Severe Thunderstorm Warning 282, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
255 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Thunderstorms have begun to develop in two areas of focus, ahead
of the cold front in NW PA and along a stationary sfc trough in
the southeast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon into
tonight

2) Flooding downpours possible this afternoon into tonight in
the Lower Susquehanna Valley

3) Variable sky conditions for the lunar eclipse tonight

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms
possible this afternoon into tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue to develop this
afternoon ahead of a cold front across CPA and within a sfc
pressure trough in the southeast. SPC has continued the level
2/5 (SLGT) severe t-storm risk which extends from the eastern
slopes of the Allegheny Mtns eastward.

MLCAPE of 1500 J/kg and 0-6 km shear near 30 kts in the north
suggests a few low end supercells may develop. Weaker shear and
stronger CAPE in the SE suggests more pulse cells to start, but
storm motion from SW to NE is well aligned with the sfc pressure
trough so upscale growth into one or more slow moving / training
lines is likely as we head into this evening. The strongest
cells and clusters will be capable of producing scattered
damaging winds and at least isolated hail. Modestly curved low-
level hodographs may also support some brief tornado potential.
The severe threat should persist into the evening before storms
weaken/exit the eastern part of the CWA.

-------------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Flooding downpours possible this afternoon into
tonight across portions of the Lower Susquehanna Valley

A healthy influx of moisture via southwest flow will increase
PWATs to 1.50-1.75" across the Lower Susquehanna Valley by this
afternoon. CAMs suggest the heaviest 2-4+ inch rain amounts
will remain east of the CWA, but still suggest local bullseyes
of 1-2" in our southeastern zones along the weak pre
frontal/lee sfc trough. A couple rounds of heavy t-storm
downpours are possible with rain rates 1-2"/hr that could result
in scattered areas of flash flooding. Based on the +RA signal
in the hires ensembles and coordination with WFO PHI, a flash
flood watch continues for Schuylkill, Lebanon, and Lancaster
Counties.

A drying trend is forecast Friday into the last weekend of
August, thanks to high pressure building into the area behind
the cold front. This will likely setup a couple of foggy
mornings (Friday and Saturday). Rainfall looks fairly limited
heading into the first week of September; however despite the
start of meteorological Fall the summer is not over with temps
expected to rise above the historical average into the 80-90
degree range.

-------------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 3: Variable sky conditions for the lunar eclipse
tonight.

Forecast viewing conditions for the lunar eclipse range from
fair to poor tonight across central PA. The eclipse will begin
at 10:34 pm EDT and last for about 3 hours, ending at 1:52 am
EDT Friday. The worst view is most likely over the eastern half
of CPA due to exiting storms and associated cloud cover. Clouds
and low fog are also poised to develop in the NW during the
latter half of the eclipse. The eclipse will take place during
August's full moon, commonly referred to as the Sturgeon Moon.
It will also be the last full moon of the summer with the next
full moon set to rise a few nights after the autumnal (Fall)
equinox on September 22nd.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Kept all sites with thunder Probs this afternoon, confidence is
highest at MDT and LNS with higher storm coverage expected in
eastern PA. Brief drops to IFR visibilities in these downpours
along with gusty winds, possibly in excess of 40kts, may
accompany these storms. Outside of storms, generally VFR conds
for the remainder of the afternoon.

With high pressure building in the wake of the storms this
afternoon, tonight into Friday morning looks to see fog and low
ceilings building in, possibly into the LIFR category across the
north and west. Region- wide restrictions into Friday morning
are possible, trending towards VFR again late Fri afternoon
through the remainder of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Sat...AM Fog; otherwise VFR.

Sun-Mon...Mainly VFR.

Tue...Chc afternoon SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Friday for PAZ058-059-066.

