Severe Thunderstorm Warning 253, NWS Cleveland, OH

822 
WWUS51 KCLE 021134
SVSCLE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
734 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

PAC049-021200-
/O.CON.KCLE.SV.W.0253.000000T0000Z-260902T1200Z/
Erie PA-
734 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN ERIE COUNTY...

At 734 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Waterford, or
11 miles south of Erie, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
         damage to trees and power lines.

Locations impacted include...
Corry, Union City, Waterford, Wattsburg, Mill Village, McKean, and
Elgin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4185 7995 4199 8023 4210 7976 4201 7976
      4200 7975 4200 7962 4199 7961 4186 7961
TIME...MOT...LOC 1134Z 308DEG 26KT 4196 8007 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Garuckas

353 
WWUS51 KCLE 021206
SVSCLE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
806 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

PAC049-021216-
/O.EXP.KCLE.SV.W.0253.000000T0000Z-260902T1200Z/
Erie PA-
806 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN ERIE COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 4185 7995 4199 8023 4210 7976 4201 7976
      4200 7975 4200 7962 4199 7961 4186 7961
TIME...MOT...LOC 1206Z 306DEG 35KT 4179 7976 

$$

Garuckas

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
319 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to the forecast with elevated heat risk and severe
weather the main impacts today and Thursday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Elevated heat risk conditions continue today for Ohio as heat
indices will be in the upper 90s to low 100s.

2) There will be severe weather potential across Northeastern Ohio
and Northwestern Pennsylvania this morning through overnight
tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Well above normal temperatures will continue today along with
increased dew points keeping heat indices in the upper 90s to low
100s. The upper level ridge continues to be in place across the
southern CONUS allowing for persistent west to southwesterly flow
across the region to continue today into the overnight. This will
push highs today a touch warmer into the low 90s with dew points
climbing into the low to mid 70s again. Heat indices as a result
will rise up into the upper 90s to low 100s. Portions of Western
Ohio will be warmer than to the east as there should be limited
precipitation and cloud cover for much of the day. For Cleveland
eastward, precipitation is expected this morning and again in the
evening, but there should be a long enough break in between to allow
for temperatures to climb quickly. For the Northwestern Pennsylvania
areas, they will be far enough east to were temperatures shouldn't
climb up into the 90s, therefore heat indices will be below advisory
criteria. With that being said, it still will feel hot with heat
indices in the mid 90s, and precautions should be taken as needed.
Overnight lows Wednesday into Thursday will still be elevated as
well into the low to mid 70s offering little relief. Heat risk will
stay elevated at a level 3 out of 4 for the entire CWA due to this.

Thursday will start to bring some relief to the region as a cold
front approaches from the north and more widespread precipitation is
expected at some point during the day. Western and Central Ohio will
still have elevated heat indices and heat risk though, as
precipitation will not have reached before peak heating. There is
some uncertainty in this as morning convection may be moving across
the area that would limit the high temperatures for the day. If the
convection does not pan out, then thinking is that an area from
roughly Wayne/Holmes northwest to Lucas will need an extension in
the advisory. The remainder of the eastern portions of the CWA
should have enough precipitation and cloud cover to keep
temperatures and heat indices down in the upper 80s and low to mid
90s respectively.

Temperatures will begin to regulate Friday into the weekend to more
seasonal as Canadian high pressure builds south into the region.
Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s with overnight lows in the
upper 50s to mid 60s through the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
More rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected this morning
through the overnight hours. For this morning, there is a shortwave
trough located over Southern Ontario that will push southeastward
into New York through the mid-morning. This will help support
scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning across Northeastern
Ohio and Northwestern Pennsylvania. There will be some instability
in place along with around 40 knots of bulk shear that, if storms
organize, could support damaging wind gusts. Will monitor upstream
in Southern Ontario and Eastern Michigan for storm formation, but
currently storms across Western Michigan have started to weaken and
the environment may not be suitable for thunderstorm development.

