Tornado Warning 18, NWS Goodland, KS

236 
WWUS53 KGLD 210059
SVSGLD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
759 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

KSC179-210109-
/O.EXP.KGLD.TO.W.0018.000000T0000Z-260621T0100Z/
Sheridan KS-
759 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN SHERIDAN COUNTY WILL EXPIRE
AT 800 PM CDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However, small
hail and gusty winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for northwestern
and west central Kansas.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Goodland.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
Sheridan

&&

LAT...LON 3913 10064 3932 10065 3939 10048 3913 10027
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 344DEG 23KT 3904 10046 

$$

Alexander

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
609 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of storms later this evening looks to move in
  from the west-northwest.

- Added Gove and Sheridan County to the Blowing Dust warning.

- Blowing dust warning for Cheyenne, Rawlins, Sherman, Thomas,
  Wallace, and Logan counties through 7 PM MT/ 8 PM CT.

- Severe storms are possible across the entire area this
  afternoon and evening, mainly between 3-10 pm MDT. 2" hail,
  70 mph wind gusts, a few tornadoes, blowing dust and localized
  flash flooding are all possible.

- Additional storms may develop over portions of northwest KS
  and southwest NE late tonight and early Sunday morning. Large
  hail and strong winds are possible with overnight storms.

- Isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and
  damaging winds are possible, yet again, Sunday afternoon and
  evening, mainly between 2-9 PM MDT.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 539 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Models are coming into better agreement with another round of
storms moving in from the WNW late this evening/overnight as
another upper level short wave trough moves through. This will
exacerbate flooding concerns for areas that have already
received heavy rainfall.

Storms should exit the forecast area around sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1235 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Today, a low that's been sitting in the lee of the Rockies will move
across the Central Plains. Highs today are forecast to warm into the
mid 80s to mid 90s, with warmest locations in the southwestern CWA.
Thanks to that low moving east, the pressure gradient will increase,
allowing southerly winds to gust into the 25-35 kts range, but
occasional gusts up around 40 kts are expected.

In the mid-afternoon is when we expect to see the bulk of that low
enter the western CWA. This is when we expect to see convection
begin, likely around 21-23Z. Initially, cells look to cluster into a
broken line of convection on the west side of the Colorado border,
extending across the entire length of the CWA. Within 2-4 hours, it
looks to morph into a linear cluster or messy QLCS with additional
cells potentially forming ahead of the storm and being ingested in
northwestern Kansas. This increases the risk for merging
cells/tornadoes as it approaches and passes KS 25. This wave of
storms will be the main threat for this event with the peak severe
threat looks to be between 23-4Z. All hazards will be possible,
including hail, wind, blowing dust, flash flooding, and a tornado or
two. Most significant, realistic hazards look to include hail up to
or exceeding 3.5 inches, winds nearing 80-90 MPH, multiple
tornadoes, and a wall of dust created from outflow. This wave looks
to exit the CWA around 4-6Z.

There is a second wave of convection that guidance is really picking
up on now. This second wave looks to form near the Nebraska pan,
handle and move to the southeast. Most likely time this wave to
impact the CWA will be between 4-8Z. 60-70 MPH winds and hail up to
2 inches look to be the main threat from the second wave, as well as
flash flooding. The tornadic threat is low but not 0 for these
storms. The severe threat looks to be ending by 9Z, but lingering
showers and storms may persist until closer to sunrise. For more
information about the flooding threat, please see the hydro section
below.

Tonight, as convection and the low finally exit the CWA, winds will
weaken and become northerly. Lingering cloud cover will work to keep
lows in the mid 50s and mid 60s. There is a chance for patchy fog
Sunday morning across most of the CWA.

