Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS State College, PA

329 
WGUS71 KCTP 190254
FFSCTP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1054 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

PAC033-190304-
/O.EXP.KCTP.FF.W.0036.000000T0000Z-260719T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Clearfield PA-
1054 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
NORTHWESTERN CLEARFIELD COUNTY...

Flood waters are receding. The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no 
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining 
road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 4115 7879 4117 7878 4118 7878 4119 7877
      4120 7877 4120 7871 4105 7839 4092 7852
      4099 7880 4113 7880

$$

Banghoff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
427 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch #492 in effect until 01Z Sunday

* Expanded the Flash Flood Watch (until Midnight EDT tonight)
  north to cover all of the CWA with the exception of the
  Northern Tier Counties - based on this mornings MCS and
  additional several rounds of storms with very heavy rainfall
  rates this afternoon and evening as a warm front over the
  Alleghenies moves slowly across Central PA

* Tornado risk is still 5% chc of a tornado w/in 25 miles of a
  point), but the conditional intensity group 1 has been
  introduced S & E of Harrisburg

* Damaging wind gust threat is high (45% chc of wind damage w/in
  25 miles of any point) over almost all of the CWA

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and locally very heavy
rainfall are possible from mid-day into late this evening.
Tornadoes also possible.

2) Sunday & Monday quiet but Tues looks active again with
severe and flood risks returning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and
heavy rainfall are possible through early this evening. A few
tornadoes area also possible with the strongest storms.

Little change from the previous disc regarding the severe TSRA
potential this afternoon/evening as the one-two punch of a warm
front/cold front helps to focus several rounds of convection.

Based on the number of afternoon TSRA that impacted ELK county
and adjacent parts of the northern Mtns (along with the rather
extensive coverage of ground- priming TSRA that blossomed into a
MCS this morning), we thought it would be prudent to expand the
Flood Watch (through 04Z Sunday) a layer of counties further
north.

Previous...

SPC has kept the Enhanced risk of severe weather expectation
for all of Central PA today. They have also added a special
(conditional intensity group or CIG) hatching to SErn PA
(including areas S & E of Harrisburg. The CIG designation means
that tornadoes that do develop in that area could be stronger
than just EF0/1. A reasonable maximum intensity of EF2-strength
tornadoes is possible today - again, mainly in SE PA.

Early showers/thunderstorms two will occur near/along a pair of
warm fronts moving north and east through the area this morning
and early afternoon.

The vort max supporting the initial rounds of mid to late
morning convection will be moving east of the Susq Valley early
this afternoon, followed by some cloud thinning and recovery
with pockets of MDT-STG Sfc-Based instability developing for the
afternoon and evening hours. This will help to ramp up the
threat for SVR TSRA and increase rainfall rates within the very
juicy airmass.

The timing of that vort max and the SHRA/TSRA it helps generate
look like they will be early enough in the day that ample
heating should then occur as the main warm front pushes into the
srn counties and across the CWA late this morning and early
this afternoon. As the CAPEs climb, and the wind
profiles/hodographs become rounded, the risk for deep convection
that would also take advantage of the high helicity to produce
supercells increases. This convection could start a couple hours
earlier than climatologically-favored timing...more like a noon
kickoff than early- to mid-aftn. The risk for discrete,
spinning cells is highest over the Lower Susq, but is possible
anywhere across the CWA with the warm front(s) and varied
boundaries from earlier rain and differential heating playing
roles to make the near storm llvl/blyr environment favorable.
70F+ dewpoints will arrive in the S with the first warm front,
and the LCLs should be low and favorable for tornado
development. The Sig Tor Parameter (STP) is highest over the SE,
esp in Lancaster Co. Lower (l-m60s) dewpoints hang on across
the N for much of the day.

The NW will have the next-best chance for severe storms to
develop. However, the increasing moisture and moderate-high
shear and moderate-high CAPEs will mean we'll have to watch all
of the CWA for storm initiation during the early and mid
afternoon hours.

Some of the storms could also be supercells away from the SE
- at least early in the event. The wind profile becomes more-
aligned/straight hodographs that would be more favorable for
storm clusters or a broken line, esp if a pre-frontal trough
materializes.

The cold front moving down from the NW should arrive late in
the day and could continue to provide lift for storms in the NW
half of the area into the evening. But, it may arrive in most
places too late (after stabilization from other/earlier precip)
to make a wide threat for severe wx to occur along it as it
passes. Expect precip along the cold front to weaken and fall
apart the deeper it gets into the CWA (into the central mtns).

If there is a chance for a bust or weakness in the severe
forecast it is over the central mtns/ridge-and-valley region.
Potent storms are likely/certain in the SE and the NW, but are
less certain in the Laurels and ridge and valley counties.

