Small Craft Advisory 59, NWS Buffalo, NY

225 
WHUS71 KBUF 281618
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1218 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

LEZ040-041-290200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0059.260728T1800Z-260729T1800Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1218 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-290200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0059.260729T0000Z-260730T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1218 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-290200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0059.260729T0000Z-260730T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
1218 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

722 
WHUS71 KBUF 282000
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
400 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

LEZ040-041-290900-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0059.000000T0000Z-260729T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0060.260728T2100Z-260729T1800Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
400 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 2 to 4 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-290900-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0059.260729T0000Z-260729T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
400 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-290900-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0059.260729T0000Z-260729T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
400 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

JJR

731 
WHUS71 KBUF 290753
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
353 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

LEZ040-041-290900-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0060.000000T0000Z-260729T1800Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
353 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Conditions are no longer hazardous to small craft operators.

$$

LOZ043-044-290900-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0059.000000T0000Z-260729T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
353 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Conditions are no longer hazardous to small craft operators.

$$

LOZ042-290900-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0059.000000T0000Z-260729T1800Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
353 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Conditions are no longer hazardous to small craft operators.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
159 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased rain amounts across the eastern Lake Ontario region
Tuesday night through Wednesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected
tonight through Wednesday, with heavy downpours and localized
gusty winds.

2) Chances for showers and thunderstorms linger into Thursday, with
drier conditions for the end of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1...Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms
are expected tonight through Wednesday, with heavy downpours and
localized gusty winds.

Current surface analysis depicts a low over southeastern
Wisconsin/northwestern Illinois early this morning, supporting a
warm front to extend southward from it and a cold front to extend
west and northwest across the Wisconsin/Illinois border. This low
will track across the central Great Lakes this morning before
lifting east-northeast across New York state today. Ahead of the low
an area of increasing mid-level winds, steep mid-level lapse rates
and high PWAT values will continue to work its way across far WNY
early this morning. 0-6km wind shear will increase to between 20 and
30 knots while remain less than 20 knots across the Genesee Valley,
limiting the severe thunderstorm potential to far western New York.
This being said, upstream convection, is beginning to work its way
east across the region this morning, where numerous showers and
thunderstorms will continue to move across the region through
Tuesday morning. Conditions are marginally favorable for an isolated
severe thunderstorm across far western New York early this morning,
with gusty winds will remain the favorable hazard. Additionally, due
to the larger PWAT values, expect heavy rain with any stronger
storm.

As mentioned previously, the surface low will track across New York
state today, before becoming nearly stationary across north-central
New York Tuesday night through Wednesday. While showers will taper
off across far western New York later this morning, diurnal heating
within a very soggy environment will support additional showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon. Meanwhile to the east, a low-level jet
will wrap around the surface low, supporting a few strong
thunderstorms where heavy rainfall may lead to localized flooding
across areas of the Finger Lakes eastward into north-central New
York through this evening.

As the surface low settles across eastern New York tonight, wrap
around moisture will support continued chances for showers across
the entirety of the forecast area. There is a Marginal Risk of
Excessive Rainfall for portions of western and north-central NY
through Wednesday.

Key Message 2...Chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected
to linger into Thursday, with drier conditions for the end of the
work week.

An anomalous strong area of surface low pressure will gradually
slide east off the coast of southern New England Thursday. This will
support the plume of moisture to pull east, however some diurnally
driven convection will be possible for areas inland from the lakes.
Otherwise, expect cooler temperatures with highs in the 70s.

