Flash Flood Warning 37, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
839 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Level 2/5 severe t-storm risk shifted to the west out of Warren
County for day one.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and heavy
rainfall remain possible on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Since sunrise earlier today, there has been isolated showers
and storms, mainly across the high terrain. High clouds and
smoke at high levels has took the edge off the heating some
earlier today.

Expect activity to weaken over the next few hours. The cold
front is still well to the north and west. Best area for storms
to fire up late is well to the west of central PA, as noted by
SPC day one outlk.

KEY MESSAGE 1: Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds
and heavy rainfall remain possible on Tuesday.

Complex pattern for the next few days. As been the case since
early Spring, models close off the low by later Wed. A winter
like pattern. Also one that supports heavy rain not too far
from our CWA.

Before this time, models such as the 12Z NAM drop the activity
to the south of our area on Tuesday. Short range models show
a lot of variation. Anything forming to our west late tonight
would likely have to drop more to the south, then to the east
or northeast.

More information below.

Timing and placement uncertainty grows heading into tonight
with continued CAM variability concerning downstream
development/propagation of Great Lakes/Ohio Valley MCS activity.
The main shortwave does appear to reach CPA by Tuesday morning.
The decaying? MCS or related feature and associated cloud cover
could dampen severe risk into the afternoon. Hires guidance
seems to suggest an eastward shift in the greatest svr/FF risk
as the trough deepens over the northern Mid Atlantic. Some heavy
rain potential will linger into Wednesday as the slow moving
upper low pivots from northeast PA toward southern New England.
Storm totals could exceed 2-3 over some parts of the northeast
CWA by Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Complex set of TAFs for the 00Z issuance, with spotty SHRA/TSRA
increasing in coverage from west to east this evening & into
the overnight hours, followed by a swath of more numerous
SHRA/TSRA alongside lowering cloud ceilings as a surface low
moves across the region during the morning & afternoon, with
gradual improvements behind the low pressure center despite
spotty SHRA/TSRA and lingering low clouds bringing the potential
for flight restrictions.

VFR is favored outside of any SHRA/TSRA this evening, with
convective activity trending more numerous overnight
(particularly north and west of KMDT/KLNS), suggesting that
flight restrictions to MVFR-IFR will become more
likely/persistent. A more defined cluster of showers and storms
associated with the low pressure center will move west to east
across our area between the early morning and late afternoon,
resulting in prevailing MVFR-IFR ceiling restrictions with
periodic MVFR-IFR visibility restrictions. Heating may be
sufficient for strong to severe thunderstorms across eastern
Pennsylvania (best chance at KMDT/KLNS), with gusty/damaging
winds being the primary threat.

Behind the low pressure center, showers/storms will become more
widely scattered with gradual improvements to ceiling
restrictions, though confidence is low regarding the extent of
prevailing VFR across our terminals during the latter half of
the TAF period.

Outlook...

Wed-Fri...Improving conditions into late week with lingering
-SHRA. Patchy AM fog.

Sat...Restrictions possible as chances increase for showers and
perhaps some thunderstorms. Patchy AM fog.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl/Martin
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Martin
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Martin
AVIATION...Teare

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
917 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-280930-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
917 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Isolated strong storms will be possible overnight, mainly
west of route 219.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and localized
flooding downpours are possible Tuesday, with the bulk occurring
near and to the southeast of the Interstate 81 corridor.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Martin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1205 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

PAZ027-028-056-280500-
Perry PA-Juniata PA-Mifflin PA-
1205 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MIFFLIN...JUNIATA AND
PERRY COUNTIES THROUGH 100 AM EDT...

At 1204 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Lewistown to 24 miles east of Huntingdon
to 16 miles northwest of Carlisle to 13 miles northwest of
Shippensburg. Movement was east northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lewistown, Newport, Honey Grove, New Bloomfield, Spruce Hill, Strodes
Mills, Juniata Terrace, Mexico, East Waterford, Alfarata, Loysville,
Ickesburg, Blacklog, Perulack, Big Spring State Park, Walnut, Colonel
Denning State Park, Shermansdale, Mifflintown, and Port Royal.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4023 7761 4023 7765 4029 7767 4028 7768
      4038 7775 4037 7776 4049 7780 4067 7746
      4052 7714 4037 7708 4028 7725 4027 7732
      4029 7733 4026 7742 4031 7736 4032 7736
      4020 7761
TIME...MOT...LOC 0404Z 257DEG 14KT 4051 7767 4046 7755 4031 7749 4023
7764

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Lambert

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service State College PA
1209 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1152 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Bradford Airport        41.80N 78.64W
07/27/2026  M62 MPH          McKean             PA   ASOS

&&

MRC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1243 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

PAZ036-064-280530-
Adams PA-Franklin PA-
1243 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN ADAMS AND
SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH 130 AM EDT...

At 1242 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Chambersburg, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Chambersburg, Gettysburg, Guilford, Carroll Valley, Fayetteville,
Mont Alto, Scotland, Cashtown, Orrtanna, Biglerville, Arendtsville,
Fairfield, McKnightstown, Quincy, Liberty Mountain Resort, Penn State
Mont Alto, Gettysburg College, and Gettysburg National Military Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3991 7772 3999 7769 4003 7761 3999 7747
      3998 7746 3995 7746 3998 7743 3992 7723
      3979 7723 3972 7733 3972 7747
TIME...MOT...LOC 0442Z 303DEG 20KT 3993 7758

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Lambert

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
105 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

PAZ005-006-280600-
McKean PA-Potter PA-
105 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN MCKEAN AND
NORTHWESTERN POTTER COUNTIES THROUGH 200 AM EDT...

At 104 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Olean, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Shinglehouse, Eldred, Oswayo, and Ceres.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 4200 7796 4193 7791 4192 7850 4197 7859
      4200 7858
TIME...MOT...LOC 0504Z 259DEG 24KT 4200 7844

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Lambert

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
125 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

PAZ036-063-064-280630-
Adams PA-Franklin PA-Cumberland PA-
125 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WESTERN ADAMS...EAST CENTRAL
FRANKLIN AND SOUTHWESTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THROUGH 230 AM EDT...

At 125 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Shippensburg to near Chambersburg.
Movement was southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Shippensburg, Boiling Springs, Fayetteville, Mount Holly Springs,
Cashtown, Aspers, Orrtanna, Walnut Bottom, Pine Grove Furnace,
Biglerville, Arendtsville, Bendersville, Fairfield, McKnightstown,
Idaville, Gardners, Shippensburg University, and Gettysburg College.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4015 7711 3989 7720 3976 7731 3991 7758
      4005 7755 4012 7751
TIME...MOT...LOC 0525Z 300DEG 12KT 4010 7744 3991 7750

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Lambert

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
141 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

PAZ005-280700-
McKean PA-
141 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MCKEAN COUNTY THROUGH 300 AM
EDT...

At 141 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Bradford to near Kane to near Johnsonburg.
Movement was east northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bradford, Port Allegany, Smethport, Betula, Rew, Coryville, Crosby,
Cyclone, Marshburg, Westline, Kinzua Bridge State Park, Mount Jewett,
Eldred, Lewis Run, Ceres, University Of Pittsburgh - Bradford, and
Bradford Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
these storms pass.

&&

LAT...LON 4162 7821 4161 7848 4163 7849 4162 7872
      4184 7888 4199 7891 4200 7821
TIME...MOT...LOC 0541Z 251DEG 18KT 4192 7877 4175 7866 4161 7864

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Lambert