There will be a break in the showers and precipitation once the
shortwave moves eastward and the next shortwave enters the region
later this afternoon/evening. This will allow for instability to
build back to around 2000 J/kg and lapse rates of 7-7.5 C/km across
Eastern Ohio and Northwestern Pennsylvania. Bulk shear will also in
the neighborhood of 30-40 knots in that same region. Thunderstorm
development is possible ahead of the shortwave with a more linear
mode expected with the shortwave later in the evening. The western
extent of this feature is still uncertain and could reach as far
west as Cleveland. The highest confidence in thunderstorms currently
for this evening is across far Northeastern Ohio and in Northwestern
Pennsylvania. This is shown in SPC's Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook as
there is a slight risk (level 3 of 5) from a line from Toledo
southeast to Canton and eastward with higher probabilities for
severe winds in Northeastern Ohio and Northwestern Pennsylvania.
Damaging winds will be the main threat with todays storms, though
large hail will also be a factor with the increased lapse rates and
instability. A quick spin up tornado is also possible though 0-1 km
bulk shear is minimal, so the threat is on the low end.
Thunderstorms should exit to the southeast around midnight.
Given the warm, moist environment over the region, PWAT values
will be around 1.5-2.00" across the region. The will bring the
threat for heavy rain with any thunderstorms and could cause
isolated flooding issues if there are persistent rainfall over
and area.

Additional thunderstorms are possible early Thursday morning as well
though there is still a lot of uncertainty in where and the severity
of these as it will be dependent on the storms from Wednesday
evening. A cold front will approach from the north throughout the
day on Thursday that will bring more widespread precipitation to the
region. The severe weather threat will be more focused on Central
Ohio with the better instability and lapse rates, though can't rule
out any storms to become severe across the region ahead of the
front. The front will be slow to move to the south and should exit
by late Thursday night.

Lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday as another
shortwave moves through the region, though the severe threat should
be lower than previous days. High pressure builds into the region
from the north and should persist through the weekend with dry
weather expected.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Expect widespread VFR conditions tonight, with occasional
scattered high clouds, and patchy IFR/LIFR fog in/around the
Toledo terminals. Winds will remain light from the southwest.
Convection currently developing across portions of MI and WI
will intensify and push eastward overnight, dropping southeast
across Lake Erie prior to sunrise. Several rounds of convection
are likely as this feature crosses the region, and for that
reason have included TEMPO groups for -TSRA at CLE, ERI, and YNG
after 08Z. Strong to severe winds are possible with these
storms, as well as frequent lightning and small hail. Storms
are expected to move out of the area by 13Z.

The rest of the region will stay VFR with scattered to broken
high and mid level clouds passing through during the next 24
hours. South and southwest 5 to 10 knots are expected, with a
few gusts to 20 knots during the midday and afternoon hours.
Scattered convection will develop again during the afternoon
and evening across NE OH and NW PA, but uncertainty exists with
exact timing and location.

Outlook...A cold front will slowly move across the area from
the northeast towards the southwest on Thursday. Scattered
showers and storms will bring non-VFR conditions Wednesday
night through Thursday night. High pressure and fair weather
will return Friday into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds with good marine conditions are expected on
Lake Erie through midnight. There is some potential for stronger
thunderstorms to cross mainly the central and east half of Lake
Erie in the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday which could lead to
erratic wind and wave conditions. Another round of stronger
thunderstorms are also possible Wednesday night as a cold front
settles south.

A gradual wind shift to the north will occur by Thursday night
with winds decreasing into Friday. Northeast flow over the
weekend could result in some choppy conditions with waves of 3
feet or less.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ003-006>011-
     017>021-027>031-036-037-047.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for OHZ012>014-022-023-032-033-038-089.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...27
MARINE...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
326 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

OHZ003-006>011-017>021-027>031-036-037-047-030730-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-
Medina-Summit-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Marion-Morrow-
Knox-
326 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today with
primary impacts of damaging winds and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ012>014-022-023-032-033-038-089-030730-
Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Portage-Trumbull-Stark-Mahoning-Holmes-
Ashtabula Lakeshore-
326 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this morning and
this afternoon into the late evening. Primary hazards will be
damaging wind gusts and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ001>003-030730-
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-Crawford-
326 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this morning and
this afternoon into the late evening. Primary hazards will be
damaging wind gusts and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-030730-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
326 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this morning and
this afternoon into the late evening. Primary hazards will be
damaging wind gusts and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
631 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 AM     Marine Tstm Wind 25 NNW North Kingsville 42.25N 80.84W
09/02/2026  M42 MPH          LEZ168             OH   Ship

            Ship observation of 36.2kts.

&&

dgb