Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
217 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Adjusted the key messages to highlight the higher showers and
storm coverage into early next week. Aviation discussion
updated for 18z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1. Scattered storms expected Friday and Saturday afternoons
  with widespread showers and storms Sunday and Monday
  associated with a front.

- 2. Hot, humid and breezy conditions continue with cooler
  conditions associated with the front late weekend into next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Scattered storms expected Friday and Saturday
afternoons with widespread showers and storms Sunday and Monday
associated with a front.

Today, latest RAP indicates a highly unstable environment with
MLCAPE already exceeding 2000 J/kg over the entire forecast
area. Convergence along a Lee side trough has already allowed
storms to develop in the western portion of the forecast area
with storms developing in the south as well. Coverage will
continue to increase into the afternoon and while low level
shear remains lacking, strengthening winds in the upper levels
will likely allow for a bit stronger organization through the
afternoon. SPC has continued a marginal risk for the entire area
today for a damaging wind threat with very strong low level
lapse rates and DCAPE nearing approaching 1000 J/kg, creating a
favorable strong to potentially severe downburst environment. Freezing
levels remain exceptionally high, even for this time of year
limiting any hail threat. A flattening 500mb trough tonight
may be able to sustain some convection into the evening and
overnight but will a loss of daytime heating, coverage will
continue to decrease into tonight.

Tomorrow scattered storms expected once again with coverage
similar or slightly higher with a bit stronger upper level
support as the weak ridging that we remained somewhat under the
influence shifts to the east and weak shortwaves move through a
more zonal flow. In addition, PWATs expected to increase with
SPC HREF mean showing values greater than 2 inches over most of
the forecast area. Environment may be slightly weaker to support
severe storms based on HiRes forecast soundings with weaker
cloud layer shear and not quite as unstable an environment but
we remain in a marginal risk for tomorrow with the potential for
a few storms to produce strong to marginally severe wind gusts.

As a front approaches the area Sunday into Monday, blended
guidance supports widespread showers and storms near the front
each day, favoring the afternoons where moderate instability
will develop. While widespread severe weather is not expected,
especially Monday where instability may struggle to develop, a
few storms could approach severe limits. Storms will likely have
efficient rain rates, although flow will be sufficient enough to
cause major flooding concerns. It will be worth monitoring
potential training with the flow generally parallel to the
front. Ensemble means favor drier air pushing into the area by
the middle of next week.

Key Message 2: Hot, humid and breezy conditions continue with
cooler conditions associated with the front late weekend into
next week.

Hot, humid and breezy conditions continue with the hottest days
of the period expected to be today and tomorrow. The increased
convective coverage both today and tomorrow may limit the extent
of our high temperature and heat index but continue to expect
triple digit heat indices for today and tomorrow with highs in
the mid to upper 90s and dew points remaining in the 70s.
Blended guidance IQR continues to favor lower temperatures
associated with the approaching front and widespread clouds and
convection each day. Given the recent hot weather, the NBM
takes that into account and will likely have a warm bias. So, I
would not be surprised if we end up toward the cooler end of the
IQR. This air mass will be very humid, with blended dew points
continuing in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period except for
diurnal convection which may result in temporary restrictions.

Convection has begun developing across the forecast area as
temps have warmed into the low to mid 90s across the area.
Scattered to broken cloud cover is noted especially at the
northern sites. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop across the area as the afternoon progresses, first at
the Columbia sites and then towards the Augusta and Orangeburg
sites. Thunderstorms may be strong, leading to primarily brief
visibility restrictions under them. The strongest storms may
bring wind gusts of 30-40 knots as well. Thunderstorm activity
is likely to persist into the evening before waning overnight
tonight, with debris cloudiness hanging around through early
morning. If AGS and OGB get any substantial rain today,
expecting that shallow ground fog will be a problem early on
tomorrow morning there. As we get into the day tomorrow, clouds
should develop quickly by late morning with showers and
thunderstorms redeveloping by the end of this period. Winds will
likely be breezy out of the southwest while the sun is up, so
expect gusts to 20 knots through 00z this evening, with 4-8
knots expected overnight, and the gustiness returning after 15z
Saturday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing chances for afternoon
storms this weekend and into early next week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...PL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
112 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

SCZ018-025-026-101800-
McCormick SC-Saluda SC-Edgefield SC-
112 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Edgefield, southwestern Saluda and northeastern McCormick Counties
through 200 PM EDT...

At 112 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mccormick County Airport, or 21 miles south of Greenwood, moving east
at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Edgefield, McCormick, Plum Branch, Strom Thurmond High School,
Cleora, Pleasant Lane, Whitetown, Northside Fire Station Main, and
Edgefield Federal Correction Institution.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3399 8224 3399 8221 3397 8218 3399 8215
      3398 8205 3396 8205 3396 8201 3400 8199
      3400 8184 3374 8187 3381 8228
TIME...MOT...LOC 1712Z 279DEG 14KT 3388 8218

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

PL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
213 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

GAZ040-063-064-SCZ018-025-026-101845-
McDuffie GA-Lincoln GA-Columbia GA-McCormick SC-Saluda SC-
Edgefield SC-
213 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
McDuffie, northwestern Columbia, Lincoln, northwestern Edgefield,
western Saluda and McCormick Counties through 245 PM EDT...

