Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
443 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Two possible rounds of storms tonight, one across the eastern
  zones, the next through the overnight period

- Very pleasant high temperatures with a nice break from the
  heat Sunday

- Bouts of storm chances, with the highest pops across the
  western zones for the next business week with warm but less
  hot conditions

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Several of the CAMs have come into better agreement with the
convective evolution this evening and through the overnight
period. The first round, during the mid evening hours, looks to
form off a sfc front across the eastern zones. There is a chance
that this activity may clip or just remain SE of Hays, Kansas.
The second round of storms will form off the higher terrain of
Colorado and drift across the Kansas prairie late tonight and
into the overnight hours. This second round may impact the
western and central zones. As far as severe weather is
concerned, there is marginal bulk shear (30 kt) for weaker/lower
end supercell structures... and with an eventual line out as
the storms develop upscale. This is for the first round. The
initial threats of 1-2" hail then winds in the 60 to 70 mph
looks likely for the first around across the eastern zones. For
the second around, there could be some smaller hail, but by that
time in the late evening, the main threat should be more of
convective outflows in the 50-65 mph range. Coverage will be
very hit-or-miss in both rounds with high variable
precipitation amounts, since we are dealing with two rounds of
thunderstorms.

Winds will eventually shift out of the N to NE and blow in the
5-20 mph range tomorrow. There will be cold air advection during
the day in the wake of the front with 850 hPa temperatures
decreasing down to around 10C by Sunday afternoon. This will
support very pleasant high temperatures tomorrow with values
peaking in the low to mid 70s across the Interstate 70 corridor
to lower 80s across the Oklahoma border. Tomorrow would be a
good day to do any outdoor activities/chores given the nice
break from the heat. Humidity will not be that bad either with
dewpoints remaining in the 50s for much of the day. Monday
morning might be a good morning to turn off the AC, as lows
during this period will be in the upper 50s to around 60F.
There is also a low chance of showers in the morning, mainly
confined to the western zones.

The long range models and their ensemble counterparts are not
showing any major mid-level anticyclone for the first half of
next week. This would support the notion of more near normal
highs and lows Monday through Wednesday. Highs look to peak in
the 70s and lows look to bottom out in the 50s. There also could
be showers and storms developing across the higher terrain of
Colorado and then drifting across western Kansas each day. The
highest pops will be kept to the western zones, which is typical
for this type of weather pattern. More weak mid-level ridging
may be possible for the second half of the week with both highs
and lows increasing.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 444 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the evening.
Eventually, IFR to even LIFR cigs are expected through the
early morning hours in the form of low stratus. Flight
conditions should improve slowly around 18Z or so tomorrow, as
these low clouds start to erode. Otherwise, expect a wind shift
later tonight with winds become N to NE 10-15 kt in the wake of
a front. For storms, it seems unlikely of an immediate impact
of storms to the terminals. Have delayed overnight storm timing
and have a PROB30/CB/TS groups for KGCK and KHYS, where
confidence is higher than KDDC and KLBL. Timing on the storms
look to be in the 06Z and 12Z period, based on the latest CAMs.
Gusty and variable winds cannot be ruled out completely with
any storm activity.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
856 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0853 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     12 SW Plymell           37.68N 101.02W
09/19/2026  M66 MPH          Haskell            KS   Mesonet

            Davis Weatherlink station 13.6 miles SW of
            Plymell.

&&

AS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
928 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

KSZ063-064-076>078-200315-
Gray KS-Finney KS-Hodgeman KS-Haskell KS-Ford KS-
928 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT FORD...FINNEY...HODGEMAN...GRAY
AND NORTHEASTERN HASKELL COUNTIES THROUGH 1015 PM CDT...

At 927 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Friend to 8 miles northwest of Montezuma.
Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Pierceville, Charleston, and Friend around 930 PM CDT.
  Ingalls around 935 PM CDT.
  Cimarron around 945 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Ensign, Howell,
Dodge City and Kalvesta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3824 9958 3751 9957 3753 10061 3826 10109
TIME...MOT...LOC 0227Z 263DEG 32KT 3822 10092 3768 10056

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

RBURG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
930 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

KSZ043-044-200315-
Lane KS-Scott KS-
930 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SCOTT AND LANE COUNTIES THROUGH
1015 PM CDT...

At 930 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northeast of Leoti to 8 miles southeast
of Friend. Movement was northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Modoc and Shallow Water around 935 PM CDT.
  Scott City around 945 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3870 10027 3827 10026 3827 10112 3870 10113
TIME...MOT...LOC 0230Z 235DEG 23KT 3852 10125 3815 10082

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

RBURG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1045 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

KSZ045-200430-
Ness KS-
1045 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL NESS COUNTY THROUGH 1130
PM CDT...

At 1045 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Ness City, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Ness City around 1050 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3854 9959 3853 9959 3826 10000 3839 10021
      3869 10015
TIME...MOT...LOC 0345Z 226DEG 29KT 3837 10001

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

RBURG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1053 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

KSZ064-078-079-200430-
Hodgeman KS-Edwards KS-Ford KS-
1053 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN FORD...SOUTHEASTERN
HODGEMAN AND WEST CENTRAL EDWARDS COUNTIES THROUGH 1130 PM CDT...

At 1053 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Spearville, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Ford,
southeastern Hodgeman and west central Edwards Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3785 9980 3795 9985 3805 9954 3784 9945
TIME...MOT...LOC 0353Z 251DEG 17KT 3793 9977

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

RBURG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1121 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

KSZ030-031-045-046-064>066-078-079-200515-
Hodgeman KS-Stafford KS-Rush KS-Pawnee KS-Trego KS-Ellis KS-Ness KS-
Edwards KS-Ford KS-
1121 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN FORD...NESS...
EASTERN HODGEMAN...SOUTHEASTERN TREGO...PAWNEE...CENTRAL STAFFORD...
RUSH...EDWARDS AND ELLIS COUNTIES THROUGH 1215 AM CDT...

At 1121 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles south of Trego Center to near Kinsley.
Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Lewis, Rozel, Alexander, Brownell, and Cedar Bluff around 1125 PM
  CDT.
  McCracken, Garfield, and Sanford around 1130 PM CDT.
  Nekoma around 1135 PM CDT.
  Belpre, Hargrave, and Frizell around 1140 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Rush Center, Ash
Valley, Riga, Zook, Larned, Ellis, La Crosse, Liebenthal, Bison,
Schoenchen, Timken, Yocemento and Antonino.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3879 9904 3826 9903 3826 9866 3804 9850
      3773 9952 3773 9953 3870 10025 3870 10016
      3877 10015 3913 9961 3913 9928
TIME...MOT...LOC 0421Z 243DEG 28KT 3879 9988 3791 9934

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TURNER