Severe Thunderstorm Warning 285, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
255 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Thunderstorms have begun to develop in two areas of focus, ahead
of the cold front in NW PA and along a stationary sfc trough in
the southeast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon into
tonight

2) Flooding downpours possible this afternoon into tonight in
the Lower Susquehanna Valley

3) Variable sky conditions for the lunar eclipse tonight

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms
possible this afternoon into tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop this
afternoon ahead of a cold front across CPA and within a sfc
pressure trough in the southeast. SPC has continued the level
2/5 (SLGT) severe t-storm risk which extends from the eastern
slopes of the Allegheny Mtns eastward.

MLCAPE of 1500 J/kg and 0-6 km shear near 30 kts in the north
suggests a few low end supercells may develop. Weaker shear and
stronger CAPE in the SE suggests more pulse cells to start, but
storm motion from SW to NE is well aligned with the sfc pressure
trough so upscale growth into one or more slow moving / training
lines is likely as we head into this evening. The strongest
cells and clusters will be capable of producing scattered
damaging winds and at least isolated hail. Modestly curved low-
level hodographs may also support some brief tornado potential.
The severe threat should persist into the evening before storms
weaken/exit the eastern part of the CWA.

-------------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Flooding downpours possible this afternoon into
tonight across portions of the Lower Susquehanna Valley

A healthy influx of moisture via southwest flow will increase
PWATs to 1.50-1.75" across the Lower Susquehanna Valley by this
afternoon. CAMs suggest the heaviest 2-4+ inch rain amounts
will remain east of the CWA, but still suggest local bullseyes
of 1-2" in our southeastern zones along the weak pre
frontal/lee sfc trough. A couple rounds of heavy t-storm
downpours are possible with rain rates 1-2"/hr that could result
in scattered areas of flash flooding. Based on the +RA signal
in the hires ensembles and coordination with WFO PHI, a flash
flood watch continues for Schuylkill, Lebanon, and Lancaster
Counties.

A drying trend is forecast Friday into the last weekend of
August, thanks to high pressure building into the area behind
the cold front. This will likely setup a couple of foggy
mornings (Friday and Saturday). Rainfall looks fairly limited
heading into the first week of September; however despite the
start of meteorological Fall the summer is not over with temps
expected to rise above the historical average into the 80-90
degree range.

-------------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 3: Variable sky conditions for the lunar eclipse
tonight.

Forecast viewing conditions for the lunar eclipse range from
fair to poor tonight across central PA. The eclipse will begin
at 10:34 pm EDT and last for about 3 hours, ending at 1:52 am
EDT Friday. The worst view is most likely over the eastern half
of CPA due to exiting storms and associated cloud cover. Clouds
and low fog are also poised to develop in the NW during the
latter half of the eclipse. The eclipse will take place during
August's full moon, commonly referred to as the Sturgeon Moon.
It will also be the last full moon of the summer with the next
full moon set to rise a few nights after the autumnal (Fall)
equinox on September 22nd.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Kept all sites with thunder Probs this afternoon, confidence is
highest at MDT and LNS with higher storm coverage expected in
eastern PA. Brief drops to IFR visibilities in these downpours
along with gusty winds, possibly in excess of 40kts, may
accompany these storms. Outside of storms, generally VFR conds
for the remainder of the afternoon.

With high pressure building in the wake of the storms this
afternoon, tonight into Friday morning looks to see fog and low
ceilings building in, possibly into the LIFR category across the
north and west. Region- wide restrictions into Friday morning
are possible, trending towards VFR again late Fri afternoon
through the remainder of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Sat...AM Fog; otherwise VFR.

Sun-Mon...Mainly VFR.

Tue...Chc afternoon SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Friday for PAZ058-059-066.

&&

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl/Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Colbert
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Colbert
AVIATION...Colbert/Lambrech

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
353 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

PAZ005-010-011-017-024-033-280800-
McKean-Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-Cambria-Somerset-
353 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and early this evening. Localized damaging wind gusts
and hail may accompany these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ012-018-019-026>028-035-036-041-042-045-046-049>053-056-057-
063>065-280800-
Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Fulton-Franklin-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-
Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-
Dauphin-Cumberland-Adams-York-
353 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 632 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ006-025-034-037-280800-
Potter-Blair-Bedford-Tioga-
353 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and evening. Localized damaging wind gusts and hail
may accompany these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ004-280800-
Warren-
353 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ058-059-066-280800-
Schuylkill-Lebanon-Lancaster-
353 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 632 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Martin

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
639 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0638 PM     Flash Flood      1 SSE Muncy Valley      41.33N 76.59W
08/27/2026                   Sullivan           PA   911 Call Center

            Water rescue.

&&

ANK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
640 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 PM     Flash Flood      Hughesville             41.24N 76.73W
08/27/2026                   Lycoming           PA   Public

            Road flooding and closed roads.

&&

ANK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
641 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0631 PM     Flash Flood      2 SSE Muncy Valley      41.33N 76.59W
08/27/2026                   Sullivan           PA   Trained Spotter

            Severe road flooding.

&&

ANK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
648 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 PM     Flash Flood      4 NNE Mercersburg       39.88N 77.87W
08/27/2026                   Franklin           PA   911 Call Center

            Flooded roadways.

&&

ANK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
650 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

PAZ059-066-272330-
Lancaster PA-Lebanon PA-
650 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN LANCASTER AND SOUTHERN
LEBANON COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM EDT...

At 649 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Cornwall, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lebanon, Ephrata, Lititz, Palmyra, Manheim, Annville, Cornwall,
Akron, Myerstown, Denver, Campbelltown, Reamstown, Pleasant Hill,
Sand Hill, Newmanstown, Lebanon South, Cleona, Adamstown, Avon, and
Richland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
south central Pennsylvania.

&&

LAT...LON 4016 7609 4017 7658 4019 7658 4020 7657
      4022 7658 4032 7658 4040 7629 4036 7623
      4036 7620 4031 7614 4020 7597
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 268DEG 16KT 4022 7648

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Teare

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
654 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

PAZ036-056-063-272345-
Perry PA-Franklin PA-Cumberland PA-
654 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL FRANKLIN...SOUTHERN
PERRY AND NORTHWESTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM EDT...

At 653 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Shippensburg to near Carlisle. Movement
was northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Carlisle, Enola, Plainfield, Schlusser, Marysville, Duncannon,
Newville, New Kingstown, Bloserville, Wertzville, Loysville, Carlisle
Springs, Colonel Denning State Park, Shermansdale, Landisburg, and
Penn State Dickinson School Of Law.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
south central Pennsylvania.

&&

LAT...LON 4018 7773 4041 7733 4039 7703 4036 7701
      4036 7694 4032 7691 4030 7692 4013 7734
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 239DEG 22KT 4017 7758 4019 7739

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Banghoff