Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
217 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Adjusted the key messages to highlight the higher showers and
storm coverage into early next week. Aviation discussion
updated for 18z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1. Scattered storms expected Friday and Saturday afternoons
  with widespread showers and storms Sunday and Monday
  associated with a front.

- 2. Hot, humid and breezy conditions continue with cooler
  conditions associated with the front late weekend into next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Scattered storms expected Friday and Saturday
afternoons with widespread showers and storms Sunday and Monday
associated with a front.

Today, latest RAP indicates a highly unstable environment with
MLCAPE already exceeding 2000 J/kg over the entire forecast
area. Convergence along a Lee side trough has already allowed
storms to develop in the western portion of the forecast area
with storms developing in the south as well. Coverage will
continue to increase into the afternoon and while low level
shear remains lacking, strengthening winds in the upper levels
will likely allow for a bit stronger organization through the
afternoon. SPC has continued a marginal risk for the entire area
today for a damaging wind threat with very strong low level
lapse rates and DCAPE nearing approaching 1000 J/kg, creating a
favorable strong to potentially severe downburst environment. Freezing
levels remain exceptionally high, even for this time of year
limiting any hail threat. A flattening 500mb trough tonight
may be able to sustain some convection into the evening and
overnight but will a loss of daytime heating, coverage will
continue to decrease into tonight.

Tomorrow scattered storms expected once again with coverage
similar or slightly higher with a bit stronger upper level
support as the weak ridging that we remained somewhat under the
influence shifts to the east and weak shortwaves move through a
more zonal flow. In addition, PWATs expected to increase with
SPC HREF mean showing values greater than 2 inches over most of
the forecast area. Environment may be slightly weaker to support
severe storms based on HiRes forecast soundings with weaker
cloud layer shear and not quite as unstable an environment but
we remain in a marginal risk for tomorrow with the potential for
a few storms to produce strong to marginally severe wind gusts.

As a front approaches the area Sunday into Monday, blended
guidance supports widespread showers and storms near the front
each day, favoring the afternoons where moderate instability
will develop. While widespread severe weather is not expected,
especially Monday where instability may struggle to develop, a
few storms could approach severe limits. Storms will likely have
efficient rain rates, although flow will be sufficient enough to
cause major flooding concerns. It will be worth monitoring
potential training with the flow generally parallel to the
front. Ensemble means favor drier air pushing into the area by
the middle of next week.

Key Message 2: Hot, humid and breezy conditions continue with
cooler conditions associated with the front late weekend into
next week.

Hot, humid and breezy conditions continue with the hottest days
of the period expected to be today and tomorrow. The increased
convective coverage both today and tomorrow may limit the extent
of our high temperature and heat index but continue to expect
triple digit heat indices for today and tomorrow with highs in
the mid to upper 90s and dew points remaining in the 70s.
Blended guidance IQR continues to favor lower temperatures
associated with the approaching front and widespread clouds and
convection each day. Given the recent hot weather, the NBM
takes that into account and will likely have a warm bias. So, I
would not be surprised if we end up toward the cooler end of the
IQR. This air mass will be very humid, with blended dew points
continuing in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period except for
diurnal convection which may result in temporary restrictions.

Convection has begun developing across the forecast area as
temps have warmed into the low to mid 90s across the area.
Scattered to broken cloud cover is noted especially at the
northern sites. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop across the area as the afternoon progresses, first at
the Columbia sites and then towards the Augusta and Orangeburg
sites. Thunderstorms may be strong, leading to primarily brief
visibility restrictions under them. The strongest storms may
bring wind gusts of 30-40 knots as well. Thunderstorm activity
is likely to persist into the evening before waning overnight
tonight, with debris cloudiness hanging around through early
morning. If AGS and OGB get any substantial rain today,
expecting that shallow ground fog will be a problem early on
tomorrow morning there. As we get into the day tomorrow, clouds
should develop quickly by late morning with showers and
thunderstorms redeveloping by the end of this period. Winds will
likely be breezy out of the southwest while the sun is up, so
expect gusts to 20 knots through 00z this evening, with 4-8
knots expected overnight, and the gustiness returning after 15z
Saturday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing chances for afternoon
storms this weekend and into early next week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...PL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Columbia SC
550 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     6 NE Dalzell            34.08N 80.38W
07/10/2026                   Sumter             SC   Law Enforcement

            SC Highway Patrol reported tree down along
            Dubose Siding Rd near Raymond Jenkins St.
            Time estimated by Radar.

0430 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     11 NNW Winnsboro        34.52N 81.17W
07/10/2026                   Fairfield          SC   Law Enforcement

            SC Highway Patrol reported tree down along
            US321 near Lewis Store Rd.

0508 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     8 WSW Saint Matthews    33.62N 80.90W
07/10/2026                   Calhoun            SC   Law Enforcement

            SC Highway Patrol reported tree down on
            Burke Rd and Sweetwater Rd. Time estimated
            by Radar.

&&

CRL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Columbia SC
606 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0536 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 N Eastover            33.94N 80.68W
07/10/2026                   Richland           SC   Law Enforcement

            SC Highway Patrol reports power lines down
            over Garners Ferry Rd near the intersection
            on McCords Ferry Rd. Time estimated radar.

&&

BC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Columbia SC
608 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NE Jackson            33.36N 81.76W
07/10/2026                   Aiken              SC   Utility Company

            Utility company reported trees on powerlines
            causing outages near Jackson.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Columbia SC
615 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SSE Lancaster         34.71N 80.77W
07/10/2026                   Lancaster          SC   911 Call Center

            Numerous trees reported down in central
            Lancaster county, from the town of Lancaster
            down to Kershaw.

0515 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 N Kershaw             34.55N 80.59W
07/10/2026                   Lancaster          SC   911 Call Center

            Lancaster county dispatch reported multiple
            trees down around the town of Kershaw, along
            with numerous other reports in the county.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
615 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

SCZ041-137-102300-
Southeastern Orangeburg SC-Bamberg SC-
615 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Bamberg and
south central Orangeburg Counties through 700 PM EDT...

At 615 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lodge, or 9 miles south of Bamberg, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Branchville, Rivers Bridge State Park, and Ehrhardt.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3307 8115 3326 8110 3328 8061 3312 8089
      3309 8088 3306 8090 3307 8092 3310 8094
      3303 8108
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 281DEG 18KT 3316 8097

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

PL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Columbia SC
620 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0557 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     9 SSE Manning           33.58N 80.16W
07/10/2026                   Clarendon          SC   Law Enforcement

            SC Highway Patrol reports tree down over
            Raccoon Rd near the intersection of Shaw Rd.
            Time estimated by radar.

&&

BC