Tornado Warning 14, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
629 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 620 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

- Intense rain rates and compounding effects from multiple rounds
  of storms will result in a dangerous flash flooding threat
  through Thursday.

- Considerable to locally catastrophic impacts from flash flooding
  are likely for portions of the U.S. 90 corridor west of San
  Antonio, including the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande.

- Pockets of an additional 10 to 20 inches of rain are possible
  within the highest risk areas, with broader totals of 2 to 6
  inches.

- Potential for significant downstream river flooding in the
  Pecos, Rio Grande, Nueces, Frio, Medina, and San Antonio river
  basins.

- Heed instructions from local officials and be prepared to seek
  higher ground if necessary.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

A significant threat of torrential rainfall, significant flash
flooding, and downstream river rises continues tonight. There is a
High Risk (the highest risk category, Level 4 of 4) of heavy rain
capable of causing flash flooding along the southern Edwards Plateau
and throughout the Highway 90 corridor west of San Antonio.
Considerable to locally catastrophic flash flooding is possible for
these areas. Significant downstream river flooding to Moderate or
Major flood stages will be possible. A Flood Watch highlighting the
potential for life-threatening flash flooding remains in effect from
now into Thursday evening for the southern Edwards Plateau, Rio
Grande, Winter Garden region, Hill Country, and I-35 corridor. While
the High Risk region delineates the area of greatest concern, heavy
rain will be capable of causing flash flooding anywhere within the
broader watch area.

As of noon Tuesday, up to a foot of rain has fallen in portions of
these areas, with the heaviest rains so far impacting Bandera,
Medina, and Uvalde counties. On top of these already considerable
amounts, another round torrential downpours is expected tonight. The
most persistent storms may produce over a foot of rain tonight into
Wednesday (between 10 and 20 inches) with extreme rain rates
exceeding 3 or 4 inches per hour at times. The southern Edwards
Plateau, western Hill Country, and Rio Grande Plains are at greatest
risk for significant additional rainfall. This could occur over the
same areas hardest hit from rains last night and this morning.

Rivers, creeks, and arroyos can rise suddenly and rapidly! Locally
dry conditions near creeks and rivers should not be treated as a
guarantee of your safety! Heed warnings, instructions from local and
county officials, and avoid unnecessary travel. Flash flooding can
be impossible to spot at night. Make sure you have multiple reliable
ways to receive warnings. If you are in a low-lying location or near
a stream, have a plan and have a route to reach higher ground if
needed.

This morning's upper-air sounding at Del Rio reported a precipitable
water of 2.26 inches, above the 99th percentile of atmospheric
moisture for mid-July. We expect similarly anomalous moisture to
continue to be available for new storms to draw in. An stationary
front at the surface and aloft is draped across the area,
concentrating moisture over our region. A mesoscale convective
vortex (MCV) is evident in radar imagery over the southern Edwards
Plateau and Rio Grande Plains, embedded within this area of
elevated moisture. This will be a primary trigger for heavy rain.
Additional rainfall is also ongoing throughout Central Texas
accompanying the broader band of convergence. While scattering and
somewhat lowered intensity of rains is anticipated and ongoing
this afternoon over South-Central Texas as low-level winds weaken,
the low-level jet is expected to intensify this evening with the
HREF mean guidance showing winds at 850mb becoming 10-15 kt
stronger than this morning. This will likely reinvigorate and
concentrate torrential rainbands around the MCV tonight, and this
looks to be the primary mechanism for flooding rainfall concerns.
The heaviest rainfall will likely be near the center and along the
south to eastern flanks of the disturbance. Most of the high-
resolution models position the center of MCV near the Rio Grande
tonight. This places the southern Edwards Plateau, western Hill
Country, and Rio Grande Plains at greatest risk for exceptional
amounts of additional rainfall capable of causing significant
flash flooding.

