Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
443 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Two possible rounds of storms tonight, one across the eastern
  zones, the next through the overnight period

- Very pleasant high temperatures with a nice break from the
  heat Sunday

- Bouts of storm chances, with the highest pops across the
  western zones for the next business week with warm but less
  hot conditions

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Several of the CAMs have come into better agreement with the
convective evolution this evening and through the overnight
period. The first round, during the mid evening hours, looks to
form off a sfc front across the eastern zones. There is a chance
that this activity may clip or just remain SE of Hays, Kansas.
The second round of storms will form off the higher terrain of
Colorado and drift across the Kansas prairie late tonight and
into the overnight hours. This second round may impact the
western and central zones. As far as severe weather is
concerned, there is marginal bulk shear (30 kt) for weaker/lower
end supercell structures... and with an eventual line out as
the storms develop upscale. This is for the first round. The
initial threats of 1-2" hail then winds in the 60 to 70 mph
looks likely for the first around across the eastern zones. For
the second around, there could be some smaller hail, but by that
time in the late evening, the main threat should be more of
convective outflows in the 50-65 mph range. Coverage will be
very hit-or-miss in both rounds with high variable
precipitation amounts, since we are dealing with two rounds of
thunderstorms.

Winds will eventually shift out of the N to NE and blow in the
5-20 mph range tomorrow. There will be cold air advection during
the day in the wake of the front with 850 hPa temperatures
decreasing down to around 10C by Sunday afternoon. This will
support very pleasant high temperatures tomorrow with values
peaking in the low to mid 70s across the Interstate 70 corridor
to lower 80s across the Oklahoma border. Tomorrow would be a
good day to do any outdoor activities/chores given the nice
break from the heat. Humidity will not be that bad either with
dewpoints remaining in the 50s for much of the day. Monday
morning might be a good morning to turn off the AC, as lows
during this period will be in the upper 50s to around 60F.
There is also a low chance of showers in the morning, mainly
confined to the western zones.

The long range models and their ensemble counterparts are not
showing any major mid-level anticyclone for the first half of
next week. This would support the notion of more near normal
highs and lows Monday through Wednesday. Highs look to peak in
the 70s and lows look to bottom out in the 50s. There also could
be showers and storms developing across the higher terrain of
Colorado and then drifting across western Kansas each day. The
highest pops will be kept to the western zones, which is typical
for this type of weather pattern. More weak mid-level ridging
may be possible for the second half of the week with both highs
and lows increasing.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 444 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the evening.
Eventually, IFR to even LIFR cigs are expected through the
early morning hours in the form of low stratus. Flight
conditions should improve slowly around 18Z or so tomorrow, as
these low clouds start to erode. Otherwise, expect a wind shift
later tonight with winds become N to NE 10-15 kt in the wake of
a front. For storms, it seems unlikely of an immediate impact
of storms to the terminals. Have delayed overnight storm timing
and have a PROB30/CB/TS groups for KGCK and KHYS, where
confidence is higher than KDDC and KLBL. Timing on the storms
look to be in the 06Z and 12Z period, based on the latest CAMs.
Gusty and variable winds cannot be ruled out completely with
any storm activity.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
507 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

KSZ066-081-192230-
Pratt KS-Stafford KS-
507 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN STAFFORD AND
NORTHEASTERN PRATT COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM CDT...

At 507 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Neola, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Neola around 510 PM CDT.
  Zenith around 520 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
south central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3773 9852 3781 9861 3800 9849 3799 9847
      3783 9847 3782 9846 3776 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 215DEG 30KT 3781 9854

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

FINCH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
512 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0453 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 SW Preston            37.75N 98.57W
09/19/2026  E70 MPH          Pratt              KS   Public

            Report was received from a public weather
            station.

&&

RCB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
514 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 NE Preston            37.79N 98.53W
09/19/2026  M58 MPH          Pratt              KS   Public

            Report was from a public weather station.

&&

RCB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
521 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 W Pratt               37.64N 98.78W
09/19/2026                   Pratt              KS   Emergency Mngr

            Emergency manager reported roof damage to
            several outbuildings.

&&

RCB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
710 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

KSZ061-074-200100-
Stanton KS-Hamilton KS-
710 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN HAMILTON AND
STANTON COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM CDT/700 PM MDT/...

At 709 PM CDT/609 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near The Saunders Elevator, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Johnson City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3798 10204 3805 10180 3740 10157 3740 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0009Z 252DEG 26KT 3754 10208

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

RBURG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
721 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

KSZ084-200100-
Morton KS-
721 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT MORTON COUNTY THROUGH 800 PM
CDT...

At 721 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Stonington, or 18 miles south of The Saunders Elevator, moving east
at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Richfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3739 10204 3739 10171 3707 10165 3706 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 257DEG 25KT 3722 10213

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

RBURG