Small Craft Advisory 60, NWS Buffalo, NY

731 
WHUS71 KBUF 290753
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
353 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

LEZ040-041-290900-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0060.000000T0000Z-260729T1800Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
353 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Conditions are no longer hazardous to small craft operators.

$$

LOZ043-044-290900-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0059.000000T0000Z-260729T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
353 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Conditions are no longer hazardous to small craft operators.

$$

LOZ042-290900-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0059.000000T0000Z-260729T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
353 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Conditions are no longer hazardous to small craft operators.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
154 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Lowered precipitation chances across far western New York
through Wednesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected
through Wednesday, with localized heavy rainfall/flooding
possible across parts of the Finger Lakes/North Country into
tonight.

2) Increasingly drier conditions return for the end of the work
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms are
expected through Wednesday, with localized heavy rainfall/flooding
possible across parts of the Finger Lakes/North Country into
tonight.

Latest surface analysis shows a broad surface low/cold front
extending from southern Ontario southwestward across far western New
York and western Pennsylvania. This system will continue to slowly
wobble its way eastward and reach an upper Saint Lawrence Valley-
central New York axis by early this evening...before devolving into
a remnant inverted trough that will slowly drift across eastern New
York tonight and Wednesday as secondary cyclogenesis takes place off
the mid-Atlantic coastline. Overall...the guidance suite has trended
a little faster and further east with the timing and the positioning
of this system over the last 24 hours.

For the afternoon into the early evening hours...still expect fairly
widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms to redevelop out
ahead of the advancing broad low and surface front with diurnal
heating...with the very moist airmass (PWATs of 1.5 to 1.75 inches)
out ahead of the system supporting a continued potential for
localized heavy rainfall/flooding from portions of the Finger Lakes
eastward across the North Country. Meanwhile on the west side of the
cold front/system convective coverage and potential will be notably
lower...however lingering moisture and diurnal heating should still
lead to the redevelopment of some additional scattered showers and
storms this afternoon.

As the surface low/front drifts across central eastern New York and
weakens tonight the axis of deepest moisture will be shunted off to
our east...and this in tandem with the loss of heating will bring an
end to the potential for heavy rainfall along with a general
decrease in shower potential/coverage. This being said...these will
still not end entirely due to the presence of lingering wraparound
moisture and a cyclonic northerly upslope flow that should help to
keep at least some scattered showers in place...particularly for
areas east of the Genesee Valley. Meanwhile...the driest overall
conditions will be found across northern/western portions of the
Niagara Frontier.

On Wednesday the remnant inverted trough will linger across eastern
New York...while aloft the core of the supporting upper level low
will slowly meander its way directly across New York State. Diurnal
heating underneath the upper low's attendant cool pool will result
in leftover wraparound/upslope showers from the nighttime hours
transitioning to more diurnally-driven showers and a few isolated
thunderstorms as we push through the day...particularly from the
Genesee Valley/western Finger Lakes eastward where better/deeper
moisture will be in place. Meanwhile across far western New York
relatively drier air should help to keep shower coverage
considerably more sparse...with mainly dry weather tending to
prevail much of the time.

Key Message 2...Increasingly drier conditions return for the end of
the work week.

Wednesday night through Friday the upper level low and surface wave
will make their way northeastward into the Canadian Maritimes...
while ridging at the surface and aloft settles across the central
and eastern Great Lakes. While lingering moisture and renewed
diurnal heating may still be enough to support some scattered
showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm or two across the
North Country and interior portions of the Finger Lakes on
Thursday...by Friday the aforementioned ridging and associated
drying should be sufficient for a dry day areawide. With the
departure of the upper low and its associated cool pool...high temps
should also recover to seasonable levels (upper 70s to lower 80s)
areawide by the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A slow moving area of low pressure will move across western and
north-central NY through tonight. Multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms are expected across the region with the axis of
heaviest rainfall along and east of a line from the the Finger Lakes
region to the southern Tug Hill region. Flight conditions will
mostly be a mix of VFR/MVFR, however IFR or below is expected in any
showers and thunderstorms through this evening. Flight conditions
will deteriorate tonight with low end MVFR across the Niagara
Frontier and IFR elsewhere.

Slow improvement in flight conditions is expected Wednesday. IFR
conditions will likely continue from the Finger Lakes region to the
eastern Lake Ontario region. The chance for showers and
thunderstorms will increase along and east of the Genesee Valley
through the afternoon. Mostly dry conditions are expected across
KIAG/KBUF/KJHW Wednesday.

Outlook...

Thursday...Mainly VFR. Chance of showers in the afternoon.

Friday through Saturday...VFR.

Sunday...Mainly MVFR/VFR. Low to medium chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
A broad surface low/cold front extending from southern Ontario
southwestward across far western New York will continue to
slowly wobble its way eastward and reach an upper Saint Lawrence
Valley- central New York axis by early this evening. This
system will then devolve into a remnant inverted trough and
slowly drift across eastern New York tonight and Wednesday as
secondary cyclogenesis takes place off the mid- Atlantic
coastline.

On the backside of this system...a moderately brisk northerly to
flow will develop late today and tonight...and this should lead to
the development of lower-end SCA-level conditions along the south
shores of both lakes. Winds and wave action will then gradually
diminish from west to east Wednesday through Thursday...though
locally choppy conditions may still linger along the south shore of
Lake Ontario into Thursday morning.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 PM EDT this evening through
     Wednesday evening for NYZ001-002.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 8 PM EDT this evening through
     Thursday afternoon for NYZ003>006.
     Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday afternoon for NYZ019.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM
         EDT Wednesday for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
         Thursday for LOZ043-044.

&&

DISCUSSION...JJR
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...JJR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
207 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

NYZ001-002-291815-
Niagara-Orleans-
207 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ019-291815-
Chautauqua-
207 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ010>012-020-085-291815-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
207 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-013-014-021-291815-
Jefferson-Lewis-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
207 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms could produce localized heavy
rainfall and flooding into this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ003>006-291815-
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
207 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms could produce localized heavy
rainfall and flooding into this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-291815-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
207 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

JJR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
322 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 AM     Flash Flood      Limestone               42.03N 78.63W
07/28/2026                   Cattaraugus        NY   Public

            Social media report and photo of a culvert
            washed out with road impassable in
            Limestone.

&&

Hitchcock