Severe Thunderstorm Warning 293, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
655 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Significant threat for severe weather across NW Missouri this
  evening with destructive hail, damaging winds and tornadoes.
  This threat will transition to a damaging winds and QLCS
  tornadoes as scattered storms develop into a line and build
  southeast.

* Substantial flood threat tonight across the region with
  rainfall rates expected to exceed 2"/hr. Flood watch in effect
  tonight into Tuesday morning. Additional rainfall amounts of
  1.5-3+" with pockets exceeding 5".

* Cooler and drier conditions develop on Tuesday and continue into
  Wednesday.

* Rainfall chances return to the region Thursday through the end
  of the weeekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Mature trailing stratiform MCS worked through the area overnight
leading to a widespread 1-2 inches of rain across the region.  Saw
MCS backbuild across central Missouri through the late morning,
keeping temperatures quite cool through mid-day. Have seen signs of
gravity waves emanating from the tail end of the the MCS, spreading
to the north-northwest.

Have started to see some partial-rapid clearing across eastern KS
into western Missouri leading to nice warming- roughly west of I-35.
Pseudo warm front/outflow boundary is poised just south of the
forecast area across central Missouri. This boundary may try to lift
north through the late afternoon hours.  If that occurs, could see
an isolated storms develop south of a line from Butler through
Clinton leading to large hail/gusty winds. Expect surface
temperatures to continue to warm through the afternoon hours into
the upper 70s to 80s, leading to rapidly increasing instability.  By
late this afternoon, expect moderate to extreme instability with SB
CAPE values of 4000-5000 J/kg roughly along and west of the I-35
corridor.

Surface low pressure centered near Salina KS is expected to lift
northeast this afternoon to southwest Iowa into the evening.
Discreet supercells have already begun developing across central
into northern KS, building east in time in what is a very volatile
environment.  0-6 km shear is in the 40-50 knot range across eastern
KS should easily support supercells, with the potential for very
large hail and tornadoes.  Expect supercells to remain discreet
building into Northwest Missouri in the early evening hours, capable
of producing very large hail, damaging winds and the potential for
strong tornadoes.  As the severe weather event evolves, expect the
supercells to evolve into a squalline and build southeast in time.
Expect severe threat to transition towards damaging winds, but could
still see QLCS tornadoes with embedded supercells along the line.

Training storms, along with precipitable water values of nearly two
inches and deep warm cloud depths will lead to efficient rainfall.
CAMs have been fairly consistent with another 1.5-3+" of rainfall
across the region tonight, with pockets of 5+". HREF and REFs
probabilities for 2"/hr rainfall rates are approaching 50%. Flash
flood guidance across the area is low with the recent rains,
generally running from 1-2.5"/6 hour period. Collaborated with WPC
and surrounding offices to raise excessive rainfall outlook to
moderate across most of the area. Cams suggest storms may linger
Tuesday morning as the surface boundary moves slowly through the
area.  Have extended the flood watch through 18Z south of the
Missouri River.

Much cooler conditions are expected midweek behind the front with
high in the 60s and lows in the 40s.  A developing trough late week
across the Northern Plains could bring additional instability
showers and storms to the region as early as Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 650 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

SE winds will continue with gusts up to 30 mph through the early
evening hours, then winds shift SW between 01z-03z and remaining
gusty. A line of severe thunderstorms will impact STJ between
01z-03z tonight, moving through the KC metro terminals likely
between 02z-05z tonight. Severe wind gusts will be possible
along the leading edge of the severe thunderstorm line, with
periods of moderate to heavy rain reducing visibility
significantly. Stratiform rain with isolated lightning strikes
will linger behind the main convective line into early tomorrow
morning. There is a potential (30-50%) terminals will see
reduced visibility around 4SM and BR between 10z-14z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for MOZ020>022-028>033-
     037>040-043>046-053-054.
     Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for MOZ001>007-011>016-023-
     024.
KS...Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

&&

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...WFO EAX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
0509 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-191009-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
0509 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to https://weather.gov/media/eax/DssPacket.pdf for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms continue across the region this
  morning, with locally moderate to heavy rainfall possible.

- Severe thunderstorms are likely late afternoon into late
  tonight.

- Far NW Missouri and NE Kansas will be under the greatest
  threat for all severe hazards by late afternoon and early
  evening.

- Storms should congeal into a line of thunderstorms by this
  evening, and move east southeast through the region late
  tonight. Once this occurs, damaging wind gusts should become
  the primary hazard, but a few brief tornadoes may be possible.

- Moderate to heavy rain will be possible again with the storms
  tonight. A flood watch is in effect through almost the entire
  CWA through 7 AM Tuesday.

- Cooler temperatures arrive for Tuesday through Thursday before
  heating up once more by this weekend.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
930 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0926 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 W Shawnee             39.01N 94.85W
05/18/2026  E70 MPH          Johnson            KS   Public

            EM relayed spotter report of 70 mph winds.

&&

OM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
931 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0924 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Gilman City             40.14N 93.87W
05/18/2026  E70 MPH          Harrison           MO   Emergency Mngr

            EM relayed public report of 70 mph wind
            gust.

&&

OM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
932 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0929 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 SW Kansas City        39.09N 94.59W
05/18/2026  M65 MPH          Jackson            MO   Mesonet

            PWS measured 65 mph wind gust.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
934 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 ESE Kansas City       39.10N 94.57W
05/18/2026  M59 MPH          Jackson            MO   Mesonet

            PWS measured 59 mph wind gust.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
940 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0936 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 SE Kearney            39.36N 94.35W
05/18/2026  M63 MPH          Clay               MO   Law Enforcement

            Law enforcement measured a 63 mph wind gust.

&&