Flash Flood Warning 35, NWS State College, PA

734 
WGUS71 KCTP 182153
FFSCTP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
553 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

PAC009-111-182203-
/O.EXP.KCTP.FF.W.0035.000000T0000Z-260718T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Bedford PA-Somerset PA-
553 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WEST 
CENTRAL BEDFORD AND CENTRAL SOMERSET COUNTIES...

Flood waters are receding. The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining 
road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 1200 AM EDT Sunday for a 
portion of central Pennsylvania.

&&

LAT...LON 4006 7913 4007 7876 4007 7844 3997 7848
      3998 7876 3998 7916

$$

Banghoff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1141 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Collaborated with surrounding WFOs to issue a Flash Flood
  Watch until Midnight EDT tonight for the Southern two thirds
  of the CWA - based on this mornings MCS and additional several
  rounds of storms with very heavy rainfall rates this afternoon
  and evening as a warm front over the Alleghenies moves slowly
  to the east today

* Tornado risk is still 5% chc of a tornado w/in 25 miles of a
  point), but the conditional intensity group 1 has been
  introduced S & E of Harrisburg

* Damaging wind gust threat is high (45% chc of wind damage w/in
  25 miles of any point) over almost all of the CWA

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and locally very heavy
rainfall are possible from mid-day into late this evening.
Tornadoes also possible.

2) Sunday & Monday quiet but Tues looks active again with
severe and flood risks returning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and
heavy rainfall are possible from mid-day into late this evening.
Tornadoes also possible.

Little change from the previous disc regarding the severe TSRA
potential this afternoon/evening as the one-two punch of a warm
front/cold front helps to focus several rounds of convection.

Based on the rather extensive coverage of ground-priming TSRA
that blossomed into a MCS this morning (and additional rounds of
convection this afternoon in the midst of anomalously high
PWATs), we collaborated with WFOs PBZ, BGM and LWX to post a
Flash Flood Watch for our CWA from the I-80 corridor, south
(including Southern Lycoming Cty) through 04Z Sunday.

SPC has kept the Enhanced risk of severe weather expectation
for all of Central PA today. They have also added a special
(conditional intensity group or CIG) hatching to SErn PA
(including areas S & E of Harrisburg. The CIG designation means
that tornadoes that do develop in that area could be stronger
than just EF0/1. A reasonable maximum intensity of EF2-strength
tornadoes is possible today - again, mainly in SE PA.

Early showers/thunderstorms two will occur near/along a pair of
warm fronts moving north and east through the area this morning
and early afternoon.

The vort max supporting the initial rounds of mid to late
morning convection will be moving east of the Susq Valley early
this afternoon, followed by some cloud thinning and recovery
with pockets of MDT-STG Sfc-Based instability developing for the
afternoon and evening hours. This will help to ramp up the
threat for SVR TSRA and increase rainfall rates within the very
juicy airmass.

The timing of that vort max and the SHRA/TSRA it helps generate
look like they will be early enough in the day that ample
heating should then occur as the main warm front pushes into the
srn counties and across the CWA late this morning and early
this afternoon. As the CAPEs climb, and the wind
profiles/hodographs become rounded, the risk for deep convection
that would also take advantage of the high helicity to produce
supercells increases. This convection could start a couple hours
earlier than climatologically-favored timing...more like a noon
kickoff than early- to mid-aftn. The risk for discrete,
spinning cells is highest over the Lower Susq, but is possible
anywhere across the CWA with the warm front(s) and varied
boundaries from earlier rain and differential heating playing
roles to make the near storm llvl/blyr environment favorable.
70F+ dewpoints will arrive in the S with the first warm front,
and the LCLs should be low and favorable for tornado
development. The Sig Tor Parameter (STP) is highest over the SE,
esp in Lancaster Co. Lower (l-m60s) dewpoints hang on across
the N for much of the day.

The NW will have the next-best chance for severe storms to
develop. However, the increasing moisture and moderate-high
shear and moderate-high CAPEs will mean we'll have to watch all
of the CWA for storm initiation during the early and mid
afternoon hours.

Some of the storms could also be supercells away from the SE
- at least early in the event. The wind profile becomes more-
aligned/straight hodographs that would be more favorable for
storm clusters or a broken line, esp if a pre-frontal trough
materializes.

The cold front moving down from the NW should arrive late in
the day and could continue to provide lift for storms in the NW
half of the area into the evening. But, it may arrive in most
places too late (after stabilization from other/earlier precip)
to make a wide threat for severe wx to occur along it as it
passes. Expect precip along the cold front to weaken and fall
apart the deeper it gets into the CWA (into the central mtns).

If there is a chance for a bust or weakness in the severe
forecast it is over the central mtns/ridge-and-valley region.
Potent storms are likely/certain in the SE and the NW, but are
less certain in the Laurels and ridge and valley counties.

  ----------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Sunday & Monday quiet but Tues looks active again
with severe and flood risks returning.

A drying trend is expected Sunday with noticeably lower
humidity allowing for a pleasant day and relatively cool night.
However, latest RRFS shows some near sfc smoke returning to CPA
from the Great Lakes. This could result in reduced air quality
and hazy sky conditions.