At 213 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bobby Brown State Park, or 14 miles northeast of Washington, moving
east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
McCormick, Lincolnton, Elijah Clark State Park, Mccormick County
Airport, Hamilton Branch State Park, Lake Strom Thurmond, Bobby Brown
State Park, Bradley, Parksville, Plum Branch, Bordeaux, Broad River
Campground, Knox Scout Reservation, Double Branches, Curry Hill,
Cleora, Chennault, Modoc Boat Ramp, New Hope, and Long Cane Creek
Picnic Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3364 8261 3365 8249 3382 8259 3386 8257
      3386 8261 3398 8265 3398 8261 3396 8257
      3402 8259 3407 8253 3406 8233 3397 8230
      3402 8224 3398 8220 3398 8205 3395 8203
      3400 8198 3383 8191 3357 8263 3360 8265
TIME...MOT...LOC 1813Z 256DEG 25KT 3389 8257

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

DH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
234 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

SCZ020>022-026>028-101915-
Fairfield SC-Lexington SC-Newberry SC-Richland SC-Kershaw SC-
Saluda SC-
234 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Fairfield, southern Newberry, central Lexington, east central Saluda,
Richland and western Kershaw Counties through 315 PM EDT...

At 234 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Highway 6 at Lake Murray Dam, moving east at 20 mph.

...Boaters on Lake Murray Should Seek Safe Harbor...

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Columbia, Lexington, West Columbia, Cayce, Irmo, Forest Acres,
Batesburg-Leesville, Springdale, St. Andrews, Dentsville, Oak Grove,
McEntire Air Base, Highway 6 at Lake Murray Dam, Red Bank, South
Congaree, Pine Ridge, Arcadia Lakes, Columbia International
University, Harbison State Forest, and Sesquicentennial State Park.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 126 between mile markers 0 and 3.
 Interstate 20 in South Carolina between mile markers 45 and 84.
 Interstate 26 between mile markers 93 and 119.
 Interstate 77 between mile markers 0 and 28.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3387 8152 3413 8148 3427 8083 3389 8074
TIME...MOT...LOC 1834Z 265DEG 16KT 3403 8128

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

PL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
249 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

GAZ040-063>065-SCZ018-025-030-101930-
Richmond GA-McDuffie GA-Lincoln GA-Columbia GA-Aiken SC-McCormick SC-
Edgefield SC-
249 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
McDuffie, Columbia, southeastern Lincoln, north central Richmond,
southwestern Edgefield, western Aiken and southeastern McCormick
Counties through 330 PM EDT...

At 249 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Mistletoe State Park, or 12 miles north of Thomson,
moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
North Augusta, Evans, Thomson, Martinez, Appling, Clarks Hill
Recreation Area, Riverwood, Mistletoe State Park, Wrightsboro,
Village Plaza Shopping Center, Augusta National Golf Club, J. Strom
Thurmond Dam, Thomson-McDuffie County Airport, West End Augusta,
Poverty Hill, Thomson Fire Department, Scott's Landing, McDuffie
Regional Medical Center, Savannah Bluffs Heritage Preserve, and
Wildwood Park.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 20 in Georgia between mile markers 167 and 201.
 Interstate 20 in South Carolina between mile markers 0 and 2.
 Interstate 520 in Georgia near mile marker 1.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3361 8263 3364 8261 3363 8261 3364 8259
      3363 8258 3365 8258 3364 8256 3364 8252
      3366 8251 3365 8249 3373 8253 3376 8200
      3348 8197 3345 8258 3360 8265
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 266DEG 18KT 3364 8251

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

PL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Columbia SC
311 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Lincolnton              33.79N 82.48W
07/10/2026                   Lincoln            GA   911 Call Center

            Lincoln County dispatch reported trees and
            power lines down within the city limits of
            Lincolnton.

&&

CRL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
313 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

GAZ040-064-SCZ018-025>027-030-102000-
Lincoln GA-Columbia GA-Lexington SC-Aiken SC-McCormick SC-Saluda SC-
Edgefield SC-
313 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Columbia, eastern Lincoln, Edgefield, west central Lexington, south
central Saluda, northwestern Aiken and southeastern McCormick
Counties through 400 PM EDT...

At 313 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Edgefield, or 13 miles north of Belvedere, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Aiken, Edgefield, Johnston, Ridge Spring, USC Aiken, Clarks Hill
Recreation Area, Edgefield County Airport, J. Strom Thurmond Dam,
Hamilton Branch State Park, Aiken Municipal Airport, Monetta,
Trenton, Parksville, Ward, Strom Thurmond High School, Modoc, Scott's
Landing, Wildwood Park, Cleora, and Modoc Boat Ramp.

This includes Interstate 20 in South Carolina between mile markers 8
and 33.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3361 8231 3384 8225 3388 8152 3355 8151
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 266DEG 18KT 3373 8201

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

PL