River Flood Warning 137, NWS Kansas City, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1256 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for severe weather this
  afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the
  primary concerns, but can't rule out the possibility of
  tornadoes.

* Enhanced Risk for severe weather again Thursday afternoon and
  early evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and a couple
  tornadoes are possible.

* Another round of precipitation this weekend, then much cooler
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

The complex of thunderstorms tracking east across KS late last
evening has dissipated. Additional scattered showers across NE
associated with a weak shortwave trough may build southeast this
morning to northwest MO before growing into another thunderstorm
complex across southern IA. No severe weather is expected with
that round. The main concern today will be as a surface cold
front sinks south into northern MO and northeast KS. Steep mid
level lapse rates around 7.5 C/km will overspread a hot and
very moist airmass characterized by pwats around 2 inches this
afternoon. Any capping will break by mid afternoon (3-4 PM) and
scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop along and just
ahead of the cold front. SBCAPE in excess of 3500 J/kg and deep
layer shear of 35-40 kts will be supportive large hail and
damaging winds. Very large hail is possible if storms can
remain somewhat discrete. Most of the CAMs tend to develop a
broken line of storms within an hour or two of initiation which
would limit the high end hail potential. Another concern is
heavy rainfall. MBE velocities are southeast 20-30 kts and CAMs
remain progressive. However, 1- and 3-hour flash flood guidance
are 1 and 1.5 inches, respectively. Given the moisture-laden
airmass in place and the efficient rain producing storms,
considered a Flood Watch. Decided to hold off for now given the
progressive nature of the activity, but if there are increasing
signs of renewed development along the stalling front this
evening and tonight then it will need to be reconsidered. This
is a possibility given the development of a 50 kt LLJ across
eastern KS. The limiting factor will be a stabilizing atmosphere
below 10 kft. Highs today will reach the mid 80s to lower 90s
with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. Should fall short of
Heat Advisory criteria of 105+ heat indices.

An area of low pressure over central KS early Thursday morning
will track northeast across IA to southern WI by afternoon. A
complex of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early morning
across IA and possibly northern MO. The passage of the low will
accelerate the cold front's southern progression throughout the
day. Thunderstorms will redevelop along it Thursday afternoon
from eastern KS through northern MO. Similar to today's threats,
large hail and damaging winds are most probable, with a tornado
or two also possible. Activity should be exiting to the
southeast by Thursday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

High pressure will build south Thursday night and Friday. A
much cooler and drier airmass will advance in, but will be
short-lived. Return flow begins Friday night and by Saturday dew
points return to the 70s. PoPs increase through the day Saturday
as a warm front approaches from the west, then maximizes
Saturday night as another cold front sags south. Pwats north of
1.75 inches and widespread showers and storms will keep soils
saturated. There is a risk of flash flooding, especially if
repeated thunderstorms impact a particular area.

Cooler air will return for the rest of the period with low
chances for showers and storms thanks to the passage of several
short waves into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Main concern with TAFs for the next 24 hours is the chances for
storms late this afternoon and evening. Storms are expected to
develop quickly in northeast Kansas and northern Missouri
between 18z and 21z, slowly propagating southeastward for the
rest of the afternoon into the evening. STJ will likely be
affected by storms during the late afternoon, with torrential
rainfall and potential for severe weather. Things become more
uncertain for MCI, with most models keeping convection just to
the north before dissipating it during the evening. However,
given the proximity of the storms to the northern KC metro and
the favorable environment, do expect at least a period in which
thunderstorms affect the terminal, most likely from 23z to 03z.
Kept a TEMPO group at MCI for now. At MKC and IXD, chances for
storms are lower, so PROB30 groups were included here for now.
Outside of storms, VFR conditions are expected with south to
southwest winds of 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30+ kt this
afternoon and evening and once again by late Thursday morning.
Winds should diminish to around 10 kt overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MOZ002>008-011>017-
     020>025.
KS...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KSZ025-102.

&&

SHORT TERM...Borghoff
LONG TERM...Borghoff
AVIATION...CMS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
0505 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-111005-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
0505 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

Please go to https://weather.gov/media/eax/DssPacket.pdf for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please go to https://weather.gov/media/eax/DssPacket.pdf for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for severe weather this
  afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the
  primary concerns, but can't rule out the possibility of
  tornadoes.

* Enhanced Risk for severe weather again Thursday afternoon and
  early evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and a couple
  tornadoes are possible.

* Another round of precipitation this weekend, then much cooler
  next week.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1134 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

MOZ001-002-101700-
Atchison MO-Nodaway MO-
1134 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ATCHISON AND
NORTHWESTERN NODAWAY COUNTIES THROUGH NOON CDT...

At 1134 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fairfax, or 9 miles southeast of Tarkio, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fairfax, Burlington Junction, Hopkins, Braddyville, Clearmont, Elmo,
Pickering, and Quitman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4057 9463 4026 9518 4026 9538 4033 9545
      4058 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 1634Z 230DEG 33KT 4032 9530

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CMS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
1257 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1253 PM     Flood            2 N Excello             39.67N 92.47W
06/10/2026                   Macon              MO   Public

            Report from mPING: Street/road flooding;
            Street/road closed; Vehicles stranded.

&&

CMS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
111 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1129 AM     Flood            1 S Macon               39.73N 92.47W
06/10/2026                   Macon              MO   Public

            Report from mPING: River/Creek overflowing;
            Cropland/Yard/Basement Flooding.

&&

CMS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
112 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0109 PM     Flood            1 NW Moberly            39.44N 92.44W
06/10/2026                   Randolph           MO   Public

            Report from mPING: River/Creek overflowing;
            Cropland/Yard/Basement Flooding.

&&

CMS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
123 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0119 PM     Flash Flood      2 E Cairo               39.51N 92.41W
06/10/2026                   Randolph           MO   Public

            Report from mPING: Street/road flooding;
            Street/road closed; Vehicles stranded.

&&

CMS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant HIll MO
140 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     Flash Flood      1 NNE Bevier            39.76N 92.56W
06/10/2026                   Macon              MO   Public

            Social media report. Several roads washed
            out near Bevier. Time estimated from radar.

&&

CMS