High pressure will then move in across the eastern Great Lakes for
for the end of the work week supporting dry and seasonal weather.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At the surface, a weak high pressure ridge exits generally E'ward
and a cold front should drift SE'ward across our region between ~12Z
and ~19Z/Tues. In addition, a low pressure center along the front
should wobble ESE'ward from southeastern Lower MI to east-central PA
and strengthen slightly. Behind the front, a trough lingers over
western and central NY through 06Z/Wed. Our regional surface winds
trend S'erly to SW'erly around 5 knots ahead of the cold front.
Behind the front, surface winds are expected to be NE'erly to
NW'erly around 5 to 10 knots.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist
generally E'ward along and ahead of the cold front. Some of these
storms may produce brief and erratic surface wind gusts up to 30 to
50 knots. Conditions are expected to vary from VFR outside this
convection to MVFR to LIFR in showers/storms with periods of
torrential rainfall. Behind the cold front, scattered to widespread
showers, steady to heavy at times, and widespread low ceilings in
the MVFR to IFR range are expected as primarily NW'erly to N'erly
and moist low-level upslope flow, and wrap-around rain on the
backside of the low pressure system, impact our region. Periodic
mist and MVFR to IFR visibility are expected with these showers.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible behind the surface cold front.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Saturday...Periodic showers and thunderstorms
with non-VFR are expected, especially Tuesday night through
Wednesday evening.

 &&

.MARINE...
Tonight and Tuesday a broad wave of low pressure will settle
southeastward from the Upper Great Lakes into central/eastern New
York...with the low then slowly drifting to the mid-Atlantic
coastline Tuesday night and Wednesday. As this occurs a light to
modest southerly flow out ahead of the low tonight will transition
to an increasingly brisk northerly to northeasterly flow Tuesday and
Tuesday night following the passage of the low. While the finer
details of this transition have yet to be ironed out...this will
likely eventually lead to a period of SCA-worthy conditions along
the southern shores of both lakes from sometime late Tuesday/Tuesday
evening through Wednesday...before winds lighten and turn more
westerly Thursday/Friday and allow for a commensurate decrease in
wave action.

Out ahead of the approaching low...scattered showers and
thunderstorms will also be possible across eastern Lake Erie and
western Lake Ontario into this evening...with more widespread
showers and scattered thunderstorms then expected later tonight and
Tuesday as the low crosses our region. Any storms could produce
locally higher winds and waves, with this potential greatest across
Lake Erie tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight and Tuesday a broad wave of low pressure will settle
southeastward from the Upper Great Lakes into central/eastern New
York...with the low then slowly drifting to the mid-Atlantic
coastline Tuesday night and Wednesday. As this occurs a light to
modest southerly flow out ahead of the low tonight will transition
to an increasingly brisk northerly to northeasterly flow Tuesday and
Tuesday night following the passage of the low. While the finer
details of this transition have yet to be ironed out...this will
likely eventually lead to a period of SCA-worthy conditions along
the southern shores of both lakes from sometime late Tuesday/Tuesday
evening through Wednesday...before winds lighten and turn more
westerly Thursday/Friday and allow for a commensurate decrease in
wave action.

Out ahead of the approaching low...scattered showers and
thunderstorms will also be possible across eastern Lake Erie and
western Lake Ontario into this evening...with more widespread
showers and scattered thunderstorms then expected later tonight and
Tuesday as the low crosses our region. Any storms could produce
locally higher winds and waves, with this potential greatest across
Lake Erie tonight.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...EAJ
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...JJR/TMA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
205 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

NYZ003>008-013-014-021-290615-
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Livingston-
Ontario-Allegany-
205 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall through tonight. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms today will have the potential to
produce heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Marginal risk for Excessive Rainfall through Wednesday. Slow moving
rain showers and thunderstorms Wednesday may produce locally heavy
rainfall resulting in flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-290615-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
205 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms to pass across the lakes early this morning,
producing damaging winds and heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001-002-010>012-019-020-085-290615-
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-
Southern Erie-
205 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall
through 8 AM this morning, with the timing of the storms before dawn.
Damaging winds and heavy rainfall are the main risks. Marginal risk
for Excessive Rainfall today. Showers and thunderstorms will
continue this afternoon where they will be capable of producing heavy
rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Marginal risk for Excessive Rainfall through Wednesday. Slow moving
rain showers and thunderstorms Wednesday may produce locally heavy
rainfall resulting in flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
123 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1228 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Allegany                42.09N 78.49W
07/28/2026                   Cattaraugus        NY   911 Call Center

            Tree down in roadway.

&&