Additional bouts of rain/t-storms are possible into the
workweek. The first of which will be around Tuesday (Day4) as a
well-developed synoptic storm moves through the Great Lakes and
NE CONUS. SPC has been highlighting a 15% prob (equivalent to
SLGT risk, level 2/5) for Central PA. Forcing/support for this
medium range severe outlook appears fairly robust and would take
stock in this risk manifesting at shorter ranges. WPC is also
highlighting Tuesday for heavy rainfall and possible flooding
with the synoptic system generating multiple chances for rain
with high atmos moisture in place.

Temperatures will trend near to slightly below historical
averages through late week into month-end with some noticeably
cooler nights possible.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
There will be two major areas of concern for the next 24 hours.
The first will be the continued visibility restrictions at all
terminals due to heavy surface smoke concentrations.
Visibilities will continue to remain less than 6 miles across
most of the Commonwealth through the early morning hours.
Anticipate widespread IFR and MVFR restrictions until after 16Z
Saturday. A surface center of low pressure is expected to move
over the Mid- Atlantic region today, and this will usher out the
smoke this afternoon while also bringing convection to the
region.

The timing of this convection remains the second point of
concern. The consensus thinking is there will be two rounds of
storms today. The first will come this morning as a cluster of
showers will develop along the leading moisture edge ahead of
the front (PWATs increasing to 1.5"-2.0") as moisture filters
in ahead of the Great Lakes system, with a few thunderstorms
being possible as this activity progresses west to east across
the Commonwealth. This activity should largely end from west to
east between 16 and 18Z. The second round of storms will kick
off later in the afternoon with a main line of storms along the
front developing between 20 and 22Z. Convection is expected to
exit the southeastern terminals of KLNS and KMDT by 06Z Sunday.
These storms today will be strong to severe and may produce
gusty winds, heavy rain, and flight restrictions.

Outlook...

Sun...Lingering -SHRA with restrictions possible early (primarily
driven by low ceilings), with VFR favored otherwise.

Mon...Mainly VFR.

Tue-Wed...Restrictions possible in showers/t-storms with cold
FROPA expected between Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for PAZ017>019-024>028-
033>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Dangelo
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Bowen

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
133 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

PAZ004>006-010>012-037-041-042-191745-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Tioga-
Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
133 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 492 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts,
tornadoes and large hail are possible from mid-day through late
evening. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat today. Heavy rain
may also cause isolated instances of flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday. Some of the
storms may make very heavy rain and may lead to flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ017>019-024>028-033>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-191745-
Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-
Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Southern Clinton-
Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-
Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
133 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 492 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts,
tornadoes and large hail are possible from mid-day through late
evening. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat today. Heavy rain
may also cause isolated instances of flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday. Some of the
storms may make very heavy rain and may lead to flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
1244 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1226 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 W Mount Jewett        41.72N 78.71W
07/18/2026                   McKean             PA   911 Call Center

            Tree down on Mead Run Road blocking roadway.
            Time estimated by radar.

&&

MJT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
100 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

PAZ004-005-010-181745-
McKean PA-Warren PA-Elk PA-
100 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN ELK...SOUTHEASTERN
WARREN AND SOUTHWESTERN MCKEAN COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM EDT...

At 1258 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles southwest of Warren, moving east at 30 mph. Other strong storms
were forming nearby.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Kane, Sheffield, Wetmore, James City, and Ludlow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4176 7936 4173 7870 4146 7876 4150 7896
      4162 7896 4163 7938
TIME...MOT...LOC 1658Z 278DEG 25KT 4166 7928

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Martin

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
101 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1226 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 W Youngsville         41.85N 79.34W
07/18/2026                   Warren             PA   911 Call Center

            Tree down on Mead Run Road blocking roadway.
            Time estimated by radar.

&&

MJT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
118 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

PAZ026-034>036-181800-
Bedford PA-Fulton PA-Franklin PA-Huntingdon PA-
118 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN BEDFORD...SOUTHERN
HUNTINGDON...NORTH CENTRAL FRANKLIN AND NORTHEASTERN FULTON COUNTIES
THROUGH 200 PM EDT...

At 117 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles north of Breezewood, moving east at 40 mph. This storm was
part of a cluster of strong storms.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Bedford, New Enterprise, Everett, Waterfall, Rockhill Furnace, Wells
Tannery, Fort Littleton, Dudley, Valley-Hi, Willow Hill,
Fannettsburg, Roxbury, Doylesburg, Upper Strasburg, Sideling Hill
Rest Area, Saxton, Broad Top City, Three Springs, Orbisonia, and
Saltillo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
south central and central Pennsylvania.

&&

LAT...LON 4001 7851 4026 7840 4027 7834 4025 7829
      4027 7827 4031 7772 4027 7771 4029 7767
      4027 7766 4026 7767 4026 7765 4023 7765
      4022 7763 4005 7762
TIME...MOT...LOC 1717Z 268DEG 33KT 4018 7830

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Martin

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
119 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1226 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NNW Tidioute          41.73N 79.42W
07/18/2026                   Warren             PA   911 Call Center

            Trees down on Morrison Hill Rd. Time
            estimated by radar.

&&

MJT

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
126 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1224 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NNW Grand Valley      41.76N 79.56W
07/18/2026                   Warren             PA   911 Call Center

            Trees down blocking roadway on Eldred Center
            Rd and Eureka Rd.

&&

MJT