Severe Thunderstorm Warning 259, NWS Cleveland, OH

179 
WWUS51 KCLE 022230
SVSCLE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
630 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

PAC039-022239-
/O.CAN.KCLE.SV.W.0259.000000T0000Z-260902T2245Z/
Crawford PA-
630 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However, gusty winds are
still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight EDT for
northwestern Pennsylvania.

LAT...LON 4162 7982 4154 7993 4151 7998 4149 8000
      4149 8009 4148 8013 4148 8024 4159 8029
      4173 7986 4162 7978
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 258DEG 26KT 4157 7981 

$$

15

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
400 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The threat of severe storms has trended up for Northwest Pennsylvania
with an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for Erie County PA. This
includes a threat of damaging winds and potential for a tornado.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Several rounds of thunderstorms are possible through midday on
Friday. Thunderstorms may be strong to severe at times, including a
threat of heavy rain and flash flooding.

2) Hot and humid conditions are forecast to continue on
Thursday. Heat index values are forecast to be in the upper 90s
for another day in Northwest Ohio with upper 80s to lower 90s
forecast in Northeast Ohio.

3) Cooler and drier weather is expected for the holiday
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1... A broad ridge remains in place across the Mid-
Mississippi and Ohio Valley Regions. Hot and unstable conditions
remain in place with dewpoints in the low 70s and ML CAPE values of
2500-3000 J/kg. Temperatures of 10C at 700mb can be a good indicator
of a capped environment and this threshold extends to just north of
Mansfield in the west but south of Youngstown in the east. So far a
lack of forcing has been a limiting factor for thunderstorms this
afternoon but that could change this evening.

The active storm track extends around the periphery of the ridge
from Iowa across Central Lower Michigan to New York. We are seeing
some cu trying to build across the snowbelt region with isolated to
scattered storms possible in this area between 4-8 PM. The first
couple showers that have developed have struggled to grow
vertically. We will have to see if this initial activity has
strong enough updrafts to be severe. Later this evening, the
shortwave crossing lower Michigan will move towards New York and
expect the potential for scattered strong to severe storms to
move south into Northwest Pennsylvania, likely extending
westward into Ohio. Effective shear values will increase to 40+
knots this evening coupled with backed flow in the low levels
downwind of Lake Erie. The SPC has raised the severe weather
outlook across New York and extending into Erie County PA to an
Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) while a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5)
remains from nearly Toledo to Youngstown. Main time frame for
organized severe storms looks to be in the 7 PM - 11 PM window,
then settling south across Northeast Ohio overnight. A few of
the CAMs show another push of stronger storms late tonight
moving southeast along the boundary but confidence is low in
that occurrence.

The overnight activity will set the stage for Thursday as the ridge
axis shifts slightly westward with northwest flow aloft. Instability
will be very high again and expect to see scattered showers and
thunderstorms develop with daytime heating during the afternoon.
This could initially be focused from northwest to southeast across
the eastern counties of Ohio but think we will see an expansion of
storms across much of northern Ohio during the evening. Still many
options for how this will evolve but the potential for severe
thunderstorms and heavy rain will continue. PW values of around
2 inches will support heavy rainfall. Good coverage of
thunderstorms are likely to persist Thursday night as a stronger
shortwave trough finally crosses northern Ohio. Showers with
scattered thunderstorms may linger into Friday but will become
focused across Northwest Ohio by Saturday as the overall
longwave pattern transitions to northwest flow with a trough
over New England.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Temperatures will trend slightly cooler on Thursday as the boundary
settles south into the area. The hottest area will be along the I-75
corridor where highs will still be near 90 and heat index values
will reach the upper 90s. Given the potential for scattered showers
and thunderstorms along with partly cloudy skies, a Heat Advisory is
not planned for Thursday. This could change overnight if chances of
precipitation trend lower in the west or if more sun is expected.
Will see how the convection plays out first before deciding if
we need to an advisory for a few more counties.

