Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
217 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Adjusted the key messages to highlight the higher showers and
storm coverage into early next week. Aviation discussion
updated for 18z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1. Scattered storms expected Friday and Saturday afternoons
  with widespread showers and storms Sunday and Monday
  associated with a front.

- 2. Hot, humid and breezy conditions continue with cooler
  conditions associated with the front late weekend into next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Scattered storms expected Friday and Saturday
afternoons with widespread showers and storms Sunday and Monday
associated with a front.

Today, latest RAP indicates a highly unstable environment with
MLCAPE already exceeding 2000 J/kg over the entire forecast
area. Convergence along a Lee side trough has already allowed
storms to develop in the western portion of the forecast area
with storms developing in the south as well. Coverage will
continue to increase into the afternoon and while low level
shear remains lacking, strengthening winds in the upper levels
will likely allow for a bit stronger organization through the
afternoon. SPC has continued a marginal risk for the entire area
today for a damaging wind threat with very strong low level
lapse rates and DCAPE nearing approaching 1000 J/kg, creating a
favorable strong to potentially severe downburst environment. Freezing
levels remain exceptionally high, even for this time of year
limiting any hail threat. A flattening 500mb trough tonight
may be able to sustain some convection into the evening and
overnight but will a loss of daytime heating, coverage will
continue to decrease into tonight.

Tomorrow scattered storms expected once again with coverage
similar or slightly higher with a bit stronger upper level
support as the weak ridging that we remained somewhat under the
influence shifts to the east and weak shortwaves move through a
more zonal flow. In addition, PWATs expected to increase with
SPC HREF mean showing values greater than 2 inches over most of
the forecast area. Environment may be slightly weaker to support
severe storms based on HiRes forecast soundings with weaker
cloud layer shear and not quite as unstable an environment but
we remain in a marginal risk for tomorrow with the potential for
a few storms to produce strong to marginally severe wind gusts.

As a front approaches the area Sunday into Monday, blended
guidance supports widespread showers and storms near the front
each day, favoring the afternoons where moderate instability
will develop. While widespread severe weather is not expected,
especially Monday where instability may struggle to develop, a
few storms could approach severe limits. Storms will likely have
efficient rain rates, although flow will be sufficient enough to
cause major flooding concerns. It will be worth monitoring
potential training with the flow generally parallel to the
front. Ensemble means favor drier air pushing into the area by
the middle of next week.

Key Message 2: Hot, humid and breezy conditions continue with
cooler conditions associated with the front late weekend into
next week.

Hot, humid and breezy conditions continue with the hottest days
of the period expected to be today and tomorrow. The increased
convective coverage both today and tomorrow may limit the extent
of our high temperature and heat index but continue to expect
triple digit heat indices for today and tomorrow with highs in
the mid to upper 90s and dew points remaining in the 70s.
Blended guidance IQR continues to favor lower temperatures
associated with the approaching front and widespread clouds and
convection each day. Given the recent hot weather, the NBM
takes that into account and will likely have a warm bias. So, I
would not be surprised if we end up toward the cooler end of the
IQR. This air mass will be very humid, with blended dew points
continuing in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period except for
diurnal convection which may result in temporary restrictions.

Convection has begun developing across the forecast area as
temps have warmed into the low to mid 90s across the area.
Scattered to broken cloud cover is noted especially at the
northern sites. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop across the area as the afternoon progresses, first at
the Columbia sites and then towards the Augusta and Orangeburg
sites. Thunderstorms may be strong, leading to primarily brief
visibility restrictions under them. The strongest storms may
bring wind gusts of 30-40 knots as well. Thunderstorm activity
is likely to persist into the evening before waning overnight
tonight, with debris cloudiness hanging around through early
morning. If AGS and OGB get any substantial rain today,
expecting that shallow ground fog will be a problem early on
tomorrow morning there. As we get into the day tomorrow, clouds
should develop quickly by late morning with showers and
thunderstorms redeveloping by the end of this period. Winds will
likely be breezy out of the southwest while the sun is up, so
expect gusts to 20 knots through 00z this evening, with 4-8
knots expected overnight, and the gustiness returning after 15z
Saturday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing chances for afternoon
storms this weekend and into early next week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...PL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Columbia SC
311 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Lincolnton              33.79N 82.48W
07/10/2026                   Lincoln            GA   911 Call Center

            Lincoln County dispatch reported trees and
            power lines down within the city limits of
            Lincolnton.

&&

CRL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
313 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

GAZ040-064-SCZ018-025>027-030-102000-
Lincoln GA-Columbia GA-Lexington SC-Aiken SC-McCormick SC-Saluda SC-
Edgefield SC-
313 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Columbia, eastern Lincoln, Edgefield, west central Lexington, south
central Saluda, northwestern Aiken and southeastern McCormick
Counties through 400 PM EDT...