&&

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl/Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Colbert
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Colbert
AVIATION...Colbert/Lambrech

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
353 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

PAZ005-010-011-017-024-033-280800-
McKean-Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-Cambria-Somerset-
353 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and early this evening. Localized damaging wind gusts
and hail may accompany these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ012-018-019-026>028-035-036-041-042-045-046-049>053-056-057-
063>065-280800-
Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Fulton-Franklin-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-
Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-
Dauphin-Cumberland-Adams-York-
353 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 632 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ006-025-034-037-280800-
Potter-Blair-Bedford-Tioga-
353 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and evening. Localized damaging wind gusts and hail
may accompany these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ004-280800-
Warren-
353 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ058-059-066-280800-
Schuylkill-Lebanon-Lancaster-
353 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 632 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Martin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
611 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

PAZ012-041-272245-
Northern Clinton PA-Northern Lycoming PA-
611 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL LYCOMING AND
CENTRAL CLINTON COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM EDT...

At 611 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles northwest of Lock Haven, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Renovo, South Renovo, Glen Union, Waterville, Hyner, and Little Pine
State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
north central Pennsylvania.

&&

LAT...LON 4138 7729 4121 7735 4118 7741 4122 7774
      4137 7774
TIME...MOT...LOC 2211Z 270DEG 24KT 4126 7761

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Teare

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
613 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

PAZ059-066-272300-
Lancaster PA-Lebanon PA-
613 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL LANCASTER AND
SOUTHEASTERN LEBANON COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT...

At 613 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Ephrata, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ephrata, Denver, Reamstown, Rothsville, Newmanstown, Adamstown,
Richland, Brickerville, Schaefferstown, Kleinfeltersville, Reinholds,
Schoeneck, and Penryn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
south central Pennsylvania.

&&

LAT...LON 4015 7625 4021 7637 4039 7628 4039 7627
      4036 7623 4036 7620 4031 7614 4028 7608
      4025 7605
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 217DEG 11KT 4023 7626

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Banghoff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
617 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

PAZ041-042-046-051>053-272300-
Columbia PA-Southern Lycoming PA-Sullivan PA-Northumberland PA-
Northern Lycoming PA-Montour PA-
617 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL NORTHUMBERLAND...
NORTH CENTRAL MONTOUR...SOUTHEASTERN LYCOMING...NORTHERN COLUMBIA AND
SOUTHERN SULLIVAN COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT...

At 617 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles east of Montoursville, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Muncy, Hughesville, Montgomery, Rohrsburg, Iola, Jamison City,
Waller, Lairdsville, Ricketts Glen State Park, Central, Fairmount
Spgs, Biggertown, Muncy Valley, Delaware Run, Millville, Benton,
Picture Rocks, and Stillwater.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
central and north central Pennsylvania.

&&

LAT...LON 4111 7629 4112 7687 4127 7686 4138 7670
      4139 7628 4137 7628 4131 7631 4120 7632
      4116 7629
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 270DEG 24KT 4121 7671

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Teare

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
629 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NNW Fannettsburg      40.06N 77.84W
08/27/2026                   Franklin           PA   911 Call Center

            Telephone pole brought down on a vehicle, no
            injuries.

&&

ANK

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Corrected
National Weather Service State College PA
630 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NNW Fannettsburg      40.06N 77.84W
08/27/2026                   Franklin           PA   911 Call Center

            Corrects previous tstm wnd dmg report from 1
            NNW Fannettsburg. Telephone pole brought
            down on a vehicle, no injuries.

&&

ANK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
632 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

PAZ028-050-052-272315-
Northumberland PA-Juniata PA-Snyder PA-
632 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL NORTHUMBERLAND...
NORTHEASTERN JUNIATA AND CENTRAL SNYDER COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM
EDT...

At 632 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 17
miles southwest of Selinsgrove, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Selinsgrove, Hummels Wharf, Middleburg, Kreamer, Port Trevorton,
Penns Creek, Richfield, Mount Pleasant Mills, Paxtonville,
Meiserville, Fremont, Beavertown, New Berlin, Freeburg, and
Selinsgrove Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
central Pennsylvania.

&&

LAT...LON 4060 7709 4059 7714 4065 7726 4087 7705
      4086 7702 4087 7700 4088 7697 4079 7676
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 229DEG 21KT 4067 7715

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Teare