Intense bands of slow-moving torrential rainfall may persist late
tonight through Wednesday morning. Some decrease in activity is
possible Wednesday afternoon, with more spread out/lighter rainfall
consistent with the usual diurnal behavior of MCVs. However,
regional models show a continued zone of high humidity in the low
and mid-levels, and the MCV or related areas of concentrated
vorticity are will likely be present heading into Wednesday night.
The low-level jet is also forecast to be even stronger Wednesday
night... around 30-35 kt from the Rio Grande Plains to Edwards
Plateau. This means that Wednesday evening/night into Thursday
morning will likely be another timeframe for torrential rainfall
over these areas. The precise area of heaviest rain will depend on
where the MCV is located and orientation of the LLJ. Most models
show some westward shift as the MCV slides slightly north and west
in response to the strong ridging over the northern tier of
CONUS. Regardless, there could be considerable overlap with areas
already impacted by prolific rainfall, resulting in a heightened
risk for considerable to locally catastrophic flash flooding. The
greatest threat Wednesday into Thursday morning will again be
along the Highway 90 corridor west of San Antonio and southern
Edwards Plateau, with a round of extreme rain amounts possible.
This will likely add to elevated streamflows and prolong or
exacerbate downstream rises and impacts in rivers. The currently
active Flood Watch extends into Thursday evening. Total rainfall
amounts from this week's heavy rain event may end up amounting to
over half of the normal annual rain total for some locations.

Conditions can change drastically and suddenly. Have multiple
reliable ways to recieve warnings and information from local/state
officials both in the daytime and at night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

The low/mid-level steering winds Thursday and Friday will be
directed towards the northwest. This will favor the MCV accompanying
the heaviest rains also moving towards the north or northwest. While
this implies that the rainfall later this week may not be as
concentrated as Tuesday/Wednesday, a strong plume of tropical
moisture is still forecast to trail the outgoing MCV, persisting
across South-Central Texas. Strong integrated vapor transport across
the Rio Grande Plains and Edward Plateau will continue to support
chances for heavy rainfall, especially at night when the low-level
jet is most intense. A Level 3 of 4 (Moderate) Risk for excessive
rainfall capable of causing flash flooding is highlighted by the
Weather Prediction Center for Thursday to Friday morning for the
southern Edwards Plateau, including the Del Rio, Rocksprings, and
Brackettville areas.

There are promising signals for an end to this heavy rain event
towards the end of the week. Surface high pressure is expected to
expand over the southeastern US into the Gulf. This will help to
smear out the remaining vorticity over Texas and reduce moisture
convergence aloft. Rain chances are forecast to generally decrease
during the day Friday into the weekend, but we encourage staying up
to date with the forecast and staying vigilant as the remaining
moisture could still support isolated rains over saturated soils.

The weekend looks drier for most of the area. The current long-range
ensembles and national model blend is also generally dry for early
next week, though specifics will depend on whether the dominant
ridge over the northern US will expand or drop south enough to
suppress activity over our area. For now, the model consensus favors
this depiction.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

A complex of showers and thunderstorms is beginning to redevelop
this evening near KSAT and vicinity. Expect a deterioration of
conditions tonight both due to TS and increasing moisture moving
into the region, resulting in lowered CIGs and lowered VSBYs with
IFR or even briefly LIFR conditions possible. TSRA may impact all
TAF sites at some point been now and 18Z, though most of the
recent models cluster the most intense activity near and between
KSAT and KDRT. Some improvement of CIGs to VFR/MVFR is possible
tomorrow afternoon, but this forecast is uncertain and heavily
dependent on the organization of storms in the daytime.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              72  84  72  87 /  40  60  70  70
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  72  84  72  87 /  40  60  70  70
New Braunfels Muni Airport     72  83  72  87 /  50  70  70  80
Burnet Muni Airport            70  82  70  84 /  30  50  60  60
Del Rio Intl Airport           72  84  71  85 /  80  90 100  90
Georgetown Muni Airport        71  85  71  87 /  30  50  60  60
Hondo Muni Airport             71  82  70  84 /  60  80  70  80
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  84  72  87 /  50  60  60  80
La Grange - Fayette Regional   73  85  73  88 /  40  40  30  50
San Antonio Intl Airport       73  83  73  85 /  60  80  70  80
Stinson Muni Airport           74  83  73  86 /  50  80  70  70

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday evening for TXZ171>173-183>192-
202>207-217>219-228.