At 313 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Edgefield, or 13 miles north of Belvedere, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Aiken, Edgefield, Johnston, Ridge Spring, USC Aiken, Clarks Hill
Recreation Area, Edgefield County Airport, J. Strom Thurmond Dam,
Hamilton Branch State Park, Aiken Municipal Airport, Monetta,
Trenton, Parksville, Ward, Strom Thurmond High School, Modoc, Scott's
Landing, Wildwood Park, Cleora, and Modoc Boat Ramp.

This includes Interstate 20 in South Carolina between mile markers 8
and 33.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3361 8231 3384 8225 3388 8152 3355 8151
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 266DEG 18KT 3373 8201

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

PL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
327 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

SCZ016-115-116-102000-
Northern Lancaster SC-Chesterfield SC-Southern Lancaster SC-
327 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern
Lancaster and northwestern Chesterfield Counties through 400 PM
EDT...

At 327 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Southwest Charlotte to near Lesslie. Movement
was east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Indian Land, Waxhaw, Pageland, Andrew Jackson State Park, Van Wyck,
Unity Fire Station, Carolina Commons Shopping Center, and Community
of Almond Glen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3493 8078 3482 8079 3480 7994 3478 8087
      3483 8090 3484 8087 3490 8088 3493 8086
      3501 8091 3504 8090 3507 8091 3507 8090
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 267DEG 48KT 3512 8091 3490 8101

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

PL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
344 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

GAZ063>065-077-SCZ018-025-030-102015-
Burke GA-Richmond GA-McDuffie GA-Columbia GA-Aiken SC-McCormick SC-
Edgefield SC-
344 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
McDuffie, Columbia, north central Burke, Richmond, southwestern
Edgefield, southwestern Aiken and southeastern McCormick Counties
through 415 PM EDT...

At 343 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Harlem, or 7 miles west of Grovetown, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Aiken, North Augusta, Grovetown, Evans, Martinez, Fort Gordon,
Augusta, Clearwater, Belvedere, Hephzibah, Harlem, Jackson, Appling,
Glendale, South Augusta, Midtown, Riverwood, Summerville, Augusta
Mall, and Daniel Field.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 20 in Georgia between mile markers 175 and 201.
 Interstate 20 in South Carolina between mile markers 0 and 9.
 Interstate 520 in Georgia between mile markers 1 and 15.
 Interstate 520 in South Carolina between mile markers 16 and 23.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3355 8246 3361 8231 3359 8173 3324 8182
      3327 8228 3330 8231 3331 8234 3331 8239
      3334 8244 3334 8248
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 269DEG 22KT 3345 8232

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

PL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
406 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

SCZ027-028-030-037-135-136-102045-
Central Orangeburg SC-Lexington SC-Aiken SC-Calhoun SC-Richland SC-
Northwestern Orangeburg SC-
406 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Calhoun, southern Lexington, northeastern Aiken, northwestern
Orangeburg and southern Richland Counties through 445 PM EDT...

At 406 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles northeast of Aiken State Park, or 18 miles southeast of
Batesburg-Leesville, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Gaston, Sandy Run, Swansea, Wagener, North, Pelion, Salley, Neeses,
Perry, Woodford, Livingston, Perry Airport, Lexington County Airport
At Pelion, Thor, and Steedman.

This includes Interstate 26 between mile markers 125 and 140.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3357 8149 3379 8147 3382 8087 3353 8087
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 266DEG 21KT 3368 8137

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

PL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
411 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

SCZ020-026>028-102045-
Lexington SC-Newberry SC-Richland SC-Saluda SC-
411 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Newberry, northern Lexington, northeastern Saluda and west central
Richland Counties through 445 PM EDT...

At 411 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong outflow winds
from a severe thunderstorm near Dreher Island State Park, or 13
miles southeast of Newberry, moving east at 25 mph.

...Boaters on Lake Murray Should Seek Safe Harbor...

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Columbia, Lexington, West Columbia, Cayce, Irmo, Forest Acres, St.
Andrews, Highway 6 at Lake Murray Dam, Dentsville, Oak Grove, Arcadia
Lakes, Columbia International University, Harbison State Forest,
Riverbanks Zoo, West Columbia Riverwalk, Ballentine, Dreher Island
State Park, Five Points, SC State Fair Grounds, and Cedar Grove Fire
Station.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 126 between mile markers 0 and 3.
 Interstate 20 in South Carolina between mile markers 57 and 73.
 Interstate 26 between mile markers 99 and 113.
 Interstate 77 between mile markers 18 and 19.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3407 8172 3416 8156 3411 8093 3394 8105
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 291DEG 23KT 3412 8148

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

PL