Severe Thunderstorm Warning 158, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
820 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A complex of severe thunderstorms has developed across northwest
Ohio and continues to push east. The primary hazard with these
storms is strong to damaging wind gusts to observed reports of
nearly 60 mph already recorded at Toledo Express Airport. As
this line pushes east, it should gradually begin to weaken. In
addition, there are some isolated storms ahead of the main line,
although these have primarily remained sub-severe at this point.
There is widespread, consistent lightning associated with all
storms so please seek shelter and stay weather aware.

The heat headlines will be re-issued for Saturday this evening
with a Heat Advisory for all Ohio counties. There will be no
extension to Northwest Pennsylvania counties and those will be
allowed to expire tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerous heat and humidity will continue today followed by
temperatures not as hot this weekend.

2) Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will return later
today with better opportunities for rainfall this weekend into
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Heat and humidity last into the holiday weekend. We will need to
issue a new Heat Advisory for the July 4th holiday though
confidence in sites reaching the criteria is slightly lower
compared to previous days. However, given the increased
vulnerability with the prolonged nature of this heat wave and
expected number of large outdoor gatherings, felt that a Heat
Advisory will be justified despite maximum heat index values
largely in the upper 90s. Drink plenty of water and avoid
caffeine and alcohol. Be sure to take regular breaks in air-
conditioned locations! For people without effective cooling,
especially heat-sensitive groups, this level of heat can be
deadly. High temperatures will return to more seasonable values
in the mid to upper 80s Sunday onward.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The upper level ridge will begin to breakdown as more zonal flow
takes over the weather pattern to begin the holiday weekend. Shower
and thunderstorm chances will be on the increase this
afternoon/evening. Hi-res guidance continues to hint at isolated to
scattered thunderstorms developing later today. Weak forcing
will likely lead to thunderstorms primarily initiating off of
lingering outflow boundaries. A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5)
remains in effect across the entire forecast area today given
the robust thermodynamic environment with MLCAPE values in
excess of 2500 J/kg and DCAPE of 1000+ J/kg. Primary hazard will
be damaging wind gusts in a few strong to severe clusters of
thunderstorms.

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible again on Saturday,
particularly in the afternoon and evening. There may be a bit
more upper level support as a shortwave moves overhead that will
trigger showers and storms in the afternoon. More robust
forcing comes Sunday and Monday as an upper trough digs across
the eastern Great Lakes which will likely increase coverage of
showers and thunderstorms to end the weekend and begin next
week.

Given the very moist airmass in place with PWATs of 1.5 to 2 inches
any thunderstorm that does develop will be capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall. There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for
Excessive rainfall both Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
The primary aviation concerns this evening and again on Saturday
evening will be the expected convection. Currently, a line of
convection extending from near Sandusky, OH southwest towards
Findlay, OH is producing diminish visibilities to 1-2SM and
strong winds with gusts up to 40 knots. KTOL has already been
impacted with storms on the doorstep of KFDY. This line is
expected to continue to move east but should gradually weaken as
the area begins to stabilize. Opted to handle all convection in
TEMPOs for each terminal with the general timing between now and
05Z. Behind this line of convection, some patchy fog is possible
given the weak overnight flow but given low confidence opted to
not include a mention in the TAF at this point.

For much of Saturday, widespread VFR conditions are anticipated
with FEW/SCT high cloud decks building in during the afternoon
hours. Near the end of this TAF period, another line of
convection is expected to move across the area, likely reducing
conditions to non-VFR again. Confidence in the timing and
placement of this second round is low given model divergence, so
opted to handle that with VCTS at this point.

Winds outside of the convection overnight will be light and
variable. These will gradually increase from the west-southwest
on Saturday afternoon to 8-12 knots with occasional gusts up to
15-20 knots. Winds may gain a bit more of a northern component
for KCLE and KERI Saturday afternoon which would be associated
with a weak lake breeze.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in occasional showers and
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. Non-VFR possible
Sunday evening into Monday morning with showers and
thunderstorms as a cold front moves through the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will be out of the southwest this afternoon at 5-15 knots
with waves generally 2 feet or less. Conditions should continue
through Saturday evening. There will be thunderstorms chances
through this weekend which could briefly increase winds and
waves within and around storms. Weak low pressure and a cold
front will pass over Lake Erie late Sunday night and shift winds
to be out of the east to northeast at 5-15 knots by Monday
morning. Waves could be choppy in the near shore with the
onshore flow, but should stay below 2 feet. High pressure begins
to build over the region late Monday and winds and waves will
begin to subside into Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Dangerous heat and humidity is expected again today. Record
warm high temperatures may be challenged. Here are those records
for each of our climate stations:

Date    Toledo         Mansfield      Cleveland      Akron          Youngstown     Erie
07-03   100(1911)      93(2020)       98(1949)       97(1911)       98(1898)       93(1934)
07-04   100(2012)      96(2012)       98(1990)       99(1911)       99(1897)       99(1990)

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ003-006>014-
     017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...04/13
AVIATION...04
MARINE...23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
823 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-050030-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
823 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-050030-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-
Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-
Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-
Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-
823 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe weather for the
entire area on Saturday with damaging wind gusts as the main threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ001>003-050030-
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-Crawford-
823 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Saturday heat index values on Saturday will remain in the low to mid
90s. Given this prolonged period of very warm temperatures, there is
still a potential for some heat related impacts especially to vulnerable
populations.

There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe weather for the
entire area on Saturday with damaging wind gusts as the main threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
725 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0636 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 1 W Harbor View         41.69N 83.47W
07/03/2026  M48 MPH          Lucas              OH   Buoy

            Buoy station THRO1 Toledo, OH. Peak wind 42
            knots.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
734 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 N Port Clinton        41.53N 82.94W
07/03/2026  M43 MPH          LEZ143             OH   Mesonet

            Mesonet station 45202 1 N Port Clinton. Peak
            wind 37 knots.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
736 PM EDT Fri Jul 3 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 2 N Port Clinton        41.53N 82.94W
07/03/2026  M43 MPH          LEZ143             OH   Mesonet

            Corrects previous tstm wnd gst report from 2
            N Port Clinton. Mesonet station 45202 1 N
            Port Clinton. Peak wind 37 knots.

&&

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