Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Cleveland, OH

856 
WGUS71 KCLE 021358
FFSCLE

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
958 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

PAC049-021600-
/O.CON.KCLE.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-260902T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Erie PA-
958 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR
CENTRAL ERIE COUNTY...

At 958 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain have
fallen. Flooding impacts will continue, but no additional rainfall is
expected. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Erie, North East, Northwest Harborcreek, Harborcreek, Lawrence
  Park, Wesleyville and Northwest Harborcr.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 4208 8023 4211 8016 4216 8012 4218 8008
      4216 8006 4227 7976 4201 7976 4201 8008

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Sullivan

158 
WGUS71 KCLE 021448
FFSCLE

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1048 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

PAC049-021458-
/O.CAN.KCLE.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-260902T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Erie PA-
1048 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN ERIE
COUNTY...

Flood waters have receded. The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no
longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining
road closures.

&&

LAT...LON 4208 8023 4211 8016 4216 8012 4218 8008
      4216 8006 4227 7976 4201 7976 4201 8008

$$

Sullivan

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
741 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to the forecast with elevated heat risk and severe
weather the main impacts today and Thursday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Elevated heat risk conditions continue today for Ohio as heat
indices will be in the upper 90s to low 100s.

2) There will be severe weather potential across Northeastern Ohio
and Northwestern Pennsylvania this morning through overnight
tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Well above normal temperatures will continue today along with
increased dew points keeping heat indices in the upper 90s to low
100s. The upper level ridge continues to be in place across the
southern CONUS allowing for persistent west to southwesterly flow
across the region to continue today into the overnight. This will
push highs today a touch warmer into the low 90s with dew points
climbing into the low to mid 70s again. Heat indices as a result
will rise up into the upper 90s to low 100s. Portions of Western
Ohio will be warmer than to the east as there should be limited
precipitation and cloud cover for much of the day. For Cleveland
eastward, precipitation is expected this morning and again in the
evening, but there should be a long enough break in between to allow
for temperatures to climb quickly. For the Northwestern Pennsylvania
areas, they will be far enough east to were temperatures shouldn't
climb up into the 90s, therefore heat indices will be below advisory
criteria. With that being said, it still will feel hot with heat
indices in the mid 90s, and precautions should be taken as needed.
Overnight lows Wednesday into Thursday will still be elevated as
well into the low to mid 70s offering little relief. Heat risk will
stay elevated at a level 3 out of 4 for the entire CWA due to this.

Thursday will start to bring some relief to the region as a cold
front approaches from the north and more widespread precipitation is
expected at some point during the day. Western and Central Ohio will
still have elevated heat indices and heat risk though, as
precipitation will not have reached before peak heating. There is
some uncertainty in this as morning convection may be moving across
the area that would limit the high temperatures for the day. If the
convection does not pan out, then thinking is that an area from
roughly Wayne/Holmes northwest to Lucas will need an extension in
the advisory. The remainder of the eastern portions of the CWA
should have enough precipitation and cloud cover to keep
temperatures and heat indices down in the upper 80s and low to mid
90s respectively.

Temperatures will begin to regulate Friday into the weekend to more
seasonal as Canadian high pressure builds south into the region.
Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s with overnight lows in the
upper 50s to mid 60s through the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
More rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected this morning
through the overnight hours. For this morning, there is a shortwave
trough located over Southern Ontario that will push southeastward
into New York through the mid-morning. This will help support
scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning across Northeastern
Ohio and Northwestern Pennsylvania. There will be some instability
in place along with around 40 knots of bulk shear that, if storms
organize, could support damaging wind gusts. Will monitor upstream
in Southern Ontario and Eastern Michigan for storm formation, but
currently storms across Western Michigan have started to weaken and
the environment may not be suitable for thunderstorm development.