KEY MESSAGE 3... High pressure will build south out of Canada on
Saturday and bring cooler and drier conditions through the Holiday
weekend. High temperatures will return to near normal values in the
upper 70s to near 80. Dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s will
bring lower humidity. A lower chance of precipitation will continue
along the I-75 corridor on Saturday with dry conditions in the
forecast Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
The airspace is starting with VFR conditions with some variable
cloudiness behind a round of storms in NE OH/NW PA this morning
and ahead of a developing line of storms in SE MI into Lower
Ontario. The line of storms to the northwest will fill in over
the next couple of hours as they move east-southeast across Lake
Erie into the airspace. The most likely impacts are going to be
at KERI, KYNG, and KCLE, although some convective activity could
reach KCAK, KMFD, and KTOL. Another line of convective activity
straddles further north across lower Michigan and will follow
east-southeast into the airspace later tonight, likely causing
some issues at similar terminals. There is lower confidence on
this round, as it will largely depend upon the first round
during the afternoon and evening hours.

There should be a reprieve in shower and storm activity during
the first part of the overnight hours, but additional shower and
storm activity is possible late tonight and again on Thursday.
Again, these are conditional on prior convective rounds. Any
thunderstorms over a terminal will have IFR potential.

Outlook... Non-VFR possible in shower and storm activity through
Thursday night.

&&

.MARINE...
The main marine concern over the next 36 hours will be several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the lake with the
potential for strong, damaging wind gusts and large hail. For
broader conditions outside of the storms, the lake is ahead of a
cold front this afternoon and will have southerly flow until the
cold front passes on Thursday evening. Some ridging will build
from the north for Friday and into the weekend and allow for
some elevated north to northeast flow. This flow could allow for
waves in the 2 to 3 ft range over the weekend, which would be a
problem for some moderate swimming risk for the western and
central basin beaches.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ003-006>014-
     017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Sefcovic

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
326 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

OHZ003-006>011-017>021-027>031-036-037-047-030730-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-
Medina-Summit-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Marion-Morrow-
Knox-
326 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today with
primary impacts of damaging winds and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ012>014-022-023-032-033-038-089-030730-
Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Portage-Trumbull-Stark-Mahoning-Holmes-
Ashtabula Lakeshore-
326 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this morning and
this afternoon into the late evening. Primary hazards will be
damaging wind gusts and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ001>003-030730-
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-Crawford-
326 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this morning and
this afternoon into the late evening. Primary hazards will be
damaging wind gusts and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-030730-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
326 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this morning and
this afternoon into the late evening. Primary hazards will be
damaging wind gusts and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
507 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 PM     Hail             3 ESE Meadville         41.64N 80.09W
09/02/2026  M1.25 Inch       Crawford           PA   Trained Spotter

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
508 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 PM     Hail             3 E Meadville           41.64N 80.09W
09/02/2026  E1.25 Inch       Crawford           PA   Public

            Report from mPING: Half Dollar (1.25 in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
512 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 SSE Meadville         41.59N 80.11W
09/02/2026                   Crawford           PA   911 Call Center

            Several trees down.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
527 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SE Meadville          41.63N 80.13W
09/02/2026                   Crawford           PA   911 Call Center

            Several trees down.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
536 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

OHZ013-022-023-022215-
Geauga OH-Portage OH-Trumbull OH-
536 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN TRUMBULL...
NORTHEASTERN PORTAGE AND SOUTHEASTERN GEAUGA COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM
EDT...

At 536 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mantua, or near Ravenna, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Warren, Newton Falls, Lordstown, Garrettsville, Mantua, West
Farmington, Leavittsburg, Aurora, Parkman, Windham, Hiram, Wayland,
South Canal, and Turnpike Interchange.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight EDT for
northeastern Ohio.

&&

LAT...LON 4116 8116 4128 8131 4144 8093 4116 8082
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 257DEG 18KT 4123 8117

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

15

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
539 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

PAZ003-022230-
Crawford PA-
539 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY
THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

At 538 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Atlantic, or 13 miles southwest of Meadville, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Meadville, Adamsville, Atlantic, Pymatuning Central, Cochranton,
Jamestown, Geneva, and Hartstown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight EDT for
northwestern Pennsylvania.

&&

LAT...LON 4149 8000 4149 8009 4148 8013 4148 8037
      4149 8038 4149 8050 4152 8052 4154 8052
      4167 8004 4153 7995
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 254DEG 22KT 4151 8033

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

15