  ----------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Sunday & Monday quiet but Tues looks active again
with severe and flood risks returning.

A drying trend is expected Sunday with noticeably lower
humidity allowing for a pleasant day and relatively cool night.
However, latest RRFS shows some near sfc smoke returning to CPA
from the Great Lakes. This could result in reduced air quality
and hazy sky conditions.

Additional bouts of rain/t-storms are possible into the
workweek. The first of which will be around Tuesday (Day4) as a
well-developed synoptic storm moves through the Great Lakes and
NE CONUS. SPC has been highlighting a 15% prob (equivalent to
SLGT risk, level 2/5) for Central PA. Forcing/support for this
medium range severe outlook appears fairly robust and would take
stock in this risk manifesting at shorter ranges. WPC is also
highlighting Tuesday for heavy rainfall and possible flooding
with the synoptic system generating multiple chances for rain
with high atmos moisture in place.

Temperatures will trend near to slightly below historical
averages through late week into month-end with some noticeably
cooler nights possible.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Aviation concerns continue to revolve around convection across
northwest and south central PA through the afternoon hours. To a
lesser extent, FU continues across the region, dropping
visibilities to MVFR and IFR.

The first area of convection will move out of the southern part
of the state by late afternoon and focus will rthen shift back
to northern PA as a cold frontal boundary sags through the
state.

Confidence is about 40% that convection and associated -SHRA
will combine with low level smoke to bring down visibilities to
LIFR for a time this evening and overnight.

Expect conditions to improve Sunday morning as the cold front
pushes out low level smoke, and convection moves south of the
area. Conditions will improve from IFR to VFR by mid morning
with the last hold outs being any locations that had dense fog
overnight.

Outlook...

Mon...Mainly VFR.

Tue-Wed...Restrictions possible in showers/t-storms with cold
FROPA expected between Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ010>012-017>019-
024>028-033>036-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Dangelo
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Tyburski

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
750 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

PAZ004>006-010>012-037-041-042-045-046-200000-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Tioga-
Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-
750 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday. Some of the
storms may make damaging wind gusts and very heavy rain which may
lead to flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ017>019-024>028-033>036-049>053-056>059-063>066-200000-
Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-
Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Union-Snyder-
Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-
Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
750 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 492 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday. Some of the
storms may make damaging wind gusts and very heavy rain which may
lead to flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
717 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NNW Grampian          41.01N 78.64W
07/18/2026                   Clearfield         PA   Utility Company

            Tree damage reported along US 219 north of
            Grampian.

&&

NPB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
725 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

PAZ045-046-049-052-182345-
Southern Lycoming PA-Southern Clinton PA-Union PA-Northumberland PA-
725 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN NORTHUMBERLAND...
SOUTH CENTRAL LYCOMING...UNION AND SOUTHEASTERN CLINTON COUNTIES
THROUGH 745 PM EDT...

At 725 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Jersey Shore, moving southeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Milton, Lewisburg, Mifflinburg, Carroll, Watsontown, Linntown, New
Columbia, Montandon, Penns Creek, McElhattan, Allenwood, Vicksburg,
Elimsport, R.B. Winter State Park, Spruce Run Reservoir,
Collomsville, Forest Hill, Sand Bridge State Park, West Milton, and
New Berlin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
central and north central Pennsylvania.

&&

LAT...LON 4102 7676 4100 7678 4086 7703 4087 7707
      4099 7721 4104 7715 4101 7726 4114 7741
      4123 7713 4104 7676
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 309DEG 46KT 4113 7720

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Banghoff

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
726 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 WNW Glen Union        41.23N 77.58W
07/18/2026                   Clinton            PA   911 Call Center

            Trees down on wires along Route 120 and
            Zimmerman Lane.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
730 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 N Lock Haven          41.15N 77.46W
07/18/2026                   Clinton            PA   911 Call Center

            Trees down on wires along Havenview Road.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
736 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NE Penfield           41.24N 78.55W
07/18/2026                   Clearfield         PA   Utility Company

            Trees down on wires along Doctors Lane.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
736 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

PAZ012-017-018-190000-
Northern Centre PA-Northern Clinton PA-Clearfield PA-
736 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN CLEARFIELD...
NORTHWESTERN CENTRE AND WEST CENTRAL CLINTON COUNTIES THROUGH 800 PM
EDT...

At 736 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 21
miles northeast of Clearfield, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Karthaus, Snow Shoe, Clarence, Moshannon, Pine Glen, and Orviston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
central and north central Pennsylvania.

&&

LAT...LON 4107 7766 4102 7776 4095 7788 4098 7804
      4123 7830 4122 7810 4126 7806
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 311DEG 31KT 4114 7806

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Banghoff