the
same time, GEFS 850-mb height mean-spread guidance suggests the
presence of a low in Colorado. Southerly flow from the low in
Colorado would meet northerly flow underneath the trough axis,
creating a convergence zone across the forecast region.
Thunderstorms may be possible with this setup. LREF guidance
suggests that up to 3000 J/kg of surface-based CAPE (a measure of
atmospheric instability) may be in place. In addition, GFS and EC
model soundings suggest that 0-6 km vertical shear around 40-50 kts
is reasonably possible due to the 500-mb jet streak. This may allow
thunderstorms to become severe, with primary hazards including high
wind and large hail. This pattern may linger into Wednesday, which
may continue to promote severe thunderstorms with similar
hazards. Confidence in severe weather occurring is highest on
Tuesday around 15-20%.

***Thursday-Sunday***

Ridging looks to begin moving in overhead sometime Thursday.
Shortwave troughs embedded in the ridge may allow thunderstorms to
stick around on Thursday and possibly Friday, though chances begin
to decrease dramatically after Thursday. The entire County Warning
Area (CWA) has a 50-70% chance of seeing greater than 0.1 inches of
precipitation from Thursday's activity based on NBM 24-hr
precipitation guidance. Whether or not these storms are allowed to
become severe depends on the positioning and strength of the 500-mb
jet. LREF 90th percentile guidance suggests that winds at 500-mb
could still reach 30-40 kts, though it appears likely that the jet
will be weaker on Thursday than that of Tuesday and Wednesday. If
this is the case, the severe potential could be a bit lower
Thursday. Confidence in severe weather occurring Thursday is down to
about 5-10%.

By Friday, all areas across the forecast region have a 1 in 3 chance
or less to experience greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation
according to NBM 24-hr precipitation guidance. This decreases to
less than 10% Saturday and Sunday. In addition, as troughing sets up
across the West Coast during the weekend, temperatures look to begin
warming again. Highs are forecast in the mid 80s to lower 90s on
Friday, and low to upper 90s on Saturday and Sunday. As this heating
occurs and moisture moves off to the east, dry conditions look to
set in. Forecast guidance suggests that portions of East-Central
Colorado may see relative humidities (RH) drop into the low to mid
teens Saturday and Sunday. Wind gusts may be allowed to reach the 25
to 30 mph range across this zone, which could implicate critical
fire weather as a concern. However, confidence in a Red Flag Warning
being needed either day is around 5% or less, as both RH values and
wind gusts are just meeting criteria for the hazard. Additionally,
precipitation over the next several days may help counter the
incoming dry conditions. Even so, this development will be something
to keep an eye on as we approach the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1117 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

The ceilings are slowing lifting and breaking across the region.
KMCK and KGLD are expected to return to VFR conditions by 20Z.
Winds look to be chaotic this afternoon, shifting from
southwesterly to easterly before more storms move in during the
afternoon hours. Once the convection clears, around 3Z, MVFR to
IFR ceilings return around 9Z and will persist until after
sunrise.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1117 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Over the next week, we are looking at near daily chances of
convection as PWATs range around 0.9-1.75 inch. We are also
expecting 0C level to be around 15,000 feet AGL, leading to deep
melting layers, promoting efficient rainfall producing storms.

Recent precipitation totals (preliminary) along a line from
Trenton, NE to Grinnell, KS range from 3-6 inches. Additionally,
areas in southern Rawlins and northern Thomas county range
around 2.5-5 inches. These locations will be at the highest risk
for additional flooding and flash flooding to occur this
afternoon and evening.

A Flood Watch has not been issued due to a lack of confidence
that tonight's storms will produce more than 1-1.5 inches of
rain. Guidance is also highlighting areas to the east of the
saturated locations, reducing the potential for compounding
flood risks. Current confidence in additional flash flooding
occurring this afternoon and evening is around 30-40%.

Through Friday, there are returning chances of precipitation
across the CWA. If storms keep passing over the same, saturated
areas, flooding becomes a reoccurring risk.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...CA
HYDROLOGY...CA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1254 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-221900-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne CO-Cheyenne KS-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-
Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-
Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1254 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026 /154 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued until 8 PM MT for the
entire Tri-State area. Storms capable of producing 2 inch diameter
hail, 75 mph wind gusts, and a brief tornado are possible this
afternoon and evening, mainly between 2 PM and 9 PM MDT.

Heavy rainfall is possible with the storms this afternoon and
evening. Locations that received heavy rainfall during the past 24
hours are more prone to experience flash flooding. Driving through
flooding roadways is dangerous.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Severe storms capable of producing 2 inch diameter hail and 70 mph
wind gusts are possible during the afternoon and evening hours
Monday through Wednesday.

There is an ongoing flash flooding threat through the week as
additional rounds of efficient rain producing storms move through
the
area.Driving through flooding roadways is dangerous.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
323 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     Hail             12 N Max                40.28N 101.40W
06/21/2026  M3.20 Inch       Dundy              NE   Trained Spotter

            Social Media report of pictured 3.2 inch
            hail measured with Calipers.

&&

DH