&&

SHORT TERM...Tran
LONG TERM....Tran
AVIATION...Tran

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
126 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 PM     Flash Flood      1 ENE Uvalde            29.22N 99.77W
07/14/2026                   Uvalde             TX   Public

            Social media videos and reports of flooding
            at Uvalde Plaza. Hwy 90 closed due to the
            flooding at this location.

&&

CVP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
128 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     Flash Flood      1 E Uvalde              29.22N 99.76W
07/14/2026                   Uvalde             TX   Cocorahs

            Garner Field Rd at Taylor Slough closed due
            to flooding.

&&

CVP

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Summary
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
328 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 PM     Flash Flood      1 ENE Uvalde            29.22N 99.77W
07/14/2026                   Uvalde             TX   Public

            Social media videos and reports of flooding
            at Uvalde Plaza. Hwy 90 closed due to the
            flooding at this location.

0110 PM     Flash Flood      1 E Uvalde              29.22N 99.76W
07/14/2026                   Uvalde             TX   Cocorahs

            Garner Field Rd at Taylor Slough closed due
            to flooding.

0742 AM     Flash Flood      Sabinal                 29.32N 99.47W
07/14/2026                   Uvalde             TX   Emergency Mngr

            All roads in D’Hanis on southside of Hwy
            90 are flooded.

0748 AM     Flash Flood      1 WSW Knippa            29.29N 99.65W
07/14/2026                   Uvalde             TX   Emergency Mngr

            Water is reported over U.S. 90 near Knippa.

0749 AM     Flash Flood      2 NNW Sabinal           29.34N 99.48W
07/14/2026                   Uvalde             TX   Emergency Mngr

            One high water rescue reported on TX 127. 7
            of rainfall has occurred in 4 hours near
            this spot.

0230 AM     Flash Flood      10 SSE Hill Country Sta 29.50N 99.11W
07/14/2026                   Medina             TX   Public

            TX 173 impassable at this location due to
            flooding.

0230 AM     Flash Flood      10 SSE Hill Country Sta 29.50N 99.11W
07/14/2026                   Medina             TX   Public

            TX 173 impassable at this location due to
            flooding.

0744 AM     Flash Flood      1 W DHanis             29.33N 99.29W
07/14/2026                   Medina             TX   Emergency Mngr

            CR 429 at brickyard in D’Hanis has water
            over the bridge. Seco and Parker Creeks are
            flooded in D’Hanis.

0746 AM     Flash Flood      8 ENE Hondo             29.39N 99.02W
07/14/2026                   Medina             TX   Emergency Mngr

            Numerous County Roads are flooded across
            Medina County. Four high water rescues have
            been reported so far.

0902 AM     Flash Flood      DHanis                 29.33N 99.28W
07/14/2026                   Medina             TX   Storm Chaser

            Storm chaser drone showed widespread
            flooding in the town of DHanis.

0830 PM     Flash Flood      2 WNW Kerrville         30.06N 99.18W
07/13/2026                   Kerr               TX   Law Enforcement

            Barricades are in place on Third and Fourth
            Streets and Goat Creek Road at Junction
            Highway due to high water over the road.
            Coronado Drive at Junction Hwy has about two
            feet of water on road.

0918 PM     Flash Flood      1 SW Doss               30.43N 99.15W
07/13/2026                   Gillespie          TX   Emergency Mngr

            Flooded roadway reported with 2 feet of
            water.

0640 AM     Flash Flood      6 SSW Smithson Valley   29.73N 98.36W
07/14/2026                   Bexar              TX   NWS Employee

            Farm to Market Road 1863 at Cibolo Creek is
            flooded and impassable.

1011 PM     Flash Flood      5 NW Pipe Creek         29.77N 98.99W
07/13/2026                   Bandera            TX   Public

            Road closed due to water over road at the
            low water crossing at Old School Rd and
            Privilege Creek Rd.

&&

CVP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
453 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0744 AM     Flash Flood      1 W D'Hanis             29.33N 99.29W
07/14/2026                   Medina             TX   Emergency Mngr

            Corrects previous flash flood report from 1
            W DHanis. CR 429 at brickyard in DHanis has
            water over the bridge. Seco and Parker
            Creeks are flooded in DHanis.

&&

HT