River Flood Warning 16, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
614 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 601 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

- There is a potential for life threatening flooding across parts of
South Central Texas this evening through Thursday evening

- Flood Watch remains in effect for a good portion of South Central
Texas through Thursday evening

- Stay weather aware and check for updates as we go through this wet
and significant rain pattern

- Dry weather returns for the upcoming weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 126 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Numerous Flood Advisories and Warnings are currently ongoing across
the area this evening. Expect this trend to continue overnight as we
remain in an extremely moist airmass. Recent Upper air analysis shows
a strong ridge over most of the western half of the country with a
closed high over the northern plains into the upper midwest. The
500mb flow over Texas however is from the west while the low level
flow continues to be from the southeast across South-Central Texas.
With the upper ridge over the northern plains, a trough is now
located over our area helping to ignite and fuel convection over the
area.

Rain chances will continue overnight and only increase during
the afternoon with PW values already exceeding over two inches over
most of the area. Along with these high values, weak wind shear will
lead to slow moving and erratic storm motion that could eventually
lead to training storms. This will continue to lead to increasing
chances for locally heavy rainfall and possible flooding to continue
into Wednesday. Rainfall totals for the short term period will range
from a widespread 2-6 inches with isolated higher amounts possible
upwards of 10 to 15 inches somewhere in the watch area particularly
over the Rio Grande Plains, southern Edwards Plateau and western
Hill Country. This is likely to be a multi rainfall event with
several rounds of heavy rainfall during the short term period and
continuing into the Thursday time frame. A Flood Watch remains in
effect until 7pm Thursday evening. There is a potential for life
threatening flooding somewhere in the watch area and we urge
residents and visitors of South Central Texas to stay weather aware
and check on weather updates.

That being said, WPC has included most of our CWA in the Level 2 of
4 (Slight) risk for excessive rainfall for our entire area with a
level 3 of 4 (Moderate) risk for the southern Edwards Plateau into
Bexar County(including the San Antonio metro) and parts of the
western Hill Country for Today. Many of the same areas are in a
level 3 of 4 (Moderate) risk for excessive rainfall again for
Wednesday and continuing into Thursday.

Temperatures will be several degrees below normal through the period
due to the extensive cloud cover and rain cooled areas. Today's
and Wednesday's highs will be cooler with most of the CWA not
reaching 90 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 126 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Our wet pattern continues into Thursday with the mid to upper level
disturbance over west Texas staying put, in addition, pulses of
energy will be coming in from the southwest flow aloft. PW will
remain unusually high, however locally heavy rain will continue to
remain possible. WPC keeps the western half of our area (Rio Grande
Plains and southern Edwards Plateau) in a level 2 of 4 (slight) risk
for excessive rainfall with a level 1 of 4(marginal) risk across the
western Hill Country and parts of Bexar county. Depending on how
this activity evolves will determine if we continue to see elevated
flooding potential continuing into the first half of Friday.

By late week the upper pattern should start to readjust, however we
will likely still be somewhat unstable and low rain chances will
continue at least out in our western areas until Friday. The weekend
looks to be drier at this point. With all of the cloudiness and
rain, high temperatures will continue to remain cooler with highs
not reaching 90 over most of the area and staying below normal
through Friday. We should see temperatures moderate as we get to
Saturday with the return of 90s and more seasonable temps expected
into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Convective trends are filling in over the I-35 sites and have made
adjustments to go with TEMPO TSRA for the next few hours. Cigs
have also been lowered into IFR with TSRA. We will keep the PROB30
groups along I-35 for the possibility of another round of
afternoon storms as daytime heating helps destabilize the
atmosphere. Out west at DRT, we have made some minor adjustments
to delay the onset of TSRA, but radar trends and models still show
good chances for convection here as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              85  73  85  72 /  90  40  70  60
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  85  73  85  72 /  90  40  80  60
New Braunfels Muni Airport     86  73  84  72 /  80  40  80  70
Burnet Muni Airport            83  71  84  70 /  90  40  70  60
Del Rio Intl Airport           84  71  84  71 /  90  70  80  90
Georgetown Muni Airport        84  71  86  71 /  90  40  70  50
Hondo Muni Airport             84  72  82  70 /  90  60  80  80
San Marcos Muni Airport        86  73  84  72 /  80  40  80  60
La Grange - Fayette Regional   84  74  85  74 /  90  20  60  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       85  74  83  73 /  80  50  80  70
Stinson Muni Airport           86  74  84  73 /  80  40  80  70

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday evening for TXZ171>173-183>192-
202>206-217>219-228.

&&

SHORT TERM...CJM
LONG TERM....CJM
AVIATION...Platt

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
433 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 AM     Flash Flood      10 SSE Hill Country Sta 29.50N 99.11W
07/14/2026                   Medina             TX   Public

            TX 173 impassable at this location due to
            flooding.

&&

MB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
709 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 AM     Flash Flood      6 SSW Smithson Valley   29.73N 98.36W
07/14/2026                   Bexar              TX   NWS Employee

            Farm to Market Road 1863 at Cibolo Creek is
            flooded and impassable.

&&

emp

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
747 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0746 AM     Flash Flood      8 ENE Hondo             29.39N 99.02W
07/14/2026                   Medina             TX   Emergency Mngr

            Numerous County Roads are flooded across
            Medina County. Four high water rescues have
            been reported so far.

&&

JR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
748 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0748 AM     Flash Flood      1 WSW Knippa            29.29N 99.65W
07/14/2026                   Uvalde             TX   Emergency Mngr

            Water is reported over U.S. 90 near Knippa.

&&

JR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
750 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0749 AM     Flash Flood      2 NNW Sabinal           29.34N 99.48W
07/14/2026                   Uvalde             TX   Emergency Mngr

            One high water rescue reported on TX 127. 7
            of rainfall has occurred in 4 hours near
            this spot.

&&

JR

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