There will be a break in the showers and precipitation once the
shortwave moves eastward and the next shortwave enters the region
later this afternoon/evening. This will allow for instability to
build back to around 2000 J/kg and lapse rates of 7-7.5 C/km across
Eastern Ohio and Northwestern Pennsylvania. Bulk shear will also in
the neighborhood of 30-40 knots in that same region. Thunderstorm
development is possible ahead of the shortwave with a more linear
mode expected with the shortwave later in the evening. The western
extent of this feature is still uncertain and could reach as far
west as Cleveland. The highest confidence in thunderstorms currently
for this evening is across far Northeastern Ohio and in Northwestern
Pennsylvania. This is shown in SPC's Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook as
there is a slight risk (level 3 of 5) from a line from Toledo
southeast to Canton and eastward with higher probabilities for
severe winds in Northeastern Ohio and Northwestern Pennsylvania.
Damaging winds will be the main threat with todays storms, though
large hail will also be a factor with the increased lapse rates and
instability. A quick spin up tornado is also possible though 0-1 km
bulk shear is minimal, so the threat is on the low end.
Thunderstorms should exit to the southeast around midnight.
Given the warm, moist environment over the region, PWAT values
will be around 1.5-2.00" across the region. The will bring the
threat for heavy rain with any thunderstorms and could cause
isolated flooding issues if there are persistent rainfall over
and area.

Additional thunderstorms are possible early Thursday morning as well
though there is still a lot of uncertainty in where and the severity
of these as it will be dependent on the storms from Wednesday
evening. A cold front will approach from the north throughout the
day on Thursday that will bring more widespread precipitation to the
region. The severe weather threat will be more focused on Central
Ohio with the better instability and lapse rates, though can't rule
out any storms to become severe across the region ahead of the
front. The front will be slow to move to the south and should exit
by late Thursday night.

Lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday as another
shortwave moves through the region, though the severe threat should
be lower than previous days. High pressure builds into the region
from the north and should persist through the weekend with dry
weather expected.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Several rounds of convection are likely this morning across NE
OH and NW PA as clusters of thunderstorms over Lake Erie come
ashore. Strong to severe winds are possible with these storms,
as well as frequent lightning and hail. Storms are expected to
move out of the area by late morning, but a second round of
scattered convection will develop this afternoon and evening
across in roughly the same locations. At this time, uncertainty
exists as to the exact timing and location of these storms.

The rest of the region will stay VFR with scattered to broken
high and mid level clouds. South and southwest 5 to 10 knots
are expected, with a few gusts to 20 knots during the afternoon
hours.

Outlook...A cold front will slowly move across the area from
the northeast towards the southwest on Thursday. Scattered
showers and storms will bring non-VFR conditions Wednesday
night through Thursday night. High pressure and fair weather
will return Friday into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Severe storms have made their way across eastern Lake Erie and
into the coastal waters this morning, with several rounds of
storms likely across the lake today and tonight as a cold front
eventually drops south. Wind gusts up to 40 knots are possible
in the strongest storms. Outside of thunderstorms, southwest
winds with 1-3 foot waves are expected.

A gradual wind shift to the north will occur by Thursday night
behind the cold front, with winds diminishing Friday. Northeast
flow over the weekend could result in some choppy conditions
with waves of 1-3 feet.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ003-006>011-
     017>021-027>031-036-037-047.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for OHZ012>014-022-023-032-033-038-089.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...27
MARINE...10/27

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
326 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

OHZ003-006>011-017>021-027>031-036-037-047-030730-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-
Medina-Summit-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Marion-Morrow-
Knox-
326 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today with
primary impacts of damaging winds and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ012>014-022-023-032-033-038-089-030730-
Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Portage-Trumbull-Stark-Mahoning-Holmes-
Ashtabula Lakeshore-
326 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this morning and
this afternoon into the late evening. Primary hazards will be
damaging wind gusts and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ001>003-030730-
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-Crawford-
326 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this morning and
this afternoon into the late evening. Primary hazards will be
damaging wind gusts and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-030730-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
326 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this morning and
this afternoon into the late evening. Primary hazards will be
damaging wind gusts and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
631 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 AM     Marine Tstm Wind 25 NNW North Kingsville 42.25N 80.84W
09/02/2026  M42 MPH          LEZ168             OH   Ship

            Ship observation of 36.2kts.

&&

dgb

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
715 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 AM     Flood            1 NE Lawrence Park      42.16N 80.01W
09/02/2026                   Erie               PA   Law Enforcement

            Law enforcement reports flooding over East
            Lake Rd between Nagle Rd and Dale Dr.

&&

dgb

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
730 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0713 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Wattsburg               42.01N 79.81W
09/02/2026                   Erie               PA   911 Call Center

            Tree downed on a car in Wattsburg.

&&

JS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
746 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 AM     Marine Tstm Wind 4 NNE Conneaut          41.98N 80.56W
09/02/2026  M52 MPH          LEZ149             OH   C-Man Station

            Mesonet station XCON Conneaut Light.

&&

JS