Severe Thunderstorm Warning 280, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
255 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Thunderstorms have begun to develop in two areas of focus, ahead
of the cold front in NW PA and along a stationary sfc trough in
the southeast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon into
tonight

2) Flooding downpours possible this afternoon into tonight in
the Lower Susquehanna Valley

3) Variable sky conditions for the lunar eclipse tonight

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms
possible this afternoon into tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop this
afternoon ahead of a cold front across CPA and within a sfc
pressure trough in the southeast. SPC has continued the level
2/5 (SLGT) severe t-storm risk which extends from the eastern
slopes of the Allegheny Mtns eastward.

MLCAPE of 1500 J/kg and 0-6 km shear near 30 kts in the north
suggests a few low end supercells may develop. Weaker shear and
stronger CAPE in the SE suggests more pulse cells to start, but
storm motion from SW to NE is well aligned with the sfc pressure
trough so upscale growth into one or more slow moving / training
lines is likely as we head into this evening. The strongest
cells and clusters will be capable of producing scattered
damaging winds and at least isolated hail. Modestly curved low-
level hodographs may also support some brief tornado potential.
The severe threat should persist into the evening before storms
weaken/exit the eastern part of the CWA.

-------------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Flooding downpours possible this afternoon into
tonight across portions of the Lower Susquehanna Valley

A healthy influx of moisture via southwest flow will increase
PWATs to 1.50-1.75" across the Lower Susquehanna Valley by this
afternoon. CAMs suggest the heaviest 2-4+ inch rain amounts
will remain east of the CWA, but still suggest local bullseyes
of 1-2" in our southeastern zones along the weak pre
frontal/lee sfc trough. A couple rounds of heavy t-storm
downpours are possible with rain rates 1-2"/hr that could result
in scattered areas of flash flooding. Based on the +RA signal
in the hires ensembles and coordination with WFO PHI, a flash
flood watch continues for Schuylkill, Lebanon, and Lancaster
Counties.

A drying trend is forecast Friday into the last weekend of
August, thanks to high pressure building into the area behind
the cold front. This will likely setup a couple of foggy
mornings (Friday and Saturday). Rainfall looks fairly limited
heading into the first week of September; however despite the
start of meteorological Fall the summer is not over with temps
expected to rise above the historical average into the 80-90
degree range.

-------------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 3: Variable sky conditions for the lunar eclipse
tonight.

Forecast viewing conditions for the lunar eclipse range from
fair to poor tonight across central PA. The eclipse will begin
at 10:34 pm EDT and last for about 3 hours, ending at 1:52 am
EDT Friday. The worst view is most likely over the eastern half
of CPA due to exiting storms and associated cloud cover. Clouds
and low fog are also poised to develop in the NW during the
latter half of the eclipse. The eclipse will take place during
August's full moon, commonly referred to as the Sturgeon Moon.
It will also be the last full moon of the summer with the next
full moon set to rise a few nights after the autumnal (Fall)
equinox on September 22nd.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Kept all sites with thunder Probs this afternoon, confidence is
highest at MDT and LNS with higher storm coverage expected in
eastern PA. Brief drops to IFR visibilities in these downpours
along with gusty winds, possibly in excess of 40kts, may
accompany these storms. Outside of storms, generally VFR conds
for the remainder of the afternoon.

With high pressure building in the wake of the storms this
afternoon, tonight into Friday morning looks to see fog and low
ceilings building in, possibly into the LIFR category across the
north and west. Region- wide restrictions into Friday morning
are possible, trending towards VFR again late Fri afternoon
through the remainder of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Sat...AM Fog; otherwise VFR.

Sun-Mon...Mainly VFR.

Tue...Chc afternoon SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Friday for PAZ058-059-066.

&&

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl/Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Colbert
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Colbert
AVIATION...Colbert/Lambrech

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
353 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

PAZ005-010-011-017-024-033-280800-
McKean-Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-Cambria-Somerset-
353 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and early this evening. Localized damaging wind gusts
and hail may accompany these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ012-018-019-026>028-035-036-041-042-045-046-049>053-056-057-
063>065-280800-
Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Fulton-Franklin-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-
Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-
Dauphin-Cumberland-Adams-York-
353 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 632 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ006-025-034-037-280800-
Potter-Blair-Bedford-Tioga-
353 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and evening. Localized damaging wind gusts and hail
may accompany these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ004-280800-
Warren-
353 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ058-059-066-280800-
Schuylkill-Lebanon-Lancaster-
353 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 632 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Martin

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