Special Weather Statement, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
225 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Confidence is increasing for a few strong to severe storms this
afternoon (3 to 7 PM), generally along and east of the US-30 and I-
71 corridors. The forecast is also briefly trending drier across
much of the area between 9 PM and Midnight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms are likely this afternoon, mainly along
and east of the US-30 and I-71 corridors between 3 to 7 PM. Some
storms may be strong to severe with damaging wind gusts.

2) Periodic showers and thunderstorms will continue through Monday,
especially in the afternoon and evening hours. Heavy rain and
isolated flash flooding is possible.

3) Temperatures will return back to near normal into early next
week, before becoming slightly above normal towards mid to late
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
The latest surface and satellite observations reveal a boundary
roughly draped SW to NE along the I-71 corridor early this
afternoon, in addition to a developing lake breeze generally
along the I-90 corridor east of Cleveland. Anticipate an uptick
in showers and thunderstorms in this general area over the next
couple of hours before storms exit to the southeast. Attention
will then turn further south and southeast for potential
additional development closer to the US-30 corridor (still east
of I-71), later this afternoon and early evening as the boundary
becomes more W to E- oriented and stalls. Although for the most
part, deep layer shear is lacking, (25 to 30 knots located
across Northwest Pennsylvania), other thermodynamic parameters
(strong SBCAPE, DCAPE, and low-level lapse rates) remain
favorable for a damaging wind gust threat and perhaps some
organized clusters this afternoon and early evening, especially
across Northeast Ohio into Northwest Pennsylvania, mainly
between 3 and 7 PM.

In terms of precipitation coverage later this evening after 8 PM,
and particularly between 9 and Midnight, rain chances appear to be
decreasing across much of the area as stable air briefly enters the
region. Will still need to monitor the potential for residual
convective debris both from the north (Ontario/Lake Erie) and the
west (Indiana), though the overall trend appears to favor a briefly-
drier forecast during this timeframe.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The story over the next several days will be the potential for
mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms across
the region as a weak low pressure system gradually moves east
from the Midwest into the Ohio Valley through Monday. The main
concern with any showers and thunderstorms will be the heavy
rain threat, given a lack of steering flow less than 15 knots,
skinny CAPE profiles, and anomalously-high PWATs around 1.80
inches. Some isolated flash flooding (mainly rate-driven up to
2" per hour) is possible where storms persist, though given the
continued chances into Monday, will also need to monitor area
rivers for some minor rises. At this time, the overall severe
weather threat remains low Sunday into Monday given the lack of
flow, though can't rule out some isolated instances of wet
downbursts in the strongest cells.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
The Heat Advisory remains in effect across much of the area
into this evening as heat indices remain elevated in the 90s to
near 100. Anticipate a slight improvement in the overall weather
pattern over the next week as temperatures moderate back to
around normal (low to mid-80s), though maximum heat indices will
remain elevated in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Temperatures may
rise slightly above normal by mid to late week in the upper 80s
to near 90., though heat indices should remain below 100.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Showers and eventual storms are developing over northern Ohio
this afternoon and will expand in coverage over the next several
hours. The best areas for storms will be KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG
which are south of the lake breeze boundary and another surface
boundary moving through North Central Ohio. The best window for
impacts to a terminal will be 19z-23z. Storms should stay just
southeast of KCLE given the lake breeze. Later tonight, some
storms in Indiana should develop and may pass close to KTOL
after dark. There should then be some reprieve in convection
this evening into the first part of tonight. Then, a low
pressure system and cold front will start to move into the
region for Sunday and bring widespread rain to the region. There
could be some heavier rain that may bring some MVFR vsby and
ceilings around daybreak to most of the terminals. Some
backbuilding of rain with the low across the region is expected
and hard to give confidence when rain will end/break across the
region and have just kept TAFs simple with rain through the end
of the TAF period for most. Winds will shift to the west then
northwest with the boundaries moving through the area. Winds
will then vary overnight into Sunday with the low moving through
the region but should eventually settle on northeast flow for
Sunday.

Outlook...Weak low pressure and a cold front move across the
region Sunday and Monday, bringing occasional showers and
thunderstorms. Non-VFR ceilings and visibility also possible
Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
North to northwest flow will continue over the lake this
afternoon into this evening behind a lake breeze. A low pressure
system will enter for Sunday and northeast flow will develop
over the lake and strengthen to 15 kts and waves will build to 2
to 3 ft over the western and central basins. This unfavorable
flow will continue into Monday and weaken on Tuesday with winds
of 10 kts or less. High pressure will build from the west for
Wednesday and Thursday and switch winds back to southerly,
offshore flow. There is potential for a Small Craft Advisory
with the northeast flow for Sunday and Monday if winds can
increase just a touch from the current forecast.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ003-006>014-
     017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Kahn
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Sefcovic

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
214 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

OHZ003-006>014-017>019-089-051815-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-
Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Ashtabula Lakeshore-
214 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ020>023-027>033-036>038-047-051815-
Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-
Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
214 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 456 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-PAZ001-002-051815-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
214 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie and northwest
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ003-051815-
Crawford-
214 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 456 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1221 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 WSW West Farmington   41.37N 81.03W
07/03/2026                   Geauga             OH   Public

            Tree down on Farmington Road.

&&

Garuckas

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1226 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 ESE Broadview Heights 41.33N 81.67W
07/03/2026                   Cuyahoga           OH   Public

            Tree fell and took down power lines on Avery
            Road. Time estimated from radar.

&&

Garuckas

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
202 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

PAZ002-003-041830-
Southern Erie PA-Crawford PA-
202 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN ERIE AND
NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

At 202 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Riceville, or 25 miles northeast of Meadville, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Corry, Riceville, Canadohta Lake, Lincolnville, Spartansburg, and
Elgin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
northwestern Pennsylvania.

&&

LAT...LON 4174 7983 4192 7983 4193 7961 4173 7962
      4172 7962
TIME...MOT...LOC 1802Z 271DEG 24KT 4184 7973

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Sefcovic

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
255 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

OHZ029-037-047-041945-
Richland OH-Morrow OH-Knox OH-
255 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL RICHLAND...
NORTHEASTERN MORROW AND NORTHWESTERN KNOX COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM
EDT...

At 255 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mount Gilead, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fredericktown, Bellville, Chesterville, Waterford, and Shauck.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
north central Ohio.

&&

LAT...LON 4047 8280 4063 8280 4068 8247 4044 8247
TIME...MOT...LOC 1855Z 268DEG 16KT 4055 8275

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Sefcovic

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
313 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SSE Waite Hill        41.58N 81.38W
07/03/2026                   Lake               OH   Public

            An 18 foot long limb downed from a healthy
            oak tree. Time estimated from radar.

&&

Garuckas

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
321 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

OHZ032-038-041945-
Holmes OH-Stark OH-
321 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN STARK AND NORTHEASTERN
HOLMES COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

At 320 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Wilmot, or 12 miles northwest of Dover, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Brewster, Navarre, Waynesburg, East Sparta, Wilmot, Winesburg, and
Beach City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
northeastern Ohio.

&&

LAT...LON 4057 8176 4064 8176 4067 8174 4067 8165
      4071 8164 4073 8120 4072 8124 4065 8124
      4065 8144 4066 8144 4063 8167 4056 8167
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 269DEG 33KT 4064 8166

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Sefcovic