Sunday, another 500 mb low will create another 850 mb and surface
low that will sweep across the southern portions of the Northern
Plains. This will extend a cold front through the CWA, sparking off
more storms in the afternoon hours. Before that, highs are expected
to be nearly identical to Saturday's, maybe a few degrees cooler.
Convection looks to start in two locations. The northern section
looks to form just north of Yuma and Dundy counties, and move
southeast. The southern storms look to form around Flager and Wild
Horse and move east. 21-23Z looks to be the start time, and these
storms, if they do move in their respective directions, would
cluster together around the Colby/Hoxie area. Hail up around in the
1-2 inch range and winds up around 60-70 MPH are the primary
threats. Convection looks to weaken around 9Z again. Lows Sunday
night do look to be a bit cooler Sunday night behind the cold front,
likely dropping into the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 135 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

***Monday-Wednesday***

Thunderstorms are in the forecast Monday through Wednesday. A 500-mb
trough traversing the Northern United States and Southern Canada
along with a shortwave ridge over the forecast region looks to
produce a surface low pressure across portions of Colorado Monday. A
convergence zone would be favored to develop somewhere near
Colorado's eastern border, though its exact location and timing of
formation is in question. Most LREF solutions suggest that this
convergence zone will be associated with around 1200 J/kg of surface-
based CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability) or less, though
higher-end scenarios could see up to around 2000 J/kg. At the same
time a 500-mb jet streak at the base of the trough looks to be
strengthening during the afternoon and evening hours. GFS and EC
model soundings indicate that this development could support
0-6 km vertical wind shear of 35-60 kts along the convergence
boundary. Storms may be allowed to become severe under this
scenario. While all hazards may be possible with this setup,
this may need to be refined as we get closer to the event, as
thunderstorms in the short term may modify the environment
significantly before then.

The risk for thunderstorms continue Tuesday. 850-mb GEFS
guidance still shows a low across portions of Colorado, at the
same time that the 500-mb trough from Monday moves overhead.
This would produce another zone of convergence across the CWA
where northerly and southerly surface winds meet. In addition,
the 500-mb jet streak looks to remain in place. This pattern
may linger into Wednesday afternoon and evening as well.
Surface-based CAPE values may be allowed to get a little higher
on Tuesday and Wednesday than Monday, as portions of Eastern
Colorado and Northwest Kansas have greater than a 50% chance to
see over 1000 J/kg based on LREF guidance. Severe thunderstorms
would continue to be possible as vertical shear provided by the
upper-level jet remains in place. For each day Monday through
Wednesday, confidence is around 10-15% in severe thunderstorms
occurring.

***Thursday-Saturday***

GEFS and EC 500-mb height mean-spread guidance is consistent with
ridging moving in overhead Thursday and Friday. This could promote
warmer temperatures going into the weekend. Highs are currently in
the mid 70s to lower 80s Thursday, lower to upper 80s on Friday, and
lower to mid 90s on Saturday. Thunderstorm potential may still
continue Thursday and Friday, though is a lot more uncertain than
Monday through Wednesday. If and when thunderstorms occur is
contingent on the presence and timing of upper-level shortwave
troughs embedded in the ridge. GFS and EC deterministic guidance
does show that these features may be present. Confidence is
increasing in the presence of these shortwaves on Thursday, as NBM
24-hr precipitation guidance shows that most of the area has a 50-
70% chance of seeing greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation.
This confidence decreases Friday, as the same guidance shows at
best a 1 in 3 chance for greater than 0.1 inches of
precipitation across nearly the entire area. The thunderstorm
risk appears to diminish almost entirely by Saturday as ridging
takes full affect. Forecast guidance does indicate relative
humidities dropping into the teens in portions of Eastern
Colorado Saturday afternoon. As such, the potential development
of critical fire weather conditions on Saturday is something to
keep an eye on as we approach next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 605 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

KGLD will continue to be impacted by ongoing thunderstorms
through about 03Z. Several outflow boundaries are tracking
toward KGLD which may cause winds to shift multiple times before
the main cluster of storms moves through and shifts winds to
the west. There is increasing confidence that another round of
showers and storms will move through overnight, however, at this
time these storms are not expected to be severe. A period of
IFR cigs is expected behind this second round of precipitation
during the early to mid morning hours (11-15Z) before lifting.
Sunday afternoon another round of storms is expected to develop
after 22Z.

KMCK strongest cluster of thunderstorms has begun to dive south
of KMCK which should limit the severe threat over the next
several hours, however, a few new cells may yet develop in far
southwest NE through about 03Z. There is also increasing
confidence that another round of showers and storms will move
through overnight (05-09Z), however, at this time these storms
are not expected to be severe. A period of IFR and near minimum
cigs are expected behind this second round of precipitation
during the early to mid morning hours (09-15Z) before lifting.
Sunday afternoon another round of storms is expected to develop
after 22Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1235 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Over the next week, we are looking at near daily chances of
convection as PWATs range around 0.9-1.75 inch. We are also
expecting 0C level to be around 15,000 feet AGL, leading to deep
melting layers, promoting efficient rainfall producing storms.

Today is the most aggressive day coming up, two waves of storms are
possible. The first wave is expected to quickly move through the
CWA, but as it moves east of U.S. 83, back-building convection may
lead to training storms. This would likely occur around 3-6Z, ahead
of the second wave. The second wave has a 40% chance of being
oriented along it's direction of travel, making it a training storm
system. Timing for this threat would be around 5-9Z. Each of these
two threats could produce a swath of 1.5-3 inches of rain, but if
they overlap, 3-5 inches of rain may accumulate. Most likely area to
see these high precipitation amounts will be east of a line from
Trenton, NE to Oakley, KS.

A Flood Watch has not been issued due to a lack of confidence for
location of the highest rainfall amounts. One may be issued later if
a specific location seems to be at more of a risk.

Sunday, additional high precipitation storms are forecast to move
through the area. By themselves, they pose little flooding threat,
but if they move over an already saturated area, the flooding risk
returns.

Through Friday, there are returning chances of precipitation across
the CWA. Similar to Sunday, if storms keep passing over the same,
saturated area, flooding becomes a reoccurring risk.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Blowing Dust Warning until 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ this evening
     for KSZ001-002-013>015-027>029.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...WFO LSX
HYDROLOGY...CA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
547 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-220000-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne CO-Cheyenne KS-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-
Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-
Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
547 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026 /647 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

A tornado watch is in effect for counties along and north of a
Cheyenne Wells, CO to Russell Springs and Gove, KS line through 9 PM
MDT or 10 PM CDT. A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect through 9
PM MDT or 10 PM CDT for Greeley and Wichita counties. Severe storms
are forecast across the entire area this afternoon and evening. 2
inch hail, 70 mph wind gusts, a few tornadoes, blowing dust and
flash flooding are all possible. These storms may pose a significant
risk to life and property. If traveling, be prepared for dramatic
changes in wind speed and rapid reductions in visibility near any
thunderstorms.

A blowing dust warning is in effect until 7 PM MDT or 8 PM CDT for
Cheyenne, Rawlins, Sherman, Thomas, Wallace, Logan, Sheridan, and
Gove counties. Narrow plumes of near zero visibility have been
reported in the warning area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Severe storms may return Sunday and Monday afternoons. 1 inch hail
and 60 MPH winds are the primary hazards from these storms, which
pose a risk for life and property.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

JTL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
559 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     9 WSW Winona            39.00N 101.39W
06/20/2026  M80 MPH          Logan              KS   Mesonet

            Mesonet station UP840 9.0 W Winona (UPR).

&&

KAK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
608 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     9 N Page City           39.21N 101.13W
06/20/2026  M79 MPH          Thomas             KS   Mesonet

            AWN; Summers646.

&&

CLD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
609 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     Hail             3 N Seguin              39.38N 100.59W
06/20/2026  M2.75 Inch       Sheridan           KS   Public

            Report from mPING: Baseball (2.75 in.).

&&

KAK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
610 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0609 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 SW Grinnell           39.11N 100.65W
06/20/2026  E70 MPH          Gove               KS   Storm Chaser

            Spotter network report of 65-70 mph inflow
            winds.

&&

KAK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
611 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0604 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 W Gove                38.96N 100.55W
06/20/2026  E70 MPH          Gove               KS   Public

            Report via Text Line.

&&

DH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
614 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0603 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NNE Goodland          39.37N 101.70W
06/20/2026                   Sherman            KS   Official NWS Obs

            Healthy tree had side branch split off at
            base.

&&

KAK