Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
443 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Two possible rounds of storms tonight, one across the eastern
  zones, the next through the overnight period

- Very pleasant high temperatures with a nice break from the
  heat Sunday

- Bouts of storm chances, with the highest pops across the
  western zones for the next business week with warm but less
  hot conditions

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Several of the CAMs have come into better agreement with the
convective evolution this evening and through the overnight
period. The first round, during the mid evening hours, looks to
form off a sfc front across the eastern zones. There is a chance
that this activity may clip or just remain SE of Hays, Kansas.
The second round of storms will form off the higher terrain of
Colorado and drift across the Kansas prairie late tonight and
into the overnight hours. This second round may impact the
western and central zones. As far as severe weather is
concerned, there is marginal bulk shear (30 kt) for weaker/lower
end supercell structures... and with an eventual line out as
the storms develop upscale. This is for the first round. The
initial threats of 1-2" hail then winds in the 60 to 70 mph
looks likely for the first around across the eastern zones. For
the second around, there could be some smaller hail, but by that
time in the late evening, the main threat should be more of
convective outflows in the 50-65 mph range. Coverage will be
very hit-or-miss in both rounds with high variable
precipitation amounts, since we are dealing with two rounds of
thunderstorms.

Winds will eventually shift out of the N to NE and blow in the
5-20 mph range tomorrow. There will be cold air advection during
the day in the wake of the front with 850 hPa temperatures
decreasing down to around 10C by Sunday afternoon. This will
support very pleasant high temperatures tomorrow with values
peaking in the low to mid 70s across the Interstate 70 corridor
to lower 80s across the Oklahoma border. Tomorrow would be a
good day to do any outdoor activities/chores given the nice
break from the heat. Humidity will not be that bad either with
dewpoints remaining in the 50s for much of the day. Monday
morning might be a good morning to turn off the AC, as lows
during this period will be in the upper 50s to around 60F.
There is also a low chance of showers in the morning, mainly
confined to the western zones.

The long range models and their ensemble counterparts are not
showing any major mid-level anticyclone for the first half of
next week. This would support the notion of more near normal
highs and lows Monday through Wednesday. Highs look to peak in
the 70s and lows look to bottom out in the 50s. There also could
be showers and storms developing across the higher terrain of
Colorado and then drifting across western Kansas each day. The
highest pops will be kept to the western zones, which is typical
for this type of weather pattern. More weak mid-level ridging
may be possible for the second half of the week with both highs
and lows increasing.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 444 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the evening.
Eventually, IFR to even LIFR cigs are expected through the
early morning hours in the form of low stratus. Flight
conditions should improve slowly around 18Z or so tomorrow, as
these low clouds start to erode. Otherwise, expect a wind shift
later tonight with winds become N to NE 10-15 kt in the wake of
a front. For storms, it seems unlikely of an immediate impact
of storms to the terminals. Have delayed overnight storm timing
and have a PROB30/CB/TS groups for KGCK and KHYS, where
confidence is higher than KDDC and KLBL. Timing on the storms
look to be in the 06Z and 12Z period, based on the latest CAMs.
Gusty and variable winds cannot be ruled out completely with
any storm activity.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
829 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

KSZ063-075>077-087-200200-
Gray KS-Finney KS-Meade KS-Grant KS-Haskell KS-
829 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN FINNEY...EASTERN
GRANT...NORTHWESTERN MEADE...SOUTHERN GRAY AND HASKELL COUNTIES
THROUGH 900 PM CDT...

At 829 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 12 miles north of Ulysses to near Moscow.
Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Ryus and Hickok around 835 PM CDT.
  Satanta around 845 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3739 10129 3773 10134 3775 10023 3738 10022
TIME...MOT...LOC 0129Z 260DEG 32KT 3774 10129 3731 10124

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

RBURG

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
856 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0853 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     12 SW Plymell           37.68N 101.02W
09/19/2026  M66 MPH          Haskell            KS   Mesonet

            Davis Weatherlink station 13.6 miles SW of
            Plymell.

&&

AS

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