Tornado Warning 17, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1141 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Collaborated with surrounding WFOs to issue a Flash Flood
  Watch until Midnight EDT tonight for the Southern two thirds
  of the CWA - based on this mornings MCS and additional several
  rounds of storms with very heavy rainfall rates this afternoon
  and evening as a warm front over the Alleghenies moves slowly
  to the east today

* Tornado risk is still 5% chc of a tornado w/in 25 miles of a
  point), but the conditional intensity group 1 has been
  introduced S & E of Harrisburg

* Damaging wind gust threat is high (45% chc of wind damage w/in
  25 miles of any point) over almost all of the CWA

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and locally very heavy
rainfall are possible from mid-day into late this evening.
Tornadoes also possible.

2) Sunday & Monday quiet but Tues looks active again with
severe and flood risks returning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and
heavy rainfall are possible from mid-day into late this evening.
Tornadoes also possible.

Little change from the previous disc regarding the severe TSRA
potential this afternoon/evening as the one-two punch of a warm
front/cold front helps to focus several rounds of convection.

Based on the rather extensive coverage of ground-priming TSRA
that blossomed into a MCS this morning (and additional rounds of
convection this afternoon in the midst of anomalously high
PWATs), we collaborated with WFOs PBZ, BGM and LWX to post a
Flash Flood Watch for our CWA from the I-80 corridor, south
(including Southern Lycoming Cty) through 04Z Sunday.

SPC has kept the Enhanced risk of severe weather expectation
for all of Central PA today. They have also added a special
(conditional intensity group or CIG) hatching to SErn PA
(including areas S & E of Harrisburg. The CIG designation means
that tornadoes that do develop in that area could be stronger
than just EF0/1. A reasonable maximum intensity of EF2-strength
tornadoes is possible today - again, mainly in SE PA.

Early showers/thunderstorms two will occur near/along a pair of
warm fronts moving north and east through the area this morning
and early afternoon.

The vort max supporting the initial rounds of mid to late
morning convection will be moving east of the Susq Valley early
this afternoon, followed by some cloud thinning and recovery
with pockets of MDT-STG Sfc-Based instability developing for the
afternoon and evening hours. This will help to ramp up the
threat for SVR TSRA and increase rainfall rates within the very
juicy airmass.

The timing of that vort max and the SHRA/TSRA it helps generate
look like they will be early enough in the day that ample
heating should then occur as the main warm front pushes into the
srn counties and across the CWA late this morning and early
this afternoon. As the CAPEs climb, and the wind
profiles/hodographs become rounded, the risk for deep convection
that would also take advantage of the high helicity to produce
supercells increases. This convection could start a couple hours
earlier than climatologically-favored timing...more like a noon
kickoff than early- to mid-aftn. The risk for discrete,
spinning cells is highest over the Lower Susq, but is possible
anywhere across the CWA with the warm front(s) and varied
boundaries from earlier rain and differential heating playing
roles to make the near storm llvl/blyr environment favorable.
70F+ dewpoints will arrive in the S with the first warm front,
and the LCLs should be low and favorable for tornado
development. The Sig Tor Parameter (STP) is highest over the SE,
esp in Lancaster Co. Lower (l-m60s) dewpoints hang on across
the N for much of the day.

The NW will have the next-best chance for severe storms to
develop. However, the increasing moisture and moderate-high
shear and moderate-high CAPEs will mean we'll have to watch all
of the CWA for storm initiation during the early and mid
afternoon hours.

Some of the storms could also be supercells away from the SE
- at least early in the event. The wind profile becomes more-
aligned/straight hodographs that would be more favorable for
storm clusters or a broken line, esp if a pre-frontal trough
materializes.

The cold front moving down from the NW should arrive late in
the day and could continue to provide lift for storms in the NW
half of the area into the evening. But, it may arrive in most
places too late (after stabilization from other/earlier precip)
to make a wide threat for severe wx to occur along it as it
passes. Expect precip along the cold front to weaken and fall
apart the deeper it gets into the CWA (into the central mtns).

If there is a chance for a bust or weakness in the severe
forecast it is over the central mtns/ridge-and-valley region.
Potent storms are likely/certain in the SE and the NW, but are
less certain in the Laurels and ridge and valley counties.

  ----------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Sunday & Monday quiet but Tues looks active again
with severe and flood risks returning.

A drying trend is expected Sunday with noticeably lower
humidity allowing for a pleasant day and relatively cool night.
However, latest RRFS shows some near sfc smoke returning to CPA
from the Great Lakes. This could result in reduced air quality
and hazy sky conditions.

Additional bouts of rain/t-storms are possible into the
workweek. The first of which will be around Tuesday (Day4) as a
well-developed synoptic storm moves through the Great Lakes and
NE CONUS. SPC has been highlighting a 15% prob (equivalent to
SLGT risk, level 2/5) for Central PA. Forcing/support for this
medium range severe outlook appears fairly robust and would take
stock in this risk manifesting at shorter ranges. WPC is also
highlighting Tuesday for heavy rainfall and possible flooding
with the synoptic system generating multiple chances for rain
with high atmos moisture in place.

Temperatures will trend near to slightly below historical
averages through late week into month-end with some noticeably
cooler nights possible.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
There will be two major areas of concern for the next 24 hours.
The first will be the continued visibility restrictions at all
terminals due to heavy surface smoke concentrations.
Visibilities will continue to remain less than 6 miles across
most of the Commonwealth through the early morning hours.
Anticipate widespread IFR and MVFR restrictions until after 16Z
Saturday. A surface center of low pressure is expected to move
over the Mid- Atlantic region today, and this will usher out the
smoke this afternoon while also bringing convection to the
region.

The timing of this convection remains the second point of
concern. The consensus thinking is there will be two rounds of
storms today. The first will come this morning as a cluster of
showers will develop along the leading moisture edge ahead of
the front (PWATs increasing to 1.5"-2.0") as moisture filters
in ahead of the Great Lakes system, with a few thunderstorms
being possible as this activity progresses west to east across
the Commonwealth. This activity should largely end from west to
east between 16 and 18Z. The second round of storms will kick
off later in the afternoon with a main line of storms along the
front developing between 20 and 22Z. Convection is expected to
exit the southeastern terminals of KLNS and KMDT by 06Z Sunday.
These storms today will be strong to severe and may produce
gusty winds, heavy rain, and flight restrictions.

Outlook...

Sun...Lingering -SHRA with restrictions possible early (primarily
driven by low ceilings), with VFR favored otherwise.

Mon...Mainly VFR.

Tue-Wed...Restrictions possible in showers/t-storms with cold
FROPA expected between Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for PAZ017>019-024>028-
033>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Dangelo
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Bowen

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
943 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

PAZ004>006-010>012-037-041-042-191345-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Tioga-
Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
943 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts,
tornadoes and large hail are possible from mid-day through late
evening. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat today. Heavy rain
may also cause isolated instances of flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday. Some of the
storms may make very heavy rain and may lead to flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ017>019-024>028-033>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-191345-
Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-
Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Southern Clinton-
Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-
Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
943 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts,
tornadoes and large hail are possible from mid-day through late
evening. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat today. Heavy rain
may also cause isolated instances of flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday. Some of the
storms may make very heavy rain and may lead to flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Lambert

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
729 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

PAZ024-033-181200-
Somerset PA-Cambria PA-
729 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN SOMERSET AND
SOUTHWESTERN CAMBRIA COUNTIES THROUGH 800 AM EDT...

At 728 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Nanty-Glo to near Westmont to near
Latrobe. Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Johnstown, Westmont, Windber, Ebensburg, Belmont, Nanty-Glo, Portage,
Geistown, Southmont, Cresson, Vinco, Boswell, Dale, East Conemaugh,
Salix-Beauty Line Park, Davidsville, Beaverdale-Lloydell, Paint,
Jerome, and Lilly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
these storms pass.

&&

LAT...LON 4036 7900 4050 7891 4047 7854 4045 7856
      4037 7856 4035 7861 4031 7864 4028 7865
      4026 7864 4018 7869 4014 7890 4018 7913
      4020 7913
TIME...MOT...LOC 1128Z 282DEG 24KT 4044 7894 4029 7910 4025 7933

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Lambert

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
822 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

PAZ024>026-033-034-181300-
Bedford PA-Somerset PA-Blair PA-Cambria PA-Huntingdon PA-
822 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BEDFORD...WEST
CENTRAL HUNTINGDON...NORTHEASTERN SOMERSET...SOUTHERN BLAIR AND
SOUTHWESTERN CAMBRIA COUNTIES THROUGH 900 AM EDT...

At 821 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Nanty-Glo to Portage to Windber. Movement was
east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Altoona, Johnstown, Hollidaysburg, Westmont, Windber, Ebensburg,
Belmont, Nanty-Glo, Portage, Roaring Spring, Geistown, Southmont, New
Enterprise, Martinsburg, Lakemont, Cresson, Gallitzin, Claysburg,
Vinco, and Loretto.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
these storms pass.

&&

LAT...LON 4053 7832 4029 7815 4017 7840 4018 7888
      4033 7900 4050 7888
TIME...MOT...LOC 1221Z 274DEG 27KT 4044 7879 4033 7868 4021 7880

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Lambert

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1103 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

PAZ056>059-063-181600-
Perry PA-Cumberland PA-Lebanon PA-Dauphin PA-Schuylkill PA-
1103 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN SCHUYLKILL...
DAUPHIN...NORTHEASTERN PERRY...NORTHEASTERN CUMBERLAND AND NORTHERN
LEBANON COUNTIES THROUGH NOON EDT...

At 1102 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 14 miles south of Selinsgrove to near
Linglestown to Enola. Movement was east northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Harrisburg, Pottsville, Colonial Park, Progress, Linglestown, Enola,
Schuylkill Haven, Minersville, Myerstown, St. Clair, Paxtonia,
Skyline View, Orwigsburg, Valley View, Millersburg, Marysville, Sand
Hill, Pine Grove, Port Carbon, and Lykens.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
these storms pass.

&&

LAT...LON 4056 7612 4052 7626 4052 7634 4049 7644
      4038 7627 4026 7708 4036 7707 4044 7703
      4059 7707 4060 7692 4062 7690 4061 7689
      4062 7689 4073 7613 4059 7610
TIME...MOT...LOC 1502Z 254DEG 43KT 4061 7696 4047 7686 4037 7690 4030
7698

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Lambert

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1152 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

PAZ024-025-033-034-181630-
Bedford PA-Somerset PA-Blair PA-Cambria PA-
1152 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BEDFORD...NORTHERN
SOMERSET...SOUTHWESTERN BLAIR AND SOUTHERN CAMBRIA COUNTIES THROUGH
1230 PM EDT...

At 1151 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Latrobe, moving east at 35 mph. Other strong storms were nearby.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Altoona, Johnstown, Westmont, Windber, Ebensburg, Belmont, Nanty-Glo,
Portage, Geistown, Southmont, Cresson, Gallitzin, Vinco, Loretto,
Boswell, Dale, East Conemaugh, Salix-Beauty Line Park, Davidsville,
and Beaverdale-Lloydell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in State College PA.

&&

LAT...LON 4008 7926 4010 7922 4012 7921 4011 7919
      4012 7917 4016 7916 4018 7913 4020 7913
      4036 7900 4046 7894 4056 7839 4018 7859
TIME...MOT...LOC 1551Z 260DEG 30KT 4024 7923

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Martin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1208 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

PAZ004-181715-
Warren PA-
1208 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WARREN COUNTY THROUGH 115 PM
EDT...

At 1207 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 24
miles north of Oil City, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Warren, Sheffield, Columbus, Youngsville, Russell, Spring Creek,
Scandia, Lottsville, Grand Valley, Warren South, Garland, Kinzua Dam,
Chapman State Park, Tidioute, Sugar Grove, Starbrick, Clarendon, and
Bear Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4200 7892 4195 7891 4183 7893 4183 7895
      4177 7895 4162 7897 4163 7926 4167 7961
      4199 7961
TIME...MOT...LOC 1607Z 275DEG 27KT 4179 7970

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Martin

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
1233 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1225 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SE Boswell            40.14N 79.01W
07/18/2026                   Somerset           PA   911 Call Center

            Tree down on Route 219 and Lincoln Hwy